As we get beyond the holiday season, baseball fans can turn their attention to the start of spring training, which is just about six weeks away. For the Orioles, this offseason has garnered a lot of fan angst and some mixed reviews amongst the national writers.
I believe this was never going to be a “sexy” offseason. The O’s just didn’t have many holes to fill and most if the moves they need to make are more about role players. The only move that was realistically going to happen that would make people really get excited was bringing back Corbin Burnes. Yes, Max Fried and Blake Snell were also available but Fried was probably never really on our radar (and vice versa) and Snell reportedly wanted to stay on the west coast. Burnes was the O’s chance to make the splash so many wanted. However, Burnes chose to be close to his family’s home in Arizona.
Over the last few years, I have written here and discussed on social media platforms about my perception that Mike Elias is just not going to sign players to these massive long-term, nine-figure free agent contracts. Hopefully, he will ink those deals in the form of extensions for players already here, but in terms of free agents, it’s just not going to happen.
Elias is a risk averse guy. Look at how he drafts. He has largely gone bats over pitchers (as bats are easier to develop and less likely to come with exploding elbows) and he trends towards the college players over high schoolers (even though he has made some excellent high school picks). He goes with the odds. He goes with what is more likely to happen.
You can say his approach wrong – and there are times where I disagree with him – but his way will continue to put Baltimore in the playoffs.
It is extremely similar to how the team across the street builds. There have even been reports that Elias, Sig Mejdal, and Baltimore Ravens GM Eric DeCosta speak regularly, including about their philosophies on team-building. The Ravens do not sign free agents to large contracts either. They supplement the roster with them, but they never “win the offseason”.
Every year, the Ravens fan base is clamoring for that big splash and it never happens. Now, the Ravens do a good job of keeping their own, so the O’s have to show they can do that (there is also a difference in doing this in the NFL vs. MLB due to the structure of contracts, how long players are under team control, etc..) but the overall philosophies are similar.
The similarities don’t stop there. The Ravens are an up-the-middle team. Middle of the offense, middle of the defense. They perhaps don’t do some of the “new school” things with an explosive passing game (although this year may be an exception) but they play a brand of football that is likely to put them in the playoffs. The Orioles are strong up the middle, with Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson & Jackson Holliday, and Cedric Mullins (with Enrique Bradfield in waiting).
However, like the O’s recently, the Ravens’ playoff success hasn’t been there and that is where you can start to question whether they should be doing something differently.
Many are ready to throw that same shade at the orange birds. However, it’s too early for that in my estimation. While getting swept in two straight playoff series is certainly not ideal, the sample size is a measly five games, and the luck factor in baseball is even more prevalent than it is in the NFL.
Elias cut his teeth in Houston and St Louis before that. Those two organizations have been two of the best in baseball for a long time, and neither have really spent big in free agency. Houston made an exception when they brought in Josh Hader, but otherwise, their free agent contracts are generally shorter in length lower in total dollars. The Atlanta Braves also have a similar strategy.
Now, those teams sign their homegrown players to extensions, and the O’s have yet to do that, so that is a fair critique. I also believe these extensions are grossly overrated by fans and the media but that doesn’t mean there aren’t a few players I would like to see signed (even if the deals aren’t great for the team financially).
Still, fans are completely over the top with these free agent deals and the “need” for the O’s to sign them.
When it came to Burnes, it seems Elias was prepared to go against his nature. While we do not know exactly what was offered, we know it was a lot. We know it would have been the biggest deal in franchise history, and based off reports from national writers, the O’s actually offered more money than the Snakes. Either way, Elias saw that player and contract differently than say, a deal for Fried. Signing Burnes would have been like handing him an extension. You get a guy you know, a guy you have seen work, you know how he fits in the clubhouse, etc…I think that’s why Elias was willing to do it.
Beyond signing Burnes, the offseason strategy has turned into one of raising the floor of the team as much as possible. The O’s didn’t enter the offseason needing to do much. The offense was largely set.
We knew they would likely let Anthony Santander walk, and we knew that they would try to sign a right-handed outfielder, which they did very quickly with the addition of Tyler O’Neill. We knew they needed a backup catcher, and they brought in Gary Sanchez.
We also knew they needed to add a starting pitcher, especially if Burnes left. They have, thus far, added two of those with the recent signing of Charlie Morton, to go along with the previous signing of Tomoyuki Sugano.
Now, neither of those pitchers are what O’s fans were hoping for. Honestly, it’s not what I was thinking either. I was sure Elias would add a starter as good as, or better than, Zach Eflin. So far, they have not done that.
That said, what they have done is improve the depth of the team and by doing so, have raised the floor. Despite what some factions of the fan base believe, the Orioles are a playoff team in 2025. A lot must go wrong for them to miss the cut (major players missing huge amounts of time due to injury and/or bad performance by players we believe to be really good).
Currently, the Orioles are projected to have the second-best WAR in the AL. They are coming off a season where they almost won the division and were missing several key players for large chunks of the second half. Everyone is ready to crown the Yankees again after their flurry of high-profile moves, but the fact is that they lost ~15 wins off last year’s team. While I would agree that they have improved their defense and that their roster does have good upside, there is also a ton of risk in their roster. I do not see why people continue to look at them and see a definitive division winner. The Orioles are right there with them.
While I do think that Elias has done a very good job of raising the floor of the team, it’s also fair to say that he hasn’t increased the ceiling (yet). By not adding that very good #3 starter (or better) nor the high leverage reliever this team needs, the Orioles are still very reliant on what is already here. While that’s baked in, they can increase their margin for error (and thus raise the ceiling) with those two additions.
Of course, it is still possible they add both. Maybe they add a top starter in a trade and end up dealing someone like Dean Kremer. There are still a lot of top relief options out there but it’s unlikely Elias offers a reliever even three years, let alone four. That takes a Tanner Scott or Jeff Hoffman off the table.
This is still an excellent team and they stand to get better as the young players continue to improve. I am very excited about this team’s potential. I feel the defense will be better and the offense – assuming they don’t get decimated by injuries – will be one of the best in baseball again, just as it was last year. The pitching may not be improved but it is likely not worse, especially if Grayson Rodriguez (arguably the most important player on the team in 2025) can stay healthy and elevate his game.
Everyone just relax a little in the confidence that this is a playoff team again, even if it’s not constructed in the exact way you would like it to be.
