First “half” analysis – not as bad as some want to believe

Do you remember how much fun we had last season? Nearly all “experts” predicted the lowly Orioles would finish dead last for the umpteenth time. But, instead, the Orioles started well, maintained it, and finished strong to qualify for the playoffs for the first time since 1997. It was not only a fun season for the Orioles and their fans, but exciting too. All those one-run and extra inning wins, the shut-down bullpen, and clutch hits had us all remembering the days of Orioles Magic!

This year may not have been as much fun so far, but it’s still been exciting. From the things I’ve read and heard, you would tend to think this year’s team is a lot worse than last year’s. I mean I’ve heard “our bullpen stinks,” “our starters are awful,” “we can’t win the close games like last year,” “we can’t close out a win in the ninth,” “we have no DH,” and “the bottom of our lineup is not good.” So those things are all easy to say, but are they true? Let’s find out.

The All-Star game is not “half-way” this season; it’s 96 games into the year. So, after 96 games in 2012, the Orioles were 51-45, 7.0 games back of 1st place in the AL East. After 96 games in 2013, the Orioles are 53-43, just 4.5 games behind first place. So, they are three games better, and 2.5 games closer to first place than they were at this time last year.

I think most of us would agree that this year’s team is stronger at the plate than last year’s, and the stats back that up. In the American League, the Orioles hitters rank fourth in Batting Average (11th at this time last year), first in HomeRuns (third last year), third in Hits (11th last year), third in Runs (11th last year), eighth in On-Base Percentage (12th last year), and first in Slugging Percentage (10th last year).

It’s not hard to see how those numbers break down. Chris Davis is crushing the ball. Manny Machado is hitting every thing he sees. JJ Hardy, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis are all hitting well. Even Ryan Flaherty has had moments of being the hottest hitter on the club.

The Orioles are also a much better team defensively. Last year, they ended the season ranked ninth in errors committed in the American League. So far this year, they have the fewest in the league. They ended up fifth in Fielding Percentage, and so far this year, they lead the league.

Now, the biggest complaint this year has been the pitching staff, both starters and relievers. It’s easy to say “they are worse” but let’s compare the stats.

At the All-Start break, the Orioles pitchers ranked fifth in wins in 2013 (fifth also in 2012). They rank 13th in Earned Run Average (ninth last year), and 14th in Earned Runs Allowed (eighth in 2012). They also ranked last in Home Runs allowed (10th last year), 13th in Batting Average against (seventh in 2012), and ninth in WHIP (seventh last year). The Orioles lead the American League is Saves, as they did last year at this time.

So you can see how the team is very close to where they were last year, when you break down the stats. They are a better hitting and fielding team, but aren’t as good on the mound (but are also not that much worse) than last year. I think the biggest change is Jason Hammel. If he can get back close to what he was last year, then this rotation becomes that much better.

The Orioles begin the second “half” of the year 4.5 games back of first and 1.5 games back of the Wild Card, but in both cases have two teams in front of them. So they need to continue to win series, and they have some important ones coming. On the road in Texas and Kansas City are important, as well as at home against Boston. They then play teams that they should beat in Houston, Seattle, and San Diego. They need to end July better than they started it.

One of the things that’s been good to see is that after each of their losing streaks, this team has come back strong. That’s going to be important in the second half of the year. They have some work to do, but overall I like where they stand.