In the ninth inning of last night’s 2-0 loss to Tampa, the Baltimore Orioles were searching for anything to spark their slumbering offense. All they needed was a base runner, and the tying run would be at the plate. While they hadn’t notched any marks in the home run ledger thus far on the night, with the O’s, a dinger is always just a swing away.
With one out, Manny Machado stepped to the plate trying to provide that spark. Facing Rays closer Alex Colome, whom he had historically hit well (5-for-13), Manny crushed a line drive down the third base side. With an exit velocity of 103.0 MPH and a launch angle of 4 degrees, BaseballSavant.com tells us that this smash had a 58% probability of turning into a hit.
Instead, it was right at third baseman Evan Longoria, who made a nice play on a short hop to retire Machado.
No hit, no base runner, no tying run at the plate. Chris Davis would then walk to bring said tying run to the dish, only for Mark Trumbo to – of course – strike out.
But this post isn’t about Davis or Trumbo. It’s about Manny, who has had some dismal results to start his 2017 campaign, and has been the victim of some terrible luck along the way.
First, the bad: Manny is hitting just .188/.288/.362, far below his career marks of .282/.332/.474. He has just ONE multi-hit game all season. If you prefer the advanced numbers, he is sporting a wOBA of .287 and a wRC+ of 82, again a far cry from his usual .357 and .122.
But don’t despair, dear Reader. I’m here to tell you why this Flaherty-ian start of Machado’s is nothing but smoke and mirrors. The real Manny is lurking just beneath the surface, ready to explode in a flurry of MACHADOUBLES and MACHADONGS that’ll make your head spin.
Bad Luck Chuck, er…Manny
Manny’s current BABIP (that’s batting average on balls in play) is a stupid .192. That’s over 100 points lower than his career average, which sits at .307. Some regression is certainly due in that regard.
But is the low BABIP a result of weakly-hit balls?
Nope. Machado is hitting the ball as hard as ever. In every week this season, Manny’s average exit velocity has been higher than the league average. In Week 1, he was at 93.0, compared to a league average of 88.2. In Week 2, 91.6 to 87.7. Week 3’s discrepancy was even higher, with Manny at 97.6, 10 MPH over the league average that week of 87.4.
In 2016, he was above the league average in exit velocity in 19 of 27 weeks.
Here are his exit velocities by zone in 2016 (left) and 2017 (right):
And now, his batting averages in those same zones:
So we can see that in 2017, Machado is actually hitting balls in the middle and lower third of the zones HARDER than he did last year, but that his batting average on those crushed baseballs remains stupidly, incomprehensibly low.
He is seventh in MLB in average exit velocity at 95.5MPH, sandwiched between Miguel Cabrera (.268/.369/.464) and Nick Castellanos (.241/.302/.494). Here are the Top 10, and their respective wRC values to date:
As far as “Barreled” balls goes (defined by Baseball Savant as “well struck batted balls with an estimated BA/SLG over .500/1.500), Manny has seven so far this year, right on par with Bryce Harper (.400/.523/.800 7 HR) and Miguel Sano (.258/.417/.591 5 HR).
Yes, Manny is hitting baseballs hard in 2017.
Machado’s K% is just a tick above his career rate (18.8% vs. 17.5%), so it isn’t like he’s putting that many fewer balls in play. Though he is walking more than normal – 12.5% of the time compared to 8.6% for his career – this is, of course, a good thing, and his swing metrics reflect a more discerning eye at the plate:
Manny is swinging at fewer pitches overall than normal (43.2% compared to 47.2% career) and far fewer pitches outside the zone than normal (24.0% compared to 29.7% career). He is making just slightly less contact inside the zone (84% compared to 88.3% career) and overall (73.5% compared to 80.8% career).
So listen, Birdland. I’m here to tell you that Manny is going to be the least of this team’s worries moving forward. No, he doesn’t “need a day off.” He just needs his luck to even out a bit.
Now, Mark Trumbo, on the other hand…
