This is a weekly column that dives into eight random thoughts about the Orioles/MLB. Why eight? It’s a nod to Cal Ripken Jr. of course. That, and doing 2,632 of these would be a little overboard.
This week, we’re making predictions for the 2015 season, just like everyone else has in recent days. Just remember, they mean nothing. They are simply one man’s opinion. Be sure to share yours in the comments section. ~ A.S.
1. (NL West) – This division typically comes down to two teams, at least that’s what recent memory tells us. The Dodgers and Giants have been the class of the division for years, but there could be a third party-crasher this season.
The Padres are one of those “darling” teams that everyone seems to be picking. I like how aggressive San Diego was this offseason in totally revamping their offense, especially in the outfield. BUT – They forgot a few key parts in constructing a roster. Pitching and defense are still going to be an issue for the Friars. Outside of James Shields (who is barely worthy of the “Big Game” nickname he’s had bestowed upon him), they are going to trot out a very unproven rotation. The right-handedness of their lineup and the defense is what concerns me even more.
I think the Dodgers are a head better than everyone else in this division. Clayton Kershaw leads a strong top of the rotation and I don’t think they will have much trouble continuing to score runs, even without Matt Kemp and Dee Gordon around. The defending champion Giants will take a step back (as they normally do in odd-numbered years). The Rockies and Diamondbacks will duke it out in familiar territory – the basement.
Dodgers 90-72
Padres 83-79
Giants 79-83
Rockies 76-86
Diamondbacks 71-91
2. (NL Central) – There are two World Series contenders in this division. One (the Cardinals) is a World Series contender virtually every year. The other (the Pirates) is rising, and quickly. These two will go back and forth all season long for the division, and I think this is the year the Buccos finally get past St. Louis. Pittsburgh has never won the Central Division, having last captured the EAST back in 1992.
With two straight Wild Card berths under their belt, this is the year for the Pirates. Andrew McCutchen might not have his trademark locks any more, but he still has just about the most talent of anyone in baseball. None of this means the Cardinals will be left in the dust, however. Expect to see the Redbirds making noise as well.
The real mystery of this division is the Cubs. They are a team on the rise for sure, and while some have picked them to do the unthinkable and win their first World Series since 1908, I can’t go nearly that far. Their young core led by Kris Bryant will be ready to make a serious impact – in 2016. They’ll still be good enough to compete this season, especially since the Brewers and Reds simply won’t be.
Pirates 93-69
Cardinals 91-71*
Cubs 85-77
Brewers 73-89
Reds 69-93
3. (NL East) – There isn’t a division in baseball that I’m more confident in picking than the NL East. The Phillies are going to prove to everyone…just how bad they are. The Nationals should win this one going away. Their rotation is surreal and there’s just enough offense in that Bryce Harper-powered lineup to win another division crown.
The Braves have made it clear to just about everyone that they are a few years away from competing. They are building their way towards a new stadium and being in contention then. That’s left that window open – wide open – for the Nats to continue dominating. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Mets and Marlins shock a few people and win some games. New York has some really good young pitching as Matt Harvey returns and Giancarlo Stanton will power what could be the best outfield in baseball.
Nationals 98-64
Marlins 87-75*
Mets 83-79
Braves 70-92
Phillies 65-97
4. (AL West) – Count me as the latest member of the bandwagon in the Emerald City. I’m all in on the Mariners. It’s not just what they’ve done to build a nice lineup centered around Robinson Cano and now Nelson Cruz, but it’s the pitching staff. Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma and some young studs like James Paxton are going to carry this team a long way.
This division is going through a weird transition with the A’s seeming to slide and even Houston making strides. There’s a lot of young talent, but also lots of other intriguing storylines. Mike Trout might be the best player in baseball, but there are older players like Albert Pujols and Jered Weaver that could hamper the Angels. Not to mention the drama surrounding Josh Hamilton.
Texas has a big injury issue with Yu Darvish, but I have a feeling the return of Prince Fielder will help a bit. Houston is intriguing, yet young.
Mariners 93-69
Angels 86-76
Astros 80-82
Rangers 73-89
Athletics 72-90
5. (AL Central) – This is the hardest division in baseball to predict in my eyes.
Aside from the Twins, I feel like any team can win it. I think Paul Molitor (one of my favorites growing up) will have trouble getting Minnesota on the right track quickly, but there’s a future there. Throw the other four teams up in a blender and they could come out in any order.
Many are betting on the Indians, but I don’t think they have enough pitching. The Tigers could be primed for a step back without Max Scherzer, but David Price is still there, and so is that Justin Verlander guy. The Royals are still going to be very good, but they lost a few pieces in the offseason. The White Sox are a big question mark to me, but they will surprise some teams. Jose Abreu is a superstar, and many forget that they acquired Jeff Samardzija to pair with Chris Sale in the rotation.
