O’s Crystal Ball: Looking to 2016 & Beyond

I’m a big fan of Billy Beane. And I have a tendency to over quote the following, but I want to set the tone for the remainder of the article:

“You’re either building for something special, or you’re on the verge of something special. To be in between is foolish.”

The goofy thing is that prior to the 2015 season, the Orioles were on the verge of something special. They dominated the AL East and won it handsomely. They dominated the Tigers in the ALDS, but they were swept in four games by the Royals in the ALCS (albeit in four pretty close games). Then 2015 came and the star acquisition by Dan Duquette was Travis Snider. He let Nick Markakis walk. He let Nelson Cruz walk. He let Andrew Miller walk. And then there was the entire drama centered around Duquette and the Blue Jays – did that prevent him from focusing on making the 2015 Orioles a winner?

We All Know The Assumptions

When it was happening, I didn’t mind Duquette not bringing back Markakis, Cruz, or Miller…as long as the Orioles did something else to improve. But they really didn’t. They offered Alejandro De Aza arbitration. They traded for Snider. And made some other minor moves. Instead, Duquette banked on another magical 2015 run due to the 96 wins the previous season. His assumptions (and/or hopes) were the following:

• Steve Pearce would have a similar year
• Matt Wieters would be healthy
• Manny Machado would be healthy
• The rotation would perform similarly to 2015
• The bullpen would be solid
• The defense would be solid
• Two of Snider, De Aza, David Lough, Delmon Young, Nolan Reimold would snag both corner outfield spots
• Chris Davis would rebound from a disappointing and suspension ending 2014 season
• The remaining depth (Chris Parmelee, etc.) would contribute

But we all know how the above panned out. De Aza performed terribly and was traded to the Red Sox for Joe Gunkel (and now is, of course, performing well for the BoSox). Young lost all of his power and was DFA’d. Lough has been relegated to pinch runner/defensive replacement status. Snider started off hot and has shown zero hope of returning to his 2014 performance (and was just DFA’d). Reimold has been so-so. Wieters missed time and has been so-so in his return. Bud Norris was a disaster and was DFA’d. Ubaldo Jimenez was fantastic pre-ASB, but has been awful post-ASB (until his last start). Miguel Gonzalez was solid for most of the year but has been poor over his last couple handful of starts. Pearce was ineffective for most of the year, got hot recently, but is now on the DL. Pretty much all of Dan’s AAA(A) moves have failed (see: Parmelee).

Really the only bright spots from Dan’s supposed hopes have been a resurgent Davis and an Oriole MVP caliber Machado. The bullpen has been solid as has the defense. But the offense has been terribly streaky. And when it hasn’t performed, it’s been very, very bad.

A Flubbed Trade Deadline

Looking at everything together, it’s no wonder this club has hovered around .500 nearly the entire season. The unfortunate thing is that Duquette thought (thinks) this was (is) a playoff team. I’ve been saying for at least a month that it isn’t. Alas Duquette traded Zach Davies for Gerardo Parra, salary dumped Tommy Hunter to the Cubs for Junior Lake for bullpen flexibility…and DFA’d a bunch of gentlemen (Parmelee, Norris, Snider). All the while the Yankees sit on top of the division and the Blue Jays got tremendously better (acquiring Troy Tulowitzki, LaTroy Hawkins, Mark Lowe, and David Price). The only other real hope is that the Angels fall apart and lose that other Wild Card spot. But even that looks unlikely with the O’s current squad and lackluster performance.

So all we can really do is look forward to 2016 and beyond. Here’s what it all comes down to:

Draft Picks

It’s mostly a foregone conclusion that the Orioles will offer soon to be free agents Chen, Davis, and Wieters qualifying offers. It’s also a foregone conclusion that they will all decline (after all, each are clients of Scott Boras, who abhors the qualifying offer). To that end, the Orioles will get three draft picks in the compensatory round (after the first round). If you’re curious how that process works, feel free to read more here. Between the Orioles being awarded a competitive draft pick between rounds two and three, the 69^th pick (due to not signing 2^nd rounder Jonathan Hughes), the three picks for Chen, Davis and Wieters (assuming they don’t resign) and their 1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd round picks….and the Orioles have *8* picks in the first three rounds of the 2016 draft.

This is a HUGE opportunity that the club can ill afford to flub.

