The logjam of major league-ready Baltimore Orioles prospects is straining to hold. Cracks are evident, and water is seeping through, a flood seemingly imminent. This spring down in Sarasota, Florida, the youngsters are showing out in Grapefruit League action and making for some very difficult decisions for Brandon Hyde, Mike Elias, Sig Mejdal, and all of the Birds’ brass.
While it’s a great problem to have, it’s still, in a word, a problem.
Teams have 26 roster spots at their disposal, and only nine players to put on the field on any given day. The Orioles, thanks to the expert drafting and development regime put in place by Elias & his team over the past several years, have significantly more than nine playable pieces.
Let’s take a look at some of the Baby Birds pushing for a trip north at the end of the March – that’s ALL the way north to Baltimore, not stopping in Norfolk, Virginia.
Baseball’s Top Prospect
Obviously, the first name on this list is the one known to fans throughout major league baseball. The game’s number one prospect, 20-year-old Jackson Holliday, son of former big leaguer Matt, rocketed through four levels of pro ball in 2023, starting in Low-A Delmarva before progressing past High-A Aberdeen and AA Bowie all the way to AAA Norfolk. He hit .322/.442/.499 with 30 doubles, nine triples, and 12 homers in 477 at-bats. Observers say Holliday has put on noticeable muscle over the winter. That’s not at all unexpected for a professional athlete of his age, and it reminds this fan of when Manny Machado went from “MachaDOUBLE” to “MachaDONG” on O’s Twitter about a decade ago.
Holliday has played in 10 Grapefruit League games, and over 31 AB has posted a line of .323/.344/.613. He’s doubled twice, tripled twice, and hit this grand slam off Toronto Blue Jays lefty Yusei Kikuchi on Monday.
Jackson, who walked nearly as many times as he struck out in his minor league career (126 to 130), has K’d 12 times while only drawing one free pass. One has to wonder if he is being more aggressive in a bid to show the coaching staff what his newfound strength can do. It could also be a case of Holliday learning from the mistakes of 2023 AL Rookie of the Year (and previous MLB top prospect) Gunnar Henderson, who was too passive at the start of last season. There should be little concern that he’s suddenly lost his discerning batting eye.
Holliday has been playing second base, which is clearly the most likely position for him on the 2024 Birds, at least.
The case for keeping Jackson Holliday off the big league roster to start the season comes down to service time considerations, and really nothing more. For more detail on how those work, check out this piece from ESR’s Rob Shields.
Still, I’d be surprised if the Orioles play that game with Holliday.
Chances of Making Opening Day Roster: 85%
The Guys Who’ve Gotten a Taste
Next on our list is a group of players who’ve all gotten some experience at the MLB level with the Birds. Colton Cowser, Jordan Westburg, Heston Kjerstad, and Kyle Stowers played in 21, 22, 12, and 18 games, respectively, in 2023.
Cowser
Colton Cowser has been on fire this spring. Don’t believe me? Let Alex convince you:
There's only one player in spring training – min 25 PA – with a SLG >= 1.000:
Colton Cowser
— Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) March 12, 2024
In 23 at-bats, Cowser has 11 hits, including four homers, for a .478/.586/1.000 slash line. O’s fans will certainly contrast this with his big-league performance last season, when he looked a bit overmatched in hitting just .115. However, his OBP was 170 points higher, at .286 (13 BB in 26 G) suggesting another player who, like Henderson, was taking his swing decision training a bit too extreme in his early MLB days.
Cowser will be 24 next week. With Cedric Mullins again struggling with a hamstring injury this spring, Cowser should be given the chance to split centerfield duties at the very least, while also helping man the cavernous left field at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
Chances of Making Opening Day Roster: 75%
Westburg
Newly-turned 25-years-old, Jordan Westburg has by far the most MLB at-bats (208) of this four-player group. In those appearances, he’s managed a line of .260/.311./.404 with two triples and three homers, good for an OPS+ of 100 even. Encouragingly enough, his exit velocities were in the 90th percentile in baseball. He can play third base, second base, or shortstop in a pinch.
There isn’t a ton to say about Jordan Westburg. He looked like he belonged last year, can contribute at multiple positions, provides some right-handed pop in a lineup with a lot of left-handed batters, and needs to be on the team.
