After Another Disappointing October, How Will Birds Re-Tool for ’25?

The Orioles’ 2024 season came to an end in an abrupt and disappointing fashion, as they were swept at home by the Royals in the wild card round. While the pitching and defense really stepped up, the offense didn’t get off the bus. The question of why will be asked all offseason. Were guys still hurt? Did they lack timing coming off the IL? What is wrong with Adley Rutschman? Are the hitting coaches to blame, despite the overall great numbers by the offense over the course of the season?

This is going to be an interesting and important offseason. The window is closing in terms of years with the core. The Birds have won a lot of regular season games the last few years, but there is no postseason success to back it up and we are starting to see cheap years go by for players like Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson. Augmenting the core is needed this offseason. Mike Elias cannot assume that the existing talent and the talent coming behind it will keep up with the sustained success.

So, what needs to happen this offseason to help the 2025 team accomplish their goals? First, let’s take a look at who is or could be coming back, in terms of those under contract. The Orioles have several pre-arbitration players who are locks to be on the team in 2025, barring a trade: Henderson, Colton Cowser, Jordan Westburg, Grayson Rodriguez, Yennier Cano, Jackson Holliday, Heston Kjerstad, and Coby Mayo are all pre-arb guys that likely will be on the Opening Day roster. That is eight players that will make roughly $6M. Felix Bautista is in his first year of arbitration, but is signed for only $1M in 2025.

Dean Kremer and Rutschman are arbitration eligible for the first time and figure to make about $9M between the two. Zach Eflin is under contract in 2025 for $18M. Danny Coulombe has a $4M option that is likely to be picked up.

Between those 13 players, that is roughly $38M (give or take).

Other players under team control (with estimated or definite salaries) are Ramon Urias ($3.7M), Cedric Mullins ($8.5), Gregory Soto ($6M), Seranthony Dominguez ($8M), Ryan Mountcastle ($5.7M), Ryan O’Hearn ($8M), Jorge Mateo ($3.3M), Trevor Rogers ($2.5M), Cionel Perez ($2.2M), Jacob Webb ($2M) and Keegin Akin ($2.3M).  I would guess that some of these guys are back, but not all of them. The cheap salaries are enticing, but the roster spots mean something and the O’s need to upgrade is some of these areas.

If I were to guess, out of that list, Dominguez, Soto, Webb, Rogers and Urias are near locks. That is just over $22M and brings the roster to 18 players and a rough total of $60M. You will also have Kyle Bradish on the payroll, at around $2M.

That means we have an infield of Mayo (who Elias clearly said will be a first baseman going forward even though “he can play third”), Holliday, Gunnar and Westburg. The OF has Cowser and Kjerstad. Adley is your catcher. Urias is your utility infielder. Your rotation locks are Eflin, Rodriguez and Kremer. Rogers is depth. Maybe in the pen, may be the 5^th starter or maybe in AAA. The bullpen has Felix, Cano, Dominguez, Soto, Webb and DC.

This leaves a lot of questions. Do you keep any more of the bullpen arms? According to Fangraphs’ roster resource, Akin has an option. He was very good this year, unless he was put in a high-leverage situation. At that salary and knowing he has an option, I think he makes the team. I know the Orioles like Perez but there is a lot of reason not to keep him and guarantee him a spot. At that small salary, I think he could be traded. The Orioles have done a poor job emphasizing the pen, so I think its imperative to add one more higher-end pen arm and that means a guy like Perez gets squeezed.

Obviously all of this may not happen and this is just my opinion on where things will go but for the sake of argument, if this is where we stand with those guys, that means we need one outfielder, another DH/1^st base type guy, one reliever, two starters, a backup catcher, and a few other bench pieces.

Of course, many of those players are still under team control. Players like Mullins, OHearn, Mountcastle and Mateo could fit some of those roles. The issue is, you need to upgrade somewhere. Mateo makes some sense to keep, especially if he can play the OF. His speed, defense, and ability to hit lefties at a decent clip provide value.

The other three guys are my real questions for this roster in terms of the players under control. The Orioles really need to focus on improving the defense this offseason, so that suggests it would be foolish to get rid of Mullins. Cowser’s ability to play CF helps, but if he moves there, you need a very good defensive left fielder because of the way OPACY now plays out there.

My issues with Mullins are that he is left-handed and tends to have injuries pop up. The O’s need to get more right-handed in the lineup and Mullins just turned 30. Mullins did end the year strong. After July 1, he had a wRC+ of 127, a .352 OBP, .776 OPS and .342 wOBA. He ended the year with a 2.3 fWAR and was “worth” $18.5M.

But the injuries can be a concern, and he can’t hit left-handed pitching. Do they keep him and just acquire a good right-handed 4^th outfielder?  Or do they trade him? This is Mullins’ last year with the O’s, at least in terms of being under team control. It is unlikely they look to extend him, given that their last two first-round picks have been centerfielders, and it is also unlikely they extend him a QO. Yes, its possible he does what Anthony Santander did in 2024, going from unlikely to receive a QO to definitely getting it, but I think everyone has to view that as unlikely at best.

The question then becomes, are they OK with bringing back Mullins and losing him for nothing? If they are, so be it, but I think trading him is something that should be investigated. Can they get something that helps right now? Maybe the high leverage reliever? Maybe more prospect depth that you could argue is suddenly lacking?

Then there is O’Hearn and Mountcastle. O’Hearn makes sense as a platoon guy who is LH and can produce against righties. But the production isn’t great, and you could argue that spending $8M on him is a waste of resources. Mountcastle is the best defensive first baseman on the team, but Mayo is going to play there, and I am not sure it’s wise to bring Mounty back to be a DH-type guy. Mountcastle is a clubhouse favorite, but he is also everything that was wrong with the offense at the end of the year: chases too much, does not walk, and not disciplined at the plate. He hammers the ball and could easily pop an .850 OPS/35 homer season. I thought he would have a huge 2024, but the injury and poor play stopped that from happening. I think he will have value in trade. Yes, he struggles at times, but he will be better out of OPACY. If he goes to a more righty-friendly park, he will produce if he stays healthy.

Out of those three, I think Mullins being kept is the most likely, with O’Hearn next and Mounty a distant third.

Even if the Orioles keep Mateo, Mullins and O’Hearn, that gives them a payroll that is just roughly $82M for 21 players.

That means they still need five players. Two are bench players, two starting pitchers, and your high-leverage reliever. Rogers and Cade Povich are candidates to be starters. The bench spots are one backup catcher and one 4^th outfielder that can often play against lefties.

In his year end press conference, Elias talked about how the payroll will increase. The Orioles’ 2024 Opening Day payroll was about $93M and went up as the season went on. They definitely ended with a payroll that was into nine figures. So, if it increases, it can’t just be because of arbitration raises, because even if the O’s keep most of these guys, they still don’t cone close to the 2024 payroll. The Orioles losing (in my scenario) Corbin Burnes, Mountcastle, James McCann, Anthony Santander, John Means, Tyler Wells, and Perez means $38ishM is coming off the payroll. There are a few others that also come off, so lets just call it around $40M coming off the payroll. The raises I mentioned just don’t bump the payroll way up.

If Elias is being truthful, how does the money get spent for such few players?  Will they push for Blake Snell? He is likely to get fewer years and lower total dollars than Burnes. There are good starters to spend on. There are relievers to spend on. There will always be players to trade for that could add to the payroll. How the Orioles navigate this will be interesting. Who they keep, who they non-tender and who they trade will shape what they do the rest of the offseason.