Last night, I posted my detailed AL East predictions. This morning, I’ll run over those quickly, before moving on to some league-wide prognostications. Enjoy!
American League
East
New York Yankees: 94-68
He’s happy to be in New York, but how long will Giancarlo Stanton remain happy when his rookie manager keeps penciling him as the DH instead of in the outfield? The power will be at full capacity, in both the lineup and the bullpen. The Yankees will make a serious run at their 28th World Championship.
Baltimore Orioles: 89-73
Manny Machado is still in Birdland, for now. Can a revamped rotation propel the Orioles back to the prominence that made them the American League’s winningest franchise from 2012-16? If so, it’ll take a one-game playoff for their dreams of ending Baltimore’s 35-year World Series drought to live on.
Boston Red Sox: 88-74
J.D. Martinez has come to Beantown to fill the void left by Big Papi’s absence. Can an aging ball club win its third consecutive division crown and make a run at their fourth World Championship in 14 years? Much like the Yankees, they’ll have to overcome a rookie manager to do so.
Toronto Blue Jays: 78-84
One of the best units in baseball in 2016, the Jays starting rotation took a step back in 2017. This staff needs to rebound in a big way if Toronto looks to rekindle the magic that saw them play in consecutive Championship Series in ‘15/’16.
Tampa Bay Rays: 72-90
They traded or got rid of everybody not named Kevin Kiermaier and Chris Archer. They’ll never admit it, but the organization saw the writing on the wall and decided to mail it in for 2018, using veterans Denard Span and Carlos Gomez as covers for a franchise that gave up before the season started.
Central
Cleveland Indians: 94-68
Corey Kluber is a stud. Andrew Miller leads one of the league’s best bullpens. Francisco Lindor is an MVP candidate every year. It took a 22-game winning streak last summer to remind the Indians who they were. This year, the sour taste of a wasted October opportunity is all the motivation they’ll need.
Minnesota Twins: 85-77
Baseball’s biggest surprise in 2017, the Twins became the first team to lose 100 games one season, and then make the playoffs the next. Still, they were sellers at the deadline and then played above their heads. They’ll improve with the additions of Jake Odorizzi and Lance Lynn, but not enough to make it to consecutive Octobers.
Detroit Tigers: 76-86
Michael Fulmer is a bona fide starter for the Tigers, but if they want to contend, they’ll need Jordan Zimmerman to finally earn his contract, Daniel Norris to become the player they expected him to be, and they’ll need to catch lightning in a bottle with Francisco Liriano. Miguel Cabrera hitting like Miguel Cabrera again would also go a long way.
Chicago White Sox: 74-88
This is a team loaded with young talent that will drop your jaw with some highlight plays and some rookie mistakes. Carlos Rodon missing the first two months is huge blow, but strong starts by Lucas Giolito and Carson Fulmer could help bridge the gap. This team is coming, they’re just not here yet.
Kansas City Royals: 70-92
Whit Merrifield is a star on the rise, and Mike Moustakas is back to form a solid middle of the order with Salvador Perez. Danny Duffy is the anchor of the staff, but if the downward trend from starters Jason Hammel and Ian Kennedy continues, it’s going to be a long, hot summer in Kansas City. The pitching will ultimately let this team down.
West
Houston Astros: 99-63
The rich got richer. The defending World Champions have Justin Verlander for a full season and acquired Gerrit Cole in a trade with the Pirates. The starting rotation might be the best in the AL, and the lineup is filled with young, scary talent that keeps getting better, including the reigning AL MVP, Jose Altuve. The only reason they don’t win 100 games is a slight WS hangover and a middling bullpen. Still, this team has a legitimate chance to be the first repeat champs since the ‘98/’99 Yankees.
Los Angeles Angels: 87-75
Mike Trout should be enough to make any team competitive, but the Angels finally have a ton of talent around him in Justin Upton, Andrelton Simmons, Zack Cozart, Ian Kinsler, and Albert Pujols. Shohei Ohtani could have some growing pains, but he’ll contribute to an improving pitching staff. If Garrett Richards returns to his ace form following two injury plagued seasons, the Angels will be in the playoff discussion all season.
Seattle Mariners: 82-80
The injury bug has bitten the Mariners this spring. Still, the star power of Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz will keep the Mariners relevant offensively. They simply need more from their starting rotation. Mike Leake and a healthy Felix Hernandez could pay dividends. Though they usually remain relevant through August, the Mariners have a tendency to fade down the stretch. This year will be no different.
Texas Rangers: 78-84
They’ll mash the ball out of the park. There’s no question about that. But as is usually the case, if you can’t pitch, you can’t win. After Cole Hamels, the Rangers can’t pitch. Unless it’s the year 2011. Is it 2011? With a pitching staff containing Hamels, Tim Lincecum, Doug Fister, and Matt Moore, it can be hard to tell.
Oakland Athletics: 69-93
Quick, without looking, name five players on the Oakland Athletics. You can’t? Neither can anybody outside of Oakland. This is a bad baseball team that is far removed from the Moneyball days. Khris Davis is being wasted. But Jonathon Lucroy is a nice addition to any team.
PLAYOFFS
WC: Red Sox d. Orioles
ALDS: Astros d. Red Sox, Yankees d. Indians
ALCS: Yankees d. Astros
AWARDS
MVP: Mike Trout
Cy Young: Justin Verlander
Manager of the Year: Buck Showalter
National League
East
Washington Nationals: 95-67
The rotation returns four 13+ games winners and three starters with sub-3.00 ERA’s. Gio Gonzalez should come back down to earth a bit, but Tanner Roark should rebound a bit, so no harm, no foul. Full seasons from Adam Eaton and Trea Turner mean big things for an already potent offense led by impending free agent Bryce Harper. Much like Baltimore and Boston, the window is closing in D.C. They’ll run away with this division and make a deep run into October.
