The 2022 Baltimore Orioles are having one of the most surprising seasons in recent memory. They have crushed last year’s win total and have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs as a wild card team. They have been a fun team to watch all year and have gotten the city of Baltimore excited about baseball again.
Since that is the case, I think it’s fair to ask the following question. Why isn’t Mike Elias doing all he can to get this team into the playoffs?
If you go back to the trade deadline, the Orioles traded two main pieces from this year’s team, Trey Mancini and Jorge Lopez. There were justifications for and against each of these trades. Some fans were happy with the moves, others didn’t like them as they viewed the decisions as throwing in the towel on the season.
In addition to those moves, the Orioles have decided to continue to hold off on bringing up Gunnar Henderson and Kyle Stowers from AAA. Both players are clearly ready to come to the majors and don’t have anyone in front of them that is exactly playing at a high level. Now, we of course don’t know if they would contribute immediately. We have seen this year Adley Rutschman struggle early before taking off and we have seen Terrin Vavra come up and give us an immediate impact. You just never know with young players but what is not debatable is that those two players represent a significant talent upgrade and, since you are going to be relying on them in 2023, it would be good for them to get experience now.
So far in August, the Orioles are 10-6. That’s a winning percentage of 63%, which is roughly a 100+ win pace. When you look at it that way, it appears that Elias had pushed the right buttons and that despite some of the moves (or lack thereof), the team is winning enough.
However, the team has lost four of their last six games and five of their last eight. They are struggling offensively and the bullpen ERA for the month of August is 4.10, which is by far the worst ERA for any month in the 2022 season (the closest was the first month of the year, when it was 3.46). If you had kept Mancini and Lopez and brought up Henderson and Stowers, would the team be in better shape right now? Would they be in better shape going forward?
Obviously, we don’t know the answer to that and never will. Mancini has gone to Houston and put up an .805 OPS but his average is .225 and his OBP is .256. Lopez has been scored upon in two outings and has given up three runs in six innings. We, of course, don’t know what they would have done here but I think it’s safe to say that Mancini has been an up and down offensive player and while Lopez doesn’t have many signs that his numbers are a fluke, I do think he is more of a 2.5ish ERA pitcher vs a sub 2 guy, so I am not surprised to see him let up a few more runs.
Felix Bautista has done a good job as the closer but we have seen some of the other guys struggle here and there and that is part of the Lopez trade. It’s a chain reaction. Everyone gets bumped up a spot and everyone has to assume different roles.
My biggest issue with all of these decisions is that Elias, who was recently quoted as saying he believes this team will make the playoffs, seems to think that 2022 is a bonus and if they make the playoffs, great and if they don’t, no harm no foul. He seems to be saying, his plan isn’t going to be altered, no matter what is happening on the field.
In some ways, I admire that thought process. He believes in what the team is doing and, based on the results in terms of the farm system rankings, talent accumulation, development, etc.…he has every right to believe in them. The problem is, he is taking for granted making the playoffs. The Orioles may be in a surprise position and sure they shouldn’t be where they are but the thing is, they are there. They are winning and you do have that chance. You can’t assume playoff appearances down the road. You can believe you are in position for them and you can believe that you will be talented enough to get there but you can’t assume it will happen. Ask Dan Marino about assuming playoff success. He went to the Super Bowl early in his career and he said that he thought that would be a regular thing for him. He never went again. It happens. Players get injured and/or fail to develop, teams around you get even better, etc.. You can’t assume.
Now, perhaps Henderson and Stowers will be up once they get inside of 45 days, thus allowing them to continue with their rookie status in 2023 and lining up the O’s chances up of getting a draft pick if either (or both) finish in the top two in ROY voting. And perhaps they will still make the playoffs and Elias will have been able to accomplish both goals. That’s all very possible but it will also have been lucky.
This team has been losing (some would argue, purposely) for the last several years and, outside of a five-year run from 2012-2016, this organization has been a joke for about 25 years. This year, they are playing playoff-caliber baseball despite being outgunned in almost every series. Brandon Hyde, Elias and, of course, the players deserve a lot of credit for this. Elias should win Executive of the Year. Hyde should win Manager of the Year. Adley Rutschman has a good chance at ROY and could even garner some MVP votes depending on how September goes for him and the team. Jorge Mateo is in line to win his first gold glove. Cedric Mullins and Rutschman have a chance as well.
It’s all great to see but now that the team is where they are, we want to see more. It’s time to be greedy. As fans, you want to see wins. You should care more about wins than your farm system ranking. Baltimore is a baseball town. They are starving for winning baseball and we have it right now and the team is still deciding to not go for it when they are in position to do so. To many fans, including me, that’s frustrating. It’s not a lack of faith in Elias or Hyde, it’s just the idea that we need to be better in some spots – and we can be – and the organization is purposely choosing not to improve.
I know we have some fans who are ok with that. Fans who see the starting rotation and say, well we can’t contend in the playoffs anyway, so who cares. I get that thought but things happen in the playoffs. Rarely does the best team win. Lots of luck is involved. You just never know who gets hot and who goes cold at the right/wrong time and let’s face it, the extra playoff revenue would be nice to have.
We are quickly approaching the 45 day cutoff. Gunnar is playing some games at first base, seemingly to make him more versatile for a call up. I think it’s going to happen but the question is, will be too late?
At the very least, we have important games in September and we certainly didn’t think we would be saying that.