(I’m not sure I’ll ever forgive Brandon Hyde for pinch-hitting Adam Frazier for him in the fourth inning of game one of the ALDS against Texas, but that’s neither here nor there.)
Chances of Making Opening Day Roster: 90%
Kjerstad
Like Westy, Heston Kjerstad just turned 25. He made his MLB debut in September and immediately endeared himself to Birdland with a clutch pinch-hit go-ahead RBI double in the AL East clincher against the Boston Red Sox. In 33 plate appearances, Kjerstad doubled, homered twice, walked twice, struck out 10 times and drove in three on his way to a .748 OPS and 106 OPS+.
Unfortunately for Heston, he appears to be the first off, assuming the team keeps 13 position players. Ryan O’Hearn will be given every opportunity to show that his 2023 emergence was no fluke. With just one extra-base hit (a double) in 31 spring AB thus far, he isn’t forcing the org’s hand at the moment, which he probably needs to do.
Chances of Making Opening Day Roster: 40%
Stowers
Tied for second on the team in Grapefruit League home runs with three, Light-Tower-Power-Stowers is trying to emerge from forgotten man status. Back in 2022, he had 98 PA and racked up eight extra-base hits, including three homers, and drove in 11 for an OPS of .724 (106 OPS+). However, after breaking camp with the team to start the year in ’23, he struggled mightily, with just two singles in 30 AB. He was sent down in mid-May and spent the rest of the year in Norfolk.
Back with the Tides, Stowers continued to mash AAA pitching, hitting 21 homers and posting a .954 OPS in 258 AB.
Barring a trade (or two), it’s just hard to envision Stowers being able to shoehorn his way back onto the big squad in Baltimore.
Chances of Making Opening Day Roster: 15%
The New Kid on the Block
Currently tied atop the O’s leaderboard in at-bats this spring is Coby Mayo. In those opportunities, the 22-year-old has 10 hits, including a homer and five doubles, a .313/.421/.563 slash line, five walks and seven strikeouts.
With Mayo, it’s long been known that the bat will play (and soon). His issue has always been his defense, and where the glove would be serviceable at the MLB level. I listened to a podcast with a national prospect analyst last year, who convinced me that, due to his big arm, Mayo would likely emerge as a right fielder for the Birds. With Anthony Santander (as well as Kjerstad and Stowers) ahead of him, that didn’t seem likely until at least post-trade deadline 2024, if not 2025.
However, word this March is that Mayo’s infield defense has improved dramatically.
“The bat’s going to play, and he’s going to be a good hitter,” manager Brandon Hyde said. “I’m more impressed about his defense. The strides he’s made defensively at third base — massive strides since last year.”
A fourth-round pick in the 2020 MLB Draft, Mayo’s defensive improvement can be traced back to the ‘22 season. While working with Roberto Mercado (High-A Aberdeen’s manager at the time), Mayo was instructed to lower his arm slot on throws.
Mayo has a big arm, and the lowered slot helps with his throwing accuracy, which remains a work in progress. As he continues to get reps, he’s showing he could have future success as a big-bodied third baseman (similar to others such as Atlanta’s Austin Riley).
“Seeing him last year, I think there were a lot of question marks for everybody that watched it. Seeing him this year, you see a path forward,” said third-base coach Tony Mansolino, who works with O’s infielders. “We look at it, and we see the progress, I think it gives us a lot of hope. He’s come a long way.”
If Mayo’s future is indeed in the infield, then it’s hard to not dream big on the long-term prospect of a Mayo-Henderson-Holliday everyday dirt squad for the Birds, with Westburg as the utility man.
But again, barring a trade or two, that seems to be a bit further off in the future. A bright future, to be certain, but the future nonetheless.
Chances to Make Opening Day Roster: 5%
2 Responses
I like your article. Why didn’t you include Norby? I think he has a better chance to make the team than Holliday, right now.
Thanks Mike. I personally don’t see much future for Norby unless Westburg is traded, which I highly doubt. I like Norby though, and he definitely needs to be on an MLB roster somewhere, like Joey Ortiz. Keep hoping they’ll find somewhere to deal him.
I disagree about him having a better chance than Holliday, but they’ve surprised me before!