With the 4th of July holiday right around the corner, the Baltimore Orioles have the third best record in MLB and have a healthy 5.5-game lead for the first wild card spot. As fans of the team, we can’t ask for more than that. They are playing good baseball, have great team chemistry, they are athletic and fun to watch.
That being said, some fans (myself included) are not happy with certain things that are or aren’t happening on and off the field. One of those things will get rectified today, as the Orioles are calling up top 50 prospect, Jordan Westburg. Westburg, who I felt should have been on the team since Opening Day after playing well in AAA last year, has over 700 AAA plate appearances and has shown a lot of power, an ability to take a walk and has hit for a high average. His AAA OPS is around 900. Defensively, he is a bit of a mystery. He was drafted as a shortstop but it doesn’t appear that he has a future there. His future is likely at third base or second base. With the O’s, that means second base since Gunnar Henderson is the long term third baseman.
The questions O’s fans have already had with respect to Westburg are: where will he play and how often? My guess is that he plays second and third with Henderson playing short at times and perhaps sitting against the occasional lefty starter. How often he plays is up for debate and this is part of the problem fans have had.
The Orioles are playing Adam Frazier and Jorge Mateo a lot, despite them providing next to zero production in their overall game. Mateo, after a great April, had an OPS of .316 in May and i.510 in June. The glove, which is still very good, isn’t quite at the level it was last year yet the team continues to put him out there on a regular basis. You love the speed but you can’t steal first base and while the pinch running is valuable, it’s only valuable up to a certain point.
Frazier, who will provide good at bats from time to time and has been good in clutch situations, has largely been what we thought he would be: not overly productive at the plate while seeing his defense get worse. This is fairly typical for a middle infielder on the wrong side of 30 who has been trending down for about two calendar years now. Frazier currently has a WAR of 0 via FanGraphs (FG has the superior WAR because they use better defensive stats and account for park factors better than does Baseball Reference.)
But again, the Orioles just keep playing these guys because they like that they are vets and what they bring to the team every day. The problem with this is, of course, they aren’t producing and while the team is winning, that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t try to be better.
As exciting as it is for them to have the 3rd best record in the league, the O’s Pythagorean theorem record is only 41-35 because their run differential is just +26. Ten teams have a better run differential than that and four other teams are within five runs of them. What that tells you is the margin for error isn’t as high with this team and part of that is because they are running out unproductive position players.
For the last few weeks another top 100 prospect, Joey Ortiz, has barely seen the field. Ortiz is an elite level glove with excellent bat to ball skills and high exit velos. Since recovering from his shoulder injury, he has been a lights out hitter in the upper minors, while continuing to display his incredible defense. Yet, despite that, Brandon Hyde and Mike Elias can’t find a way to get him into the lineup on a regular or even semi-regular basis even though Mateo and Frazier have essentially been below replacement level players for the last 1-2 months.
The immediate concern for O’s fans is that Westburg will suffer the same fate. Westburg isn’t a perfect prospect. He has had some swing and miss in his game, may struggle with some MLB breaking stuff and, as I said, there are some question about his defense. That being said, he has obviously shown enough talent and has more than enough AAA at bats to where he has nothing left to prove down there. Add in the idea that he is 24 years old and it’s time for him to be up here, getting an extended look.
The corresponding move has yet to be announced, but the assumption is that Ortiz gets sent down because it makes zero sense for him to be up here not playing. If they don’t send down Ortiz, perhaps that is a sign they will start playing him. For me, the best IF the Orioles can put out there is some kind of combo of Henderson, Westburg and Ortiz playing 2nd, SS and 3rd. Where they play depends on where they fit in best defensively, which really means where Westburg fits in best defensively. Westburg could also see some OF time, as he played out there some in AAA, but I would guess that is not in the plans to start.
Also, don’t overlook the trade deadline aspect of all of this. Long term, one of Ortiz or Westburg almost certainly has to be traded and this could be somewhat of a showcase for Westburg as well. We know that the long term plan is Jackson Holliday, MLB Pipeline’s newest #1 prospect at SS, and Henderson at third. When Holliday will be ready is up for debate but he is on track to be ready by this time next year, although the O’s could certainly hold him back if they need to. Either way, whether it’s not or 18 months from now, one of Westburg or Ortiz is likely to be with another organization.
It is an exciting time to be an O’s fan. The minor league system is thriving, the MLB team is playing well, playoffs look likely and the long term future is bright. That said, the focus should be on winning right now because while that future looks bright today, you don’t know what it will look like in a year… just ask the White Sox.
Elias and Hyde should be putting the best team on the field that they possibly can and Westburg’s promotion is hopefully the start of them doing just that. Winning right now is great but the goal should be winning in October and running out the likes of Mateo and Frazier, when you have higher-upside, younger and better players behind them, isn’t the best way to accomplish that. That doesn’t mean those players can’t have roles on this team but the roles should be reduced from what they are now.
Let’s sit back and enjoy tonight. A red hot Reds team is in town, Elly De La Cruz is here and Westburg debuts. Get your popcorn ready.
