“McDowell Effect” Concern Greater than Losing Streak

While the Orioles’ 5-game losing streak (as of Sunday’s game against the Rays) is concerning, it is breaking down the root causes that should provide the most heart palpitations for O’s fans. While last year’s playoff-bound Orioles also went through a 5-game losing streak (as of last May 31), last year’s team wasn’t wearing out the bullpen the way the 2013 team is doing.

Last year’s team, in spots, couldn’t get clutch hits and was one of the league leaders in errors back in late May/early June. But those things were fixable and they indeed turned things around after the All-Star break.

The 2013 Birds are not either of those problematic things, but instead are a great hitting team. The 2013 Birds have two of the league leaders in extra-base hits in Manny Machado and Chris Davis, and have several others hitting well above .300. This year’s team just can’t pitch its starters deep into games, and that’s leading to concerns about a possible “McDowell Effect” taking place in the second half of the year.

Turn back the clock to 1996 and remember Roger McDowell. The former ’86 World Series-winning Met reliever was brought in to help bolster those O’s by GM Pat Gillick and his former manager with the Mets, Davey Johnson.

Early in the season, McDowell was THE go-to guy for Johnson in tight situations, and get-to situations where Randy Myers was the final answer for the Orioles, with 31 saves in ’96.

McDowell, now the pitching coach of the Atlanta Braves, unsurprisingly was one of the league leaders in bullpen innings in ‘96 until he literally wore out. Johnson’s constant reliance on McDowell was a factor in the pitcher struggling in the second half of the season, then seeing his season end with shoulder surgery in mid-August just as the O’s were on their way to a playoff berth.

So far this season, only Wei-Yin Chen has been the consistent starter manager Buck Showalter had hoped for. With Jason Hammel’s inexplicable ERA struggles, despite a 5-2 record, and injuries to Chen and Miguel Gonzalez, and the see-saw pitching of veteran Freddy Garcia the bullpen has been Showalter’s lone consistent go-to.

Putting aside Jim Johnson’s embarrassing blown saves against the Padres and Rays, the bullpen has been the Orioles’ strongest pitching unit, among the league leaders in holds and saves.

Yet the problem is that they are being worn out, especially Darren O’Day and Brian Matusz, who are called upon in seemingly every close game to preserve a lead or tie. That’s why the struggling Jake Arrieta is back again, to at least spell those two, Tommy Hunter, and the other pen members.

All the critics who slammed the O’s for not trading for a top-line pitcher in the offseason, or making any push to find a free agent front-line starter, are starting to sound more and more intelligent.

Without a dominator, like a CC Sabbathia of the Yankees or David Price of the Rays, the O’s don’t have that one starter they can count on to get them to the late innings, or throw a gem for a win when the chips are down.

It’s easy to criticize when it is someone else’s money being spent, but billionaire owner Peter Angelos has been hesitant to even contemplate throwing a big contract to a superstar pitcher, and that is coupled with the fact that so few have been available, even through trade.

However, the core of the team has returned, including all of the bullpen members the O’s didn’t release or trade away from 2012.
But fears of a McDowell Effect will continue as long as the Orioles, this time around, can’t pitch. Johnson and the bullpen can be given a mulligan or two considering how often they do close out games. Two lousy losses in save situations shouldn’t change anyone’s thinking about Johnson.

But if the Orioles cannot get starters consistently into the 7th innings, eventually the bullpen will wear out, and the McDowell Effect will take over and the O’s won’t be able to get bailed out when their starters stink up the field.

Showalter so far has dodged questions about The McDowell Effect better than a 1920’s paperboy dodging streetcars, but eventually he’ll have to answer if the O’s cannot soon solve their starting woes.