We’ve heard all the arguments.
There is no way the Orioles can duplicate their historic record of 29-9 in 1-run games.
They can’t possibly win 16 straight extra inning games again.
The division is too difficult for a team with no ace to compete two years in a row.
While the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox improved in the offseason, the Orioles stayed status quo.
Yawn.
I think “experts” should be banned from making predictions, but that is a discussion for another day.
I will agree though that the argument of how much the Orioles improved from the last out in New York in Game 5 of the ALDS to Opening Day is a legit one. They did not address the need for a middle of the order hitter, they still don’t have a top of the rotation guy, and the reality is it will be difficult to win those one run and extra inning games again.
However, without predicting the win-loss record, I think the Orioles have improved and here’s how:
The departures of Robert Andino and Mark Reynolds
If there is one area the 2012 Orioles did very well in, it was striking out. In fact, their 1,315 strikeouts were good for 6th in the majors.
They averaged 8 strikeouts a game. Think about that.
They almost averaged a strikeout an inning, which means almost 1/3 of their outs every night came via the strikeout.
It is difficult to be a great team long-term when there are so many unproductive outs. This is why the departures of Andino and Reynolds had to happen. They totaled 259 of those strikeouts.
Most people will point to Chris Davis leading the team in that department, but when you bat .270 and hit 33 homeruns, it is easier to excuse the K’s.
Add in that Adam Jones will strikeout more than 100 times, this problem had to be addressed by getting rid of guys who were not going to be part of the team in the long run.
Full season of Manny Machado and Miguel Gonzalez
It is hard to imagine that the impact these two guys made in 2012 for the Orioles was done after spending a lot of time in the minors. Gonzalez arrived to the show earlier than Machado and became a mainstay in the rotation in July. Machado didn’t get promoted until August, but it would be tough to come up with a handful of players who were as important as these two were down the stretch.
Their stellar play continued in October and the expectations would be for them to only get better playing a full season. The expectations for Machado are a lot higher because of where he was drafted, his prospect rating, and his age, but Gonzalez was unflappable in high-pressure situations last year that will only play huge dividends for the 28-year-old’s career as he moves forward.
As an added bonus, a healthy Nick Markakis for an entire season will only complement a lineup that could be the best this organization has seen in years.
Continued Improvement of Adam Jones and Matt Wieters
Jones finally cracked the 30 homerun mark in 2012 after flirting with it the previous two years. I am still not sure how good Jones can be. I never thought he would hit for a high average because of his lack of walks, but the last two years has proven that he can. I expect Jones to finally settle in as a .285, 30-35 homerun guy and he made huge strides in becoming that player last year. I think he will use his postseason struggles as motivation heading into this season.
As for Wieters, the next step for him is to hit for a higher average. His defense is the complete package, he continues to hit more homeruns, and his walks and RBI totals improve yearly, but he has to find a way to hit for a higher average. If Wieters becomes a .275 hitter then he will take his game to another level.
I will add Chris Davis to this. After finally becoming an everyday player, Davis went on to hit 33 homeruns. The naysayers will wonder if he can do it again, but I will say he learned what it takes to play an entire season. He will be 27 on Opening Day, just about to hit his prime. The sky is the limit for the new everyday first baseman.
Final Thoughts
The Orioles exceeded all the “experts’” predictions last season and they won unconventionally.
Most people will say because they didn’t sign anyone they didn’t improve.
I hate that logic.
A young team will naturally progress and that is what I expect from the Orioles this season. They have a rotation of young guys with two young studs on the way. Their defense played at an elite level the last two months of the season and their record reflected that.
IF Brian Roberts and Nolan Reimold stay healthy, the O’s will have speed and power throughout their lineup. The bullpen will only be better with Tommy Hunter and Brian Matusz being part of it from day one.
More importantly than all of this, they have Buck Showalter at the helm. He quickly deflects the credit to the players and the organization which is what makes him great, but there is no doubt that we aren’t even talking about the Orioles having a chance to make the playoffs for the second straight season if Showalter isn’t the manager.
