Dan Duquette is No Andy MacPhail

Dan Duquette is no Andy MacPhail. This might elicit a knee-jerk “Thank goodness!” After all, under MacPhail (2007-2011) the O’s not only did not make the playoffs, but they did not have a single winning season…or even come close to one. So why is the title hinting that Dan Duquette not being Andy MacPhail is a bad thing?

I want to make one thing clear: my issue with Dan Duquette is not the win-loss record. Not by a long shot. My issue is not even with Duquette’s major league roster. My issue with Duquette is that in his short time with the O’s, he has done very little to bolster the farm system. If anything, I’d argue he’s done more harm than good to it. Let’s jump right into the fire. Keep in mind that this list isn’t exhaustive.

Trade History*

• 2/6/2012: Jeremy Guthrie to Rockies for Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom
• 8/3/2012: Pat Neshek to Athletics for cash considerations
• 8/28/2012: Matt Lindstrom to Diamondbacks for Joe Saunders
• 4/10/2013: Luis Ayala to Braves for Chris Jones
• 7/2/2013: Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop to Cubs for Scott Feldman and Steve Clevenger
• 7/23/2013: Nick Delmonico to Brewers for Francisco Rodriguez
• 7/31/2013: Josh Hader, L.J. Hoes, and competitive balance pick to Astros for Bud Norris and international draft slot
• 8/30/2013: Xavier Avery to Mariners for Michael Morse
• 11/25/2013: Devin Jones to Padres for Brad Brach
• 12/3/2013: Jim Johnson to Athletics for Jemile Weeks and David Freitas
• 12/18/2013: Danny Valencia to Royals for David Lough
• 3/24/2014: Alex Gonzalez to Tigers for Steve Lombardozzi
• 5/24/2014: Troy Patton to Padres for Nick Hundley
• 7/31/2014: Eduardo Rodriguez to Red Sox for Andrew Miller
• 8/30/2014: Mark Blackmar and Miguel Chalas to White Sox for Alejandro De Aza
• 8/30/2014: Jemile Weeks and Ivan De Jesus to Red Sox for Kelly Johnson and Michael Almanzar
• 1/27/2015: Stephen Tarpley and Steven Brault to Pirates for Travis Snider
• 4/9/2015: Ryan Webb, Brian Ward and competitive balance pick to Dodgers for Ben Rowan and Chris O’Brien
• 6/3/2015: Alejandro De Aza to Red Sox for Joe Gunkel

*Not an exhaustive list – there were quite a few more trades that looked at solidifying depth, but nothing of impact.

You should be noticing a reoccurring theme with most of these trades: nearly all of them were to bolster the major league roster or give payroll flexibility. Most of the minor leaguers acquired are not impact players. This isn’t uncommon for a contending club; the GM is obviously trying to make the MLB team better (oftentimes at the expense of the farm system). However, Duquette has given up competitive balance draft picks (one along with Ryan Webb, one in the Norris trade), signed free agents with 1^st round draft pick losses (Ubaldo Jimenez 1^st rounder and Nelson Cruz 2^nd rounder), and has traded significant minor league pieces all without reloading the farm system (losses include Eduardo Rodriguez, Josh Hader, Stephen Tarpley and others). This is a major concern. And my biggest concern was the significant undersell of Rodriguez (a blue chip, young lefty starting pitching prospect) for a handful of innings of an oft-injured reliever in a walk year (Andrew Miller). Of course, they did get a competitive balance pick for Nelson Cruz by not resigning him. So there’s that?

DISCUSS THIS ON OUR FORUMS

The title is that Dan Duquette is not Andy MacPhail. MacPhail was known for “percolating” and being rather conservative, but his methods always resulted in the Orioles “winning” trades. Look to the Mariners’ significant overpay for Erik Bedard (Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, George Sherrill + two others), the Astros overpaying for Miguel Tejada in the midst of a PED controversy (Luke Scott, Troy Patton + others), the Rangers overpaying for Koji Uehara (Chris Davis, Tommy Hunter), and others. To make matters worse…the Orioles currently do not have any prospects on Baseball America’s Top 50 list. The closest to that list would be Rodriguez, if he was still in the Orioles farm system and not, well, pitching for the Boston Red Sox (and quite well, I might add).

Wada Do With Hunter And Matusz?

Also of note is Tsuyoshi Wada. After signing a two-year deal with an option for a 3^rd (under Andy MacPhail), he ended up requiring Tommy John surgery and spent 2012-2013 rehabbing. Duquette opted to not pick up his option (and not even make an attempt at signing him) for the 2014 season. Wada ended up signing a minor league contract with the Cubs. In his first year with the Cubs, he ended up throwing 69 1/3 IP to the tune of a 3.25 ERA, 1.240 WHIP, 7.4 SO/9 and a 2.5 BB/9 with a 1.6 WAR. Very respectable numbers. It is possible that Duquette didn’t want to spend $4m (which ended up being Wada’s salary in 2012), but I do sometimes question his logic…

Going into the 2015 season, Duquette stuck with Tommy Hunter at $4.65m (2014: 0.6 WAR) and Brian Matusz at $3.2m (2014: 0.0 WAR). Keep in mind both of those guys are not only strictly relievers, but one is just a LOOGY. I will give Duquette one thing: Hunter and Matusz are “established” while Wada was not. But not even a minor league contract for Wada after spending all the time and effort at rehabbing him? Definitely a head scratcher.

2016: Rebuild Towards It?

I worry about the long-term health of the club. With Hunter Harvey injured (and possibly needing surgery), Dylan Bundy shut down for the remainder of the year with shoulder soreness, and Kevin Gausman struggling due to severe mismanagement by the Orioles…the Orioles can’t afford to give up any more minor leaguers. Which makes the 2015/2016 offseason all the more interesting (scary?). Bud Norris will be gone. Wei-Yin Chen will most likely be gone. To complicate things further, Bundy signed a major league contract and is out of options. This means he must be on the Orioles roster for the 2016 season. With Bundy shut down for the season, it’s very real that he’ll start the season on the DL or the Orioles will have to treat Bundy like a Rule V pick (which they most definitely will).

That leaves the 2016 Orioles starting rotation as the following: Chris Tillman, Ubaldo Jimenez, Miguel Gonzalez + two spots. One of those spots will go the way of Kevin Gausman. The other spot is up in the air. It could go to Mike Wright, Zach Davies or Tyler Wilson. The Orioles (and nearly all of Birdland) were hoping it’d go to Dylan Bundy. But that rotation is not nearly good enough. Nor is it consistent.

Duquette really has his work cut out for him. Tillman isn’t performing. Gonzalez has pitched rather poorly since coming off his most recent DL stint. Gausman is a wild card. Could the O’s mismanagement of him end up with his 2015 season being a throw away year?

Duquette is going to have to determine if the 2015 Orioles are for real…and if they’re not he’s going to have to sell some of his top tier major league talent (Chen, Davis, Wieters) in an effort to bolster the 2016 squad and beyond.

But that also worries me. After all, Dan Duquette is not Andy MacPhail. And there still is that Blue Jays controversy waiting…festering.