So according to multiple media reports, the Orioles are close to an agreement or have an agreement (depending on who you believe) with free agent RHP Ubaldo Jimenez.
What are the Orioles getting with Jimenez exactly?
Well first the positives:
Jimenez has pitched 180-200+ innings five out of the past six seasons, making 30 starts in each of those six seasons. He’s got a career GB/FB ratio of 1.43 and a 47.6% GB rate so that will be very useful in Oriole Park at Camden Yards as well as the launching pads of Rogers Centre and Yankee Stadium.
Since 2008 he’s only had one season below 3.0 fWAR, and had a 3.2 fWAR season last year, which would have led the Orioles ahead of Chris Tillman at 2.0 fWAR
Now the negatives:
He may have pitched all those innings and made those starts but the two stats he hasn’t fared so well with lately have been quality starts (QS) and IP/start. Here’s what they look like over the past five seasons:
2009: 33 GS, 24 QS, 6.61 IP/start
2010: 33 GS, 25 QS, 6.70 IP/start
2011: 32 GS, 16 QS, 5.88 IP/start
2012: 31 GS, 13 QS, 5.68 IP/start
2013: 32 GS, 16 QS, 5.69 IP/start
So notice the starts he made were pretty consistent; however, how deep he went into games wasn’t and in spite of his “rebound” year last season, his QS and IP/start still aren’t at his 2009-2010 levels, which is where the Orioles need them to rebound to.
In comparison the Orioles could have had Jason Vargas for the same deal he got with the Royals and Vargas has averaged 18 QS and 6.38 IP/start the past three seasons. Miguel Gonzalez also had 19 QS and 5.72 IP/start last year and Jimenez isn’t an improvement over that even at 2013 levels.
Also, Jimenez has a very high BB rate, with it at 3.9 BB/9 last season which is part of the reason he doesn’t last as long in games. Even during his best years with the Rockies he was at 3.5-3.7, so walks are just part of his game.
So what do the Orioles have with their reported four-year $48 million investment?
They’ve got a player that is going to be highly entertaining, but will need to harness his control a bit better so he can last longer in games like he did in 2009 and 2010. Otherwise their investment is going to seem too costly to justify the fewer QS and IP/start that they could have had with a cheaper option.
The Orioles needed to get another starting pitcher to pitch 180-200 IP in 2014, and I think they did just that. The question is did they get a pitcher that will give them the much needed 20 QS +/- to help out the bullpen? For that answer, we’ll have to just wait and see…
One Response
5 2/3 innings pitched and 2 earned runs allowed is an ERA of 3.18, but it is not a quality start, while giving up another earned run to get 1 more out would give a line of 6 IP, 3 ER, a 4.50 ERA and a quality start.
Going 6 2/3 innings and allowing 3 earned runs is a quality start and seems pretty good, but it is also an ERA of 4.05 which is higher than the 2013 median team ERA for starting pitchers in the AL.
I’d rather have the starter go 5 2/3 innings with 2 earned runs than 6 2/3 with 3 earned runs, and build a bullpen with lots of multiple inning relievers.