Tough Decisions Loom as Bradish & Means Make Way Back

With Kyle Bradish finishing up his second rehab start yesterday, and John Means having already completed several, it’s worth talking about how each may fit into this increasingly-deep Orioles rotation in the coming weeks and months.

Bradish

We’ll start with Bradish because this is a bit of a no-brainer. Bradish breezed through his first rehab start, flashing 95-96 on his fastball and generating 10/44 whiffs (23 Swstr%). In his second, he threw 64 pitches in 3.1 IP, walking three and striking out four. If Bradish is healthy, he’ll slot back atop the Orioles rotation along with the undefeated duo of Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez.

The bigger question is who gets bumped from the big league rotation. For now, we’ll put aside the possibility of the Orioles going six-man (I’ve seen no indication that this is a current consideration).

It might be tempting to say Big Al (I prefer Albie) Suarez will get bumped to the bullpen. But I’m not so sure. Suarez has shown many of the characteristics you like to see from a starter:

1) interesting stuff/whiff potential;

2) doesn’t walk anyone;

3) limits home runs.

Dean Kremer seems fairly entrenched in the rotation, so we won’t consider him vulnerable (not yet at least).

Performance-wise, Cole Irvin is the obvious guy to be bumped to the bullpen (he’s out of options). The counter-argument here is that the Orioles:

1) might want at least one lefty in the big league rotation; and

2) there is a decent chance that Suarez’s stuff would play better out of the bullpen.

There’s also the fact that Irvin turned in his best start as an Oriole on Sunday afternoon in Kansas City.

Regardless of which option the Orioles choose, room for Bradish will be made by bumping either Irvin or Suarez to the bullpen.

Means

There is no way around it: Means is getting absolutely shelled in his rehab assignment (18.41 ERA over four starts). Now, every rehab assignment should be taken with a massive grain of salt. For a pitcher, I’m mostly interested in:

1) is he getting whiffs/quality of the stuff?

2) is he limiting walks?

3) is he keeping the ball in the yard?

The answers for Means:

1) No, fastball velocity/quality is down, change-up is inconsistent, and other secondaries (slider/curve) aren’t doing much of anything. Means has a 10% SwStr rate which is below MLB average, while also coming against AAA competition.

2) No he is not limiting walks (6.1 BB/9).

3) No, he is not keeping the ball in the yard (6.1 HR/9, obviously untenable).

According to Cots Contracts, Means still has minor league options. While the Orioles love John Means and want to see him succeed with the big league club, he’ll need to show at least a couple of the following positive indicators:

1) improved change-up feel/movement;

2) velocity increase;

3) sharper command/control.

At this point, I imagine the Orioles will want to broach the possibility with Means of using one of his options at the end of his rehab assignment. In my opinion, this is better for all parties: it would be foolhardy for the O’s to say, DFA Cole Irvin or Albert Suarez (both who would get claimed) just for Means to get crushed for a few starts, then sent down anyway.

So, who gets bumped from the bullpen?

Dillon Tate, Keegan Akin, and Yennier Cano are the only option-able pieces in the Orioles bullpen. Cano obviously isn’t going anywhere. Akin is usually a very option-able pitcher who now looks absolutely dominant (until this weekend anyway). The underlying numbers don’t look great for Tate but he’s getting ground balls and the results have been strong.

Yohan Ramirez, Jacob Webb and Michael Baumann are all out of options, if the O’s want to DFA someone instead. Webb has also performed well (the stuff is down a bit) and likely has dug his feet into a spot barring multiple blow-ups. Baumann has been the worst arm in the bullpen, but the stuff has looked elite. The Orioles may be remiss to lose him on waivers. While Ramirez has looked quite interesting, he might get the short end of the stick here, and his hideous outing Saturday night makes that seem most likely.

What about Perez and Wells?

This is tough. If Cionel Perez and Tyler Wells come back healthy in the next few weeks, the Orioles will have some very tough decisions to make. Wells has options, and could be sent down like last year. However, we all know how dominant he can be out of the pen, so sliding him into this role and making a tough decision on Baumann or Webb might be preferable. Perez wasn’t pitching well (in a very small sample size, admittedly), and the Orioles have seemed inclined to hold onto him in the past. Cionel is out of options, however, and could be another tough-luck DFA in the mold of Ramirez, Baumann, or even Webb. You’re welcome Oakland!

Conclusion

My preference would be for John Means to be optioned at the end of his rehab assignment (please, please, please get better!), for Cole Irvin to slide to the bullpen (with a corresponding Yohan Ramirez DFA), and Bradish to move into Irvin’s slot. That leaves a rotation of Burnes, Rodriguez, Bradish, Kremer and Suarez. The bullpen would then be: Craig Kimbrel, Cano, Danny Coulombe, Akin, Webb, Tate, Baumann, Irvin. This pen makeup (five righties, three lefties), would likely mean that a tough decision will have to be made upon Cionel’s return. I don’t think it’s tenable to carry four righties and four lefties, so Cionel might end up being a tough-luck DFA.

I’m guessing the Orioles are banking on someone to roll their ankle in a pothole or something so they don’t have to lose a talented bullpen arm to waivers.