The 2022 MLB draft is 10 days away. This is a huge draft for the Baltimore Orioles, as not only do they have the #1 pick (which has historically been the most valuable pick in the draft) but they also have the second largest draft pool since the new system started. With the graduation or imminent graduation of so many guys, this class will be a big part of the next wave of talent coming through the system.
Before looking at this draft, let’s look back a little at Mike Elias’ previous drafts. The 2019 class looks like a home run. Not only did the Orioles take Adley Rutschman first but they also got Gunnar Henderson, a current top 10 prospect in all of MLB, and Kyle Stowers, an outfielder with immense power who should be in Baltimore any day now. They also got Maverick Handley, a player who very well may be in the majors as the backup catcher next year, and even Darrel Hernaiz is a good prospect. That is a monster draft.
He followed it up with another very good draft in 2020. Some questioned the Heston Kjerstad pick, and while I preferred Zac Veen, I thought Kjerstad was a good pick. While I liked Austin Martin early on, based on reports, his star faded for me because of the lack of power and the questions about his position. He has since been traded and just dropped out of the top 100 on MLB.com. If the O’s had gone pitcher, I favored Max Meyer over Lacy and others because of his command. That said, I agreed with Elias’ decision to eschew a pitcher.
Kjerstad’s health issues weren’t something anyone could have expected, but he is back and hitting well. If he continues to hit well as he moves up (he will be in Aberdeen next week, I’m guessing), he could be in line for the majors at some point next year. The Orioles also ended up with Jordan Westburg as the next pick. He has now found his way on the MLB top 100 list and is on the fast track to Baltimore. Coby Mayo, who is currently not playing because of back spasms, was in the midst of an OK year in Aberdeen and was just promoted to Bowie. The Aberdeen stadium is so huge and it affects hitters, so I am guessing that was part of the decision. I expect him to struggle some in AA at first but the talent is there and he could move fast. They also grabbed Carter Baumler, a very athletic and talented pitching prospect who has a pretty high ceiling and fell due to signability concerns. He has just started pitching after needing Tommy John surgery but he is off to a good pro start.
The 2021 draft has been shaky. Many of the players have either struggled or been hurt. The top pick, Colton Cowser, is a player in the Nick Markakis mold. He struggled for a while in Aberdeen but started to hit and was moved to Bowie, where he has flourished. I didn’t mind the Cowser pick, as he would have been second on my board, but I feel like they should have taken the higher-ceiling guy in Jordan Lawlar, who is crushing it in A ball so far.
This bring me to this year’s draft and how I feel the Orioles should attack it. First of all, lets discuss the underslot/overslot strategy. This is a strategy that I personally can’t stand especially with the backdrop of the Orioles’ situation. They have been tanking for three years now. They are charging fans lots of money for the product and are fielding a team they know can’t compete. They play in arguably the toughest division in pro sports and the only advantage they have in tanking is the draft, both in terms of a high pick and the draft pool. Everything else that comes with “rebuilding’ can be done whether you win 100 or lose 100. The best teams do these things consistently.
So, with that as the backdrop, I feel that you need to go big with your high picks. The Orioles need elite, difference-making talent and the draft (and International signings) is where they are going to get it and that is where they should be getting it from (either by getting the players themselves or using them to make trades). The idea that you pass on higher-ceiling talent to be able to sign guys in the 4th round who fall makes no sense to me.
I don’t know what the Orioles draft board said last year but I believe they passed on Lawlar because of money and took Cowser because he was cheaper. I do not think they went BPA and I think that was a mistake. People look to the 2020 draft and say, “well, drafting Kjerstad allowed us to take Mayo and Baumler.” That’s actually wrong. First of all, if the O’s wanted Martin, they easily could have had him, Westburg, Mayo and Baumler. Now, would they have been able to add Hudson Haskin and Anthony Servideo as well? No, but so what?
There are a lot of ways to fit guys in your draft budget. It is kind of like the NFL salary cap. While it is real, there are ways around it. Last year, Pittsburgh signed players drafted after round 1 who fell due to signability concerns. One of the ways they accomplished this was because they had other picks in the top 10 (your picks in the top 10 rounds are what go against your draft pool, unless you sign someone for more than $125K the rest of the draft) sign for way under slot. They had a few guys sign for less than $50K, when slot was low-to-mid six digits. They essentially punted those picks. I love that idea. Let’s remember something about this strategy: very few players taken after the first round ever become impact guys in the majors. So, whether you sign a guy for $400K or $12K, you are still likely getting a player that is going nowhere.