New York Mets: 84-78
The pitching could be phenomenal in Queens this summer. If Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto stay healthy, the offense could be good. They’ll definitely hit a lot of home runs with the additions of Todd Frazier and Jay Bruce. The x-factor here is a healthy, productive Matt Harvey.
Philadelphia Phillies: 78-84
Jake Arrieta and Aaron Nola form a nice one-two punch at the top of that rotation. Carlos Santana should help pace the offense along with Rhys Hoskins and Maikel Franco. This team has sneaky power and could be a sleeper in the National League if A LOT of things go right. They still need another arm though. Watch out in 2019 though. They’ll be major players for some big free agents next offseason.
Atlanta Braves: 76-86
This is a young, talented roster. One day Dansby Swanson, Ozzie Albies, and Ronald Acuna will be household names. Freddie Freeman already is, and Nick Markakis is no slouch. Still, this team lacks any quality starting pitching, and pitching wins ballgames. Braves will be here to stay in 2019.
Miami Marlins: 58-104
Giancarlo Stanton? Gone. Christian Yelich? Gone. Marcell Ozuna? Gone. Dee Gordon? Gone. J.T. Realmuto is the only one left, and he’s starting the year on the DL. This is the worst team in baseball, by a wide margin.
Central
Chicago Cubs: 92-70
The offense is potent, led by Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo. The pitching staff can be dominant, led by Jon Lester and Yu Darvish. It’s the mid-tier starters in Tyler Chatwood and Kyle Hendricks that could make or break this season. Still, the Cubs will be back in the playoffs for the third straight season.
St. Louis Cardinals: 88-74
Luke Weaver and Carlos Martinez are young, stud pitchers. Jack Flaherty could join them in that conversation. Adam Wainwright is basically done. This team will be led to the postseason, however, by its All-World outfield of Marcell Ozuna, Tommy Pham, and Dexter Fowler. The Cardinals will be back where they belong: playing in October.
Milwaukee Brewers: 88-74
The Cardinals need only look in their own division to find an outfield to match theirs. Christian Yelich, Domingo Santana, and Lorenzo Cain will pace this team. The outfield is so loaded, Keon Broxton has been demoted and Ryan Braun will likely move to first base. The pitching staff will sneak up on people with Zach Davies, Jhoulys Chacin, and Chase Anderson. The Brewers will be in the postseason conversation till the end.
Cincinnati Reds: 74-88
The Reds have a lot of power but don’t score a lot of runs. They also don’t have much in the ways of pitching. The staff has a couple of young guns with potential, but not enough to keep pace in a stacked division.
Pittsburgh Pirates: 70-92
They traded away Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole. The rotation is mediocre at best, and the offense has no real threats outside of Josh Bell. The Pirates were so good for a few years, and have nothing to show for it now. It could be a long rebuild in Pittsburgh.
West
Arizona Diamondbacks 92-70
The starting rotation is absolutely loaded, and they’re all under the age of 30, with the exception of Zack Greinke. Robby Ray is filthy, and Taijuan Walker finally became the player we all expected when he was a top prospect in Seattle. The offense is paced by Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, and A.J. Pollock. The loss of J.D. Martinez stings, but they’ll go make another trade at the deadline to push them over the top if they have to.
Los Angeles Dodgers: 90-72
Any staff anchored by Clayton Kershaw already has an edge. The rest of the rotation falls in line nicely behind Kershaw, but Rich Hill needs to find a way to get rid of the blister problem that has plagued him his entire career. Kenta Maeda might be their worst starter, and he’s still pretty damn good. The loss of Justin Turner hurts, but this team will weather the storm until he returns.
Colorado Rockies: 86-76
It’s the same story every year with this team. They hit, but can they pitch? Last year they pitched a little bit and won 87 games. Jon Gray needs to stay healthy, and Kyle Freeland needs to build on a strong rookie campaign and continue to progress. Still, this team takes a slight step back because of the division they play in and the fact that Mark Reynolds (30 HR, 97 RBI) is no longer in the lineup.
San Francisco Giants 78-84
Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria are really nice additions. Austin Jackson is a nice role player. But the injuries to Madison Bumgarner and Jeff Samardzija really hurt this team. Unless they make another trade for a legitimate starter, the Giants will be on the outside looking in come October, especially when you consider they play the Dodgers ten times in April. An early hole could be too much to crawl out of.
San Diego Padres: 72-90
Eric Hosmer is a great addition and will combine with Wil Myers and Hunter Renfro to provide some much needed punch to that lineup. But the Padres have no pitching whatsoever and don’t seem to have much on the horizon that can help this year. Plus, Hosmer is hitting in some cavernous parks in the NL West. It could be another long year is San Diego, but they’re headed in the right direction.
PLAYOFFS
Play-in Game: Cardinals d. Brewers
WC: Dodgers d. Cardinals
NLDS: Nationals d. Dodgers, Diamondbacks d. Cubs
NLCS: Nationals d. Diamondbacks
WS: Nationals d. Yankees
AWARDS
MVP: Paul Goldschmidt
Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
Rookie of the Year: Ronald Acuna
Manager of the Year: Mike Matheny
