Following a second straight loss to the Cleveland Guardians, the Orioles have now lost five games in a row for the first time in over two years. The fan base is in full on panic mode, questioning Mike Elias, slamming Brandon Hyde and wondering if the O’s have enough to make a playoff run.
Despite the losing streak and the irrational wailing of fans, the O’s still have the 4th best winning percentage in baseball, the best run differential in the AL (3rd in all of MLB), are only two games back of the Yankees, and probably aren’t at risk of needing to rebuild at the trading deadline.
In other words, to quote Aaron Rodgers, everyone needs to R-E-L-A-X. This is still an extremely talented team with a great offense and defense, one ace and another top-of-the-rotation starter that figures to keep getting better. They have a lot of the pieces you need to win in October.
This isn’t to say this is a perfect team and doesn’t need help. The pitching injuries have really put this team in a bind. Dean Kremer will be back soon and that helps some but doesn’t really address the larger concerns.
It is imperative that the Orioles add two high leverage relievers and one middle-of-the-rotation starter.
For me, I would be making a push for Andrew Nardi from the Marlins and Carlos Estevez of the Angels. There are other names out there that I like and targets could change depending on if certain teams sell, but Nardi has been a guy that has been on my radar since the offseason. He has excellent statcast numbers, a high K rate, a low BB rate and misses bats. His ERA is elevated right now but his expected stats are far better. With the higher ERA, hopefully the price isn’t too high either. Nardi was also good last year and doesn’t become arbitration eligible until 2026. Estevez is a pending FA and is a solid reliever who will get strikeouts and not walk guys. He isn’t an elite guy but he is very solid and if you put him with Nardi, Craig Kimbrel and eventually Danny Coulombe, I think that is an excellent back of the pen. The Angels and Marlins are definitely selling, so those two represent players who could/should be available.
As for a starter, I am very much against Garret Crochet, at least for what it sounds like it will take to acquire him. He isn’t likely to help in the rotation this October and I think you have to worry about him breaking down in 2025. I am not trading Coby Mayo, Jackson Holliday or Samuel Basallo (more on these guys later) in a deal for him. There is just far too much risk with Crochet and considering he won’t help you like you need him to in October, I don’t agree with the calls to acquire him.
Crochet’s teammate Erick Fedde is another one you hear about. If it costs very little, sure I would take the shot. He wasn’t good in his first stint in MLB and then he went to the KBO, learned a sweeper, won their version of the Cy Young and came back here and has been pitching relatively well. Still, he doesn’t have the statcast or peripheral stats that lead me to believe he is as good as his ERA indicates, and I would personally be looking for an upgrade over him or at least someone with a better profile for October.
An under the radar name that I like is Reid Detmers. The Angels may not want to trade him, as he has a lot of team control remaining, but they optioned him and haven’t been happy with his progress. Still, despite an ERA over 6, his statcast numbers are solid, he misses a lot of bats, gets a lot of Ks, doesn’t have a high walk rate, his xERA is in the mid 3s and his FIP is 4.37, far less than his actual ERA. There is a lot to work with there and coming to this team and Oriole Park at Camden Yards could help him (he has a high HR rate). The Angels aren’t exactly a great organization and they have had some development issues, so it stands to reason a change of scenery could be beneficial. A Detmers/Estevez package could be something worth exploring.
As of now, this trade deadline is shaping out to be one with very little available. Right now, you don’t have many sellers and teams who could sell have injury issues (the Marlins with Braxton Garrett being the latest example). So, you may have to be a little creative. Now, we will see if teams like the Giants, Pirates, Twins, Tigers and others become sellers. If they do, that could change the dynamic some.
Besides the pitching, the biggest issue the Orioles have is that they are simply relying on too many mediocre to bad players in too many big situations. I have talked about the pen but part of that need is because Yennier Cano just isn’t that guy anymore. His walk rate is too high and he is leaving way too many pitches up in the zone. He isn’t a dime a dozen reliever, as he is better than that, but he’s not the elite set up guy we hoped he would be and that has hurt the team at times.
The O’s are also giving far too many at bats to guys who are middling at best veterans. The Orioles have elite hitting prospects, many of whom are ready to be here (Basallo is the exception). Holliday needs to be able to play in the field again and I would anticipate that happening after the All-Star break but as soon as he’s ready, he needs to be here. Mayo has been ready to be here since Spring Training. Now that he is back from his rib injury, he is tearing the cover off the ball again and it’s time for him to be here.
Heston Kjerstad and Colton Cowser need to be playing more. Yes, I know Cowser hasn’t had great numbers but all the underlying stats point to him being very unlucky. He has a great approach, is hitting the ball hard and is using all fields. He also is an elite defender (but needs to get that strong arm under control). Kjerstad has big power and a solid hit tool. He can hit righties and lefties and while the defense is a little suspect, he needs to be in there.
I am not calling for them to completely bench the vets but these kids should be starting three to five games a week. The O’s have some other potential internal answers to some of these questions, like Chayce McDermott who could help in the rotation or, more likely, the pen later on in the season.
One thing I do not want to see Elias do is making some panic move and trading any of the big three prospects. There is no one available or likely to become available who he should trade Holliday, Mayo or Basallo for. Those three, along with Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman will be a devastating top five in the lineup and will be supported by other high end bats like Jordan Westburg and the aforementioned Cowser and Kjerstad. Elite positional prospects tend to work out and the O’s have shown that they can develop these guys. Mayo won’t be at third long term and Basallo will catch some but there are plenty of ways to have all these guys on the team, so this whole concept of “well you don’t need them because of Adley or Westburg or whoever” is flat out wrong.
The O’s have other prospects to get these deals done, so there is no need to trade either of those three big guns. Kjerstad can be on the board, and while I am not sure anyone is available to justify that either, that remains to be seen. However, guys like Connor Norby, Dylan Beavers, Kyle Stowers, Enrique Bradfield and others should be available. I do have a list of five players that while I would move them, I hope we don’t. All of them are younger International players with the exception of Michael Forret. The other names are Luis DeLeon, Joshua Liranzo, Leandro Arias and Thomas Sosa.
We have a good team here. It’s a great time to be a fan but this is the biggest test Elias has faced since the team ascended from rebuild mode.
It’s time to unload some of these prospects and help this team get over the hump – just not the elite guys.