So, if you take a lesser player in the first, you are doing it to take guys with a far lesser chance of making the majors for the rest of your draft. Sure, it can work out, but the odds aren’t in your favor. Another way the pool budget isn’t “real” is that you can go over by 4.9% and all you have to do is pay a 75% tax on that overage. For the Orioles’ draft this year, they could pay another $825K, which means they pay a total of ~$1.43M in total.
Twenty of MLB’s teams paid that penalty last year and the Pirates have done it every year since 2013. This is not an uncommon thing and this is a strategy the Orioles should be easily implementing. I would hope ownership isn’t that cheap that they would not do that, but they haven’t done it yet, so who knows.
All of that said, this should be the last high pick the O’s have for a while and the #1 pick is one where you want to obtain a high-ceiling, perennial All-Star level player. The idea that you take a lesser player here to save $1-2M is wrong. You can still go high-ceiling guys later. You don’t need the savings. You spend the extra ~$800K and you punt on some picks and you get your guys.
There is a lot of talk of who the O’s should take at 1-1. There is no Bryce Harper in this draft – that guy who is an undoubtedly #1 pick and you would be making career suicide by not taking him. However, Druw Jones is universally thought of as the best prospect in the draft and he should be the pick. Some have expressed concerns about his monetary demands, but let’s get one thing straight: Jones isn’t going to go to college if taken first unless the offer is incredibly insulting, which it won’t be. Slot for that pick this year is roughly $8.8 million. The Orioles could offer Jones $8.5M, which would set a new record under the next rules and he will 100% take it. He isn’t going to leave that money on the table and delay his career over $300K. There is zero chance that happens.
You give him that deal and you have saved money anyway. Now, you have that $300K, the $800K you can go over, plus what you choose to save after your next 4-5 picks. That should leave you with $10M, give or take, with which to do what you want, which is plenty of money.
I have seen some say the Birds should take someone else, like Termarr Johnson, with the first pick. To me, that is a horrible idea. First of all, he is small and while some small guys do make it, it’s rare. Secondly, as good as the hit tool appears to be, there is at least some doubt out there. He hasn’t lit the world on fire in the summer showcases and Keith Law said his hit tool is a 60 at best and feels those who say 70 are overrating it. Whether you agree with him or not is only part of the point.
The other issue is that is only a second baseman. Not only does that bother me from an athletic upside standpoint but it also bothers me from a need standpoint. Now, I want to make something clear. You don’t draft for need in the MLB draft. However, it doesn’t mean you don’t take it into account either. The Orioles drafted Manny Machado in 2010 and he was in the majors in 2012. Whoever you take at 1, should move at a similarly fast pace. They should be here by 2025. Right now, the Orioles have players like Westburg, Cesar Prieto, Terrin Vavra and Connor Norby at second base potentially. With the first pick expected to move quickly and many of those guys knocking on the door now, is drafting a second base only guy a smart move? On top of that, you just spent $1.7M and your second pick Norby last year, another second base only guy. Is that really the best use of resources? Two high picks on second base only players?
Right now, he only other guy I would consider is Jackson Holliday. I like his upside and I like the idea that his fallback options, position wise, are third or CF. He has the athleticism to play other premium positions, something Johnson doesn’t have.
However, this should be a Druw Jones pick. I know there are some questions about the hit tool but no player is perfect and while it will take some development, I think he is the highest ceiling guy and I feel that is the direction they need to go. I feel his floor is pretty high as well, as he should at least be Kevin Kiermaier, who has been a valuable player with Tampa over the years because of his speed and defense.
Mike Elias made a comment that this is a really good year to draft first. Knowing that, you don’t take the 4th player on your board. As you go through this process, you rank players. You have someone on your board that between Elias and everyone else, has come to the consensus that they should be ranked one. Whoever that player is, should be the pick. It shouldn’t be the 4th ranked guy because of some savings or something like that.
Don’t complicate things.
Take your best player and move on.