White Sox 88-74
Tigers 87-75*
Indians 82-80
Royals 76-86
Twins 69-93
6. (AL East) – This is what you really came here for right?
Finally, some Orioles predictions are here. The O’s are going to get more of a challenge in the AL East this season, but I think that they win back-to-back division titles for the first time since the 70s.
The Red Sox are better and the Blue Jays look young and dangerous. I don’t entirely buy into what the Yankees are doing because despite losing Derek Jeter to retirement, they are somehow still aging. Masahiro Tanaka’s elbow scares me and I don’t think he can be relied on long term. The Rays lost a lot in terms of a brilliant manager and general manager.
The Orioles are already dealing with some injury issues with Matt Wieters and J.J. Hardy set to start the year on the DL, but there is depth there. There’s also depth in the pitching staff. Six respectable starters will give the O’s options going forward. People hammer Ubaldo Jimenez, but it’s important to remember that the Birds won the division last year by 12 games without any contribution from him. Imagine if he’s halfway decent this year.
Orioles 91-71
Red Sox 89-73*
Blue Jays 85-77
Yankees 80-82
Rays 73-89
7. (Playoff predictions) – In the National League, give me the Cardinals hosting the Marlins in the Wild Card Game and prevailing. They’ll advance to face the Nationals, where they’ll fall. That sets up an epic division series on the other side between the Pirates and Dodgers. I like Pittsburgh with some playoff woes continuing for Los Angeles.
The Pirates will dispatch of the Nationals and advance to their first World Series since 1979. We won’t talk about that.
In the American League, I like the Red Sox to knock off the Tigers in the Wild Card game from Fenway Park. That sets them up to head west where they’ll lose to the Mariners in the division series. The other division series will feature the Orioles taking out an AL Central team for the second straight year, this time in the White Sox. The O’s will then need seven games to beat the Mariners, and Nelson Cruz, in an epic seven-game ALCS.
Unfortunately for the O’s, my meaningless gut tells me that a repeat of 1979 is in order, with Pittsburgh prevailing over the Birds in the World Series.
NL Wild Card – Cardinals over Marlins
NLDS – Nationals over Cardinals
NLDS- Pirates over Dodgers
NLCS- Pirates over Nationals
AL Wild Card- Red Sox over Tigers
ALDS- Mariners over Red Sox
ALDS- Orioles over White Sox
ALCS- Orioles over Mariners
World Series – Pirates over Orioles
8. (Orioles predictions) – Alright, now that the mud and the muck is over, let’s get down to some specific predictions about the Orioles. Remember that none of this matters. It’s all a gut feeling, and a lot of these are simply going to be bold predictions.
* Ubaldo Jimenez is going to be a 10-game winner this year and have an ERA under 4.00. Bold. I told you.
* Alejandro De Aza and Travis Snider are going to fill in admirably in the corner outfield spots. They won’t be All-Stars, but they will get the job done.
* Chris Davis won’t hit 53 home runs like two years ago, but he will hit more than 35, and he’ll turn it into a nice contract in the offseason – from someone other than the Orioles.
* Matt Wieters catches less than 100 games. That might not be a “bold” prediction, but it’s one that would keep him in Baltimore next year, likely on a one-year deal.
* Manny Machado will have at least 20 stolen bases this season. It’s that new-found confidence in knees that work.
* Dylan Bundy doesn’t appear in the majors this season, but Hunter Harvey does.
* Bud Norris takes a step back this season, which actually helps the Orioles in the sense that he doesn’t generate enough free-agent buzz to leave the team.
* The Orioles will NEED all six of their starting pitchers, throughout the year. Injuries, fatigue and a number of other circumstances will make them happy they didn’t trade someone like Bud Norris or Miguel Gonzalez this offseason.
Let me know what you think of my predictions in the comments. Who are your picks to win each division? What’s your World Series pick?
2 Responses
I think the O’s (as much as i hate ta say it) will not win the east this year,infact not even second but third, i mean yeah the pitching looks pretty good but minus Cruz and Markakis thats alot of hits and HRs lost from last years club! And we did next to nothing to compensate for it this off season, But…i think the pitching depth from the bullpen, 3 solid starters,and an offense to play small ball (much like KC did last year) will be enough to to get us that wildcard 5 seed to beat are neighbors from the north Bluejays, but then we’ll lose the divisional series to Seattle in 6 games, who will then lose to Boston in a close 7, after the Sox beat the Angels in a sweep,and then move on to the World Series to get beat by the Dodgers! I mean I hope im wrong because I bleed orange and black from the East,but realistically we’re not ready for what lyes ahead this season however the chips may fall!
Cruz and Nick were a huge loss, but statisticaly they CAN get those bats back with what they have and also gain defense. I agree on the back to back. I believe speed will play a roll this year.