It’s been a wonderful ride in 2022 for Orioles fans, with the team climbing, to date, as high as being tied for AL’s final wild card spot on August 10, prior to last night’s disappointing one-game “series” loss in Boston. In a season where expectations for the team were again minimal, surprising breakout performances from several players have helped key what’s been an improbable run. Ramon Urias slugging Earl Weaver specials, Rougned Odor driving us all insane with miscues and late-game heroics, Jorge Mateo being a terror on the basepaths, Terrin Vavra being promoted and immediately being an on-base machine, and Anthony Santander mashing from both sides of the plate have all contributed heavily offensively.
The defense is much improved, the starting rotation is surprisingly competent, with Jordan Lyles devouring (quality!) innings, Dean Kremer remembering how to get outs, Tyler Wells continuing his evolution prior to the injury, Spenser Watkins and Austin Voth continuing to defy expectations, Kyle Bradish returning strong…the list goes on.
Then of course, there is the bullpen. With Felix “The Mountain” Bautista whistling his way to becoming one of the league’s most dominant relievers, Cionel Perez, Bryan Baker, Nick Vespi, Dillon Tate, Joey Krehbiel, and even Keegan Akin contributing important outs on a nightly bases, Birdland is confident in any late close contest.
Of course, there is Adley Rutschman‘s emergence as perhaps a captain-worthy player already in his first year. The former first overall pick may not be contributing the power we had hoped for just yet, but he has exceeded expectations in just about every other facet.
Adley Rutschman is the first Oriole with 11 walks in a seven-game span since Brady Anderson in 2000.
— Nathan Ruiz (@NathanSRuiz) August 12, 2022
There are a few players I’ve yet to mention, however. Based on the headline, I’m sure you’ve already guessed. One other though, is Cedric Mullins. The Birds’ 30/30 man from 2021 has fallen off that pace a bit, and while he isn’t likely to ever again be the 6+ fWAR player he was last year, his steady defense in center, ever-present threat to steal bases (24 as of this writing), and his 102 wRC+ all make him far from the top of the O’s list of worries.
Entering 2022, there were a couple players we fans were counting on to keep things interesting – not even in the win/loss column, but just to give us a reason to tune in nightly, even if another loss was the most likely outcome. Of course there was the highly-anticipated debut of Rutschman, but among the established regulars, two were at or near the top of every orange-clad nutcase’s list: Austin Hays & Ryan Mountcastle.
The 27-year-old Hays has always been fun to watch, but just couldn’t shake the “injury-prone” label. He was limited to 21 games in 2019, 33 in the shortened 2020 season, and 131 last year, due to various maladies. He’s avoided the IL so far this year, appearing in 99 of the Birds’ 111 games, fourth on the team behind Mullins, Mateo, & Santander. If not for missing nearly a week (though avoiding the IL) at the start of August, he’d likely lead the team in games played.
From April through June, Hays was absolutely meeting expectations and doing his part with the bat. Through June 2, he was batting .302/.373/.453, with a team-leading 137 wRC+, 9.0% BB rate, and 15.4% K rate. When he hit for the cycle on June 22, his OPS was still .829, though his average had dipped a bit since the start of the month, from .302 to .287. That OPS peaked on June 27 at .834. On that date, he led the team in wRC+ at 136, despite his BB rate falling to 6.5% and K rate increasing to 18.1% from the start of the month. Hays hit six home runs in June after three in May in two in April.
The Orioles were 35-40 on June 27, and nobody was seriously considering them any sort of contender.
Then, for some reason, Hays fell off a cliff. From June 28 through last night, Hays’ wRC+ is a dismal 53, worst on the team over that stretch (yes, worse than Odor’s 67). He’s walked just 3.4% of the time during the slump, while striking out in 24% of his at-bats. His home run on Monday night was his first since July 17, and just his second since June 28.
The Orioles are 23-13 since Austin Hays, their best hitter well into June, mysteriously forgot how to hit.
Moving on to Hays’ counterpart, Ryan Mountcastle. The 25-year-old seems to have finally found a home at first base, and has made some nice plays, while seemingly making most of the plays he “should” make this season. His calling card has always been his bat though. In 2017 in High-A, he posted a 146 wRC+, which fell to a respectable 121 in Bowie and 117 in Norfolk in 2018 and 2019, respectively. In 35 games in the shortened 2020 season, Mounty posted a 139 wRC+. In his first full season last year, he had a 111 wRC+, with 33 home runs in 586 plate appearances. The 7% BB rate and 27.5% K rate were both a bit worse than in 2020, but not significantly so, nor to be unexpected over a full season for a guy who walked just 4% of the time and struck out 24% of the time in AAA.
Mountcastle started the year slowly, which has become a habit. In 2021, he hit just .198/.229/.286 (.515 OPS) with a single homer in April, before raising those numbers to .748 with four and 1.015 with nine in May & June, respectively. His best month last year was August, when he hit .357/.397/.786, for a 1.183 OPS, 208 wRC+, and eight home runs.
This year, his April wasn’t quite as dismal, but .247/.275/.338 (.613 OPS), 72 wRC+, and two HR had Birdland feeling a bit of deja vu.
May was better: .275/.306/.463 (.768 OPS), 111 wRC+, four HR.
June was better still: .297/.345/.614 (.958) OPS, 167 wRC+, seven HR.
Mounty’s season OPS peaked at .826 on July 3 in a win over Minnesota. He got to wear the home run chain that game, the 14th time he’d done so. Only Santander had donned it more, and just by one. His 130 wRC+ at the time led the Birds. He was walking just 5.2% of the time while striking out 25.8% of the time, but again, this was par for the course for Mounty.
The Orioles were 36-44 on July 3.
Mountcastle followed his friend Hays off the cliff, falling just a week later or so than Austin.
From July 4 through last night, Mountcastle has a 52 wRC+, again worse than just Odor’s 60. He’s actually walked a bit more and struck out a bit less than he was earlier in the season (8.1% and 22.8%), but according to Statcast data, his HardHit%, which was 53% on July 3, is just 31% since. His average exit velocity of 93.1 on July 3 has fallen to just 87.7 since.
The Orioles are 22-9 with Mountcastle mired in a month-plus long drought.
Mounty, like Hays, wore the HR chain this past Monday. He showed a bit of a sense of humor about his slump, pretending he didn’t know what it was.
How much longer can the Orioles keep up their unexpected contention with two of their best hitters not hitting? While it remains to be seen of course, especially given the aforementioned records during each slump, we have to think that their chances of actually seizing one of the American League wild card spots will depend heavily on each of these two players bouncing back in big ways.
With Mountcastle and Vavra getting on base so much ahead of them, the RBI opportunities for Hays & Mountcastle will continue to present themselves. I won’t armchair shrink this one too much, but could the pressure of playing on a contending team for the first time be having an effect? It’s fair to ask.
For this magical run to continue, and perhaps end in a bit of a celebration, Austin Hays & Ryan Mountcastle need to start hitting again.
stats via ESPN, FanGraphs, & Baseball Savant
