Do the O’s Really Need a Change in Offensive Approach?

The 2024 Orioles’ season ended quietly last week against the Royals. The O’s largely scuffled from August 1^st through the end of the season, struggling mightily with runners in scoring position especially, and many in the fan base questioned their approach at the plate. The pitchforks were out for the two-headed monster at hitting coach.

The question is, do the Orioles need a new approach?  To try to figure that out, let’s look into the numbers first.

In 2024, the Orioles were 4^th in the majors in runs scored. While they were closer to 8^th than 3^rd , they still finished 4^th. Six of the top 10 teams in terms of runs scored made the playoffs. Houston, KC, Cleveland and Atlanta were all in the top 15. The only team that made the playoffs that was below average in runs scored was Detroit.

The O’s were second in homers. Again, six of the top 10 in homers made the playoffs. San Diego and Cleveland were 11^th and 12^th.  Milwaukee, KC and Detroit were the only teams outside the top 15 to make the playoffs.

Five teams that made the playoffs were top 10 in BB%. The other seven playoff teams were outside the top 15. The O’s finished 19^th, ahead of five playoff teams.

Five playoff teams were in the top 10 in terms of best K% (i.e., struck out the least), including the top three teams. The Dodgers, Orioles (13^th) and Phillies were the only other playoff teams in the top 15. Four other playoff teams finished outside the top 15.

Eight of the top 10 teams in terms of offensive fWAR made the playoffs. The Orioles finished 4^th.  Eight playoff teams also finished in the top 10 in terms of wOBA.  The Orioles finished 5^th. Eight of the top 10 teams in OPS made the playoffs. The Orioles finished 4^th. Lastly, eight of the top 10 teams in slugging% made the playoffs. The Orioles finished 3^rd. The Orioles were 3^rd in wRC+. Eight of the top teams in wRC+ played this month.

Seven of the top 10 teams in OBP were playoff bound. The Orioles finished 11^th, just a few points from being in the top 10. They ended up with a .315 OBP, which was about 20 points shy of the best teams and 10 points shy of the next tier. To go along with this, eight of the top 10 teams in terms of batting average made the playoffs. The Orioles finished 7^th. The Orioles also finished 7^th in total hits.

Next , let’s take a look at some of the Statcast numbers. Six of the top 10 teams, including the top 5, in exit velocity got into October. The Orioles finished 3^rd. Seven of the top teams in hard hit% got in. The Orioles finished 2^nd. Five of the top 10 in barrel% played for the trophy. The Orioles finished 6^th.

Basically, the Orioles offense excelled at everything and even those categories where they were outside the top 10, they were still better than league average. All of this evidence exists but yet, the Orioles NEED a new approach? Why?

Well, one thing that has been discussed is the team’s struggles in clutch situations. As a team, they were 4^th in WPA, although the top three teams were miles ahead of everyone else. Nine of the top 10 teams in offensive WPA made the playoffs. With two outs and RISP, the Orioles had a .232/.311/.421/.732 slash line. League average was .233/.327/.388/.715. In late and close situations, the Orioles have a .774 OPS. The league average was .678. When behind in the game, the Os had a .718 OPS. The league average was .686.

The Orioles finished just under league average in terms of scoring a runner from third base with less than two outs. The only playoff teams worse than them were the Mets and Braves.  The Dodgers and Brewers were barely ahead of the O’s. The best teams in the league at this stat were 30-40 runs better than the O’s. (of course, the O’s made up the runs in other ways compared to those teams).

We also heard that the O’s needed to play small ball and advance runners. The O’s were 5^th best in MLB in terms of having a runner on second with none out and the runner advanced. Now, the Orioles were below league average in terms of having productive outs. The Braves, Mets and Tigers were the only playoff teams worse in this category. People complained the Orioles didn’t bunt (i.e., more small ball, advancing runners).  Only three of the top 10 teams on terms of sacrifice bunts made the playoffs. In fact, more teams in the bottom 10 in this stat made the playoffs (five teams to three teams). The Orioles were next to last in this stat. The Orioles were slightly better than the league average in terms of putting balls in play. The Dodgers and Phillies were right there with them.

One thing I will say is that the Orioles’ team BABIP was .288, which was 19^th in the league. Last year, they were 9^th in the league with a .305 BABIP.  So whether or not people want to acknowledge it, the Orioles were somewhat unlucky in 2024. Their team xBA was .253 and actual BA was .250.  It doesn’t sound like a lot, but that’s about 20 hits. Twenty hits could have made a big difference in winning a few extra games.

Are the Orioles batters seeing enough pitches?  Well, they finished 12^th in the league in P/PA. Five playoff teams were worse.  What about the idea that the O’s are just going up hacking away and have no plan?  Well, the Os had the 12^th best swingstr% rate in the league. Six playoff teams swung and missed less than the O’s. Only two playoff teams were worse than league average. Only four teams in the league swung at the first pitch less often than the Orioles did.

I know this is a lot of numbers and people are going to say, well they didn’t come through when it mattered in the playoffs. That’s true. They swung at a lot of bad pitches and looked foolish at times. I agree with that. However, is that an approach issue or is that a mental issue?  For me, I think it’s mental.

The stats I shared are undeniable. The Orioles largely finished in the top 10 in every major category. Their clutch stats were better than league average. Is there some room for improvement in certain areas?  Yes I think so. I would like to see the OBP go up. I would like to see them be better at scoring runners from third with less than two outs. But for the most part, we are saying we want them to go from well above average to maybe the best team in the league in category X? That is the standard we are trying to have? I mean, that’s fine, but I think that’s going a little overboard.

For me, I think there is some roster tweaking that needs to be done, and the team needs guys like Adley Rustchman, Coby Mayo and Jackson Holliday to be a lot better. Of course, they need better injury luck. Otherwise, I don’t see any evidence that this team needs a drastically new approach.

Teams that hit homers score runs. We have seen in the playoffs this year that teams that hit homers are scoring and winning. It’s hard to string together a bunch of hits in today’s game with the pitching being what it is, especially as you get into these bullpens with all the hard throwers out there.

Whether it’s a new school stat, a statcast stat or an old school stat…the Orioles are excelling and yet most of the fan base wants to mess with that? It’s an odd take, in my opinion.

Mike Elias has a lot of work to do this offseason. He needs to tweak the roster. He has to stop being so obsessed with having lefties in the lineup because of Walltimore (for the second time in three years, OPACY was better for righties than lefties.)

However, something Elias doesn’t need to spend a lot of time on is changing the hitting philosophy around the team. Perhaps some things need to be tweaked but a little more luck and a little more health, and I think those things will be fine.