Coming off of their first winning month in half a decade, the Orioles find themselves in a position they haven’t seen in quite a long time, where they have multiple desirable players approaching the trade deadline. As of July 11th, the O’s sit at 43-44. Last season it took until September 4th for the Birds to reach their 43rd win, while in the process, accumulating 92 losses. The entire MLB is on notice as the Orioles are on their longest winning streak since 2005, and this roster is starting to look more like a team rather than a bunch of low-cost personnel waiting for prospects to develop. More teams are paying attention to the Orioles, meaning more teams will seek players to acquire. It is clear that this rebuild is moving onward and upward, but it is debatable if the O’s are in a position to make a run. That’s why I expect some action or consideration from GM Mike Elias at the trade deadline this year.
Although there is a little less than a month until that date arrives, the rumor mill always turns.
On June 30th, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported that former Oriole manager Buck Showalter and the New York Mets have checked in on the status of DH Trey Mancini and that they are not the only ones who have expressed interest in the fan-favorite. There have been trade rumors surrounding Mancini for the better part of two years now, which is understandable. Mancini’s bat has stayed consistent in his years returned from his battle with colon cancer, so any team trying to get a half-year rental or a head start in extension talks will inquire. A big reason Mancini is a hotly debated player to trade is that he’s earned himself the title of being a fan favorite around Baltimore. However, fans and analysts alike have started to question his fit on this rising O’s team. As Mancini has gotten older, his range of positions has slimmed, and we now only see him at first base and the DH spot. This is causing issues because the O’s have Ryan Mountcastle in a very similar situation, which limits the flexibility of manager Brandon Hyde at the DH position. Things are further complicated when rookie catcher Adley Rutschman does not start at catcher with the O’s still wanting his bat in the lineup, or when OF Anthony Santander is no longer able to play the outfield every day.
Per reports by Dan Connolly of the Athletic, the Orioles have yet to offer Mancini a contract extension, making it unlikely for Mancini to return after the season ends. Still, Mancini has taken the role of leader in the clubhouse and has helped build a tight-knit team that has the potential to crumble if broken up in trade. In a press conference on July 9th, when asked about the trade deadline, Mike Elias said, “We do everything from a very global, very thoughtful perspective about what is the right thing to do for the health of the Orioles franchise.”
This indicates Elias’s understanding of the impact a trade might have on the clubhouse and the fans watching this magical run. Later in this press conference, when directly asked about how this could affect the locker room, he mentioned that he understands that everything he does or does not do has trade-offs. In the case of Mancini, the tradeoff would likely be a quality prospect or MLB-ready starter in exchange for a locker room leader and productive hitter. Elias has to understand the risk and consider how worth this trade might be for, as he said, the health of the Orioles franchise.
This mentality will come into play for other veterans on the team that are also on expiring contracts such as starting pitcher Jordan Lyles (club option at the end of the season) and second baseman Rougned Odor. With his personally in the dugout, it is evident how Odor has also taken the role of leader for this extraordinarily young team, and Lyles has undertaken a crucial spot in the rotation with John Means missing. Trading Odor reminds me of the trade Elias made last year when he sent then starting shortstop Freddy Galvis to Philadelphia for RHP Tyler Burch, trading veteran band-aid-type players for prospects with higher potential. If Elias wants to completely sell, which is a possibility, outfielders like Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays could come into question. Heyman reported that the O’s would “have to be blown away” to trade those two fundamental pieces of this roster. Two weeks ago, it seemed possible for either of these players to get moved, but sitting a game below .500, that now seems like the longest of long shots. To me, the players under contract past this season that are younger than 30 are not the priority to move because a lot can change with this team in the next year or two, especially at this pace.
For eager fans that have sat with a rebuilding team since Baltimore legends Adam Jones, Manny Machado, and J.J. Hardy were around, making a run for the playoffs as soon as possible seems enticing. However, Elias will likely not risk blowing up his rebuild plan for a sliver of a chance of sneaking into a wild card spot. This is undoubtedly the best choice, as the Orioles still have a farm full of Major League talents waiting in the stables. Top pitcher Grayson Rodriguez‘s healing process is said to be moving right along, pitcher DLHall has been lights out, infielder Gunnar Henderson is now the 5th ranked prospect in all MLB and will be in Los Angeles for the Futures Game, and the list goes on. Elias mentioned that Hall, Henderson, and a handful of others could come up at any moment, which could fuel this fiery O’s team even more. This rebuild looks as though it is ahead of schedule, which it is, but not to the point of blowing up the farm system for high-quality starters.
Before this hot streak, it sounded like anybody could be on the table. Heyman reported on June 30th that Anthony Santander could have more availability than the other outfielders previously mentioned. However, as said previously, he is under contract until 2024 which would be too long of a commitment for teams seeking a rental, such as the Yankees. Another name that seems unlikely to be traded at this point and has almost randomly popped up on the scene this year is closer Jorge López. Relief pitching is always in high demand, especially for the teams looking to make a run. López had a rough week last week but has shaken his short slump to return to the closer spot, and secured a spot in the bullpen for the All-Star game. That accolade increases his value but also makes him harder to give away emotionally. I understand Elias has no reason to care about a fan’s feelings, but again, he knows the trade-offs.
I believe Elias when he says he’ll keep a “global perspective” when it comes to the trade deadline because not doing so would be foolish. He and the people he works with are not going to throw away the rebuild for a shot to lose to the AL Central winner in a best-of-three, but at the same time, they won’t want to squander an opportunity to compete without doing their due diligence.
Elias has done well at picking and choosing spots to get ahead in terms of trades or otherwise, and I doubt he’ll throw that mentality away after winning some unexpected games.