An Opportunity To Retool (The Majors)

Despite my overall pessimism with the way Duquette operates (sign a bunch of former 1^st rounders and AAAA players and hope that the bulb comes on – as it did for Pearce, and has at times for Jimmy Paredes), the Orioles are not in a situation where they need to completely rebuild. I’ll borrow from other GMs when I say the Orioles need to retool/reload. After all, the Orioles still have the following around for at least 2016:

• Adam Jones – CF
• Jonathan Schoop – 2B
• J.J. Hardy – SS
• Manny Machado – 3B
• Jimmy Paredes – DH
• Ryan Flaherty – UTIL
• David Lough – Backup OF, PR
• Caleb Joseph – C
• Zach Britton – CL
• Brad Brach – RP
• Mychal Givens – RP
• Dylan Bundy – RP**
• Brian Matusz – RP*
• Kevin Gausman – SP
• Chris Tillman – SP
• Ubaldo Jimenez – SP
• Miguel Gonzalez – SP

*Matusz is in his final arbitration year…and I don’t think the O’s should tender him a contract.

**Due to Bundy’s major league contract, he either has to be on the roster to start 2016 or on the DL. Depends. Either way he’s in the bullpen as I can guarantee he won’t be cut if healthy.

Some obvious glaring spots that need to be filled: LF, RF, 1B, SP, a couple RF and a couple bench pieces.

With the contracts of Davis, Wieters, Chen, O’Day and all the DFA’d/traded players that started the year off the roster, the O’s are looking at around $50m+ off the books. Certainly players will get arbitration increases (Britton, Tillman, Gonzalez, etc.). But we’re talking about a massive exodus of salary off the roster. This is a perfect opportunity to look long term and short term to retool. The O’s payroll in 2014 was roughly $110m. In 2015 it was nearly $120m. We’re probably looking at a max payroll of $130m. That gives about $60m of wiggle room. And here’s how I’d use it…in order:

1. Extend Machado.
2. Extend Machado.
3. Extend Machado.

Machado is that important. But seriously, here’s the real order:

1. Extend Machado. FA in 2019 so he has three years left on his contract. Extend him an additional seven years. With two surgically repaired knees, you have to imagine a long term contract that’d put him into age 32/33 would be enticing to him. So, something like $160 for 10 years.
2. Sign Jason Heyward. He’s only 26 and would shore up a corner outfield spot. He’s averaged 5.0 WAR per year. He’s currently making ~$8m. I think you need to go 7-8 years for an average salary of $16m-$18m/year.
3. Sign Pearce to a 1-2 year deal. He’s a fine backup INF and OF player with some DH pop when healthy. And with the 1B market a disaster and Davis commanding big money…I think he’s a good stop gap option.
4. Sign a SP. The O’s will not go big for a David Price type. And nor should they. I think they’ll end up with a Marco Estrada type. Or even resign Chen. Think 4-5 year deal at $10m-$12m/year.
5. Sign Davis. He’s only 29 (will be 30 at the start of the season). He’s been reasonably healthy. He plays a decent 1B. I think he’ll command a 5-6 year deal at $15m-$20m/year.
6. Sign Darren O’Day. Incredibly durable. Rock solid. Has been worth about 2.0 WAR a year. Great character guy. Making about $4.2m this year. I think you can get him for a 3 year/$21m type contract.
7. It’s time for Dariel Alvarez to seize a COF spot.

I figure getting #2 and #4 above is pipe dream. But one of them (Heyward) might be realistic given how much payroll is available. You figure Manny’s first year will be something like $10m, Heyward will be ~$18m, Pearce at about $5m, an Estrada/Chen type is going to be $10m and O’Day at $7m, that’s $50m right there. Will the arbitration increases you’re right up against the max payroll of $130m. But what this does is solidify the rotation, fill the entire field save for a corner outfield spot, and rounds out most of the bullpen. All that’s left is the bench which can be filled with players from the minors.

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An Opportunity To Rebuild (The Minors)

With the plethora of draft picks coming the O’s way in 2016, the O’s can rebuild the minors. With Bundy now having to be on the major league roster and Davies having been traded, Harvey is really the only stud pitcher left in the organization. The O’s need to draft some college arms. They can ill afford to draft high school arms that are too far out. They need more Gausman types (relatively polished, can be brought to the majors soon).

Assuming the O’s sign Heyward, they’ll lose a pick there. And if they sign Chen, the same goes there. So we’re looking at least six picks in the first three rounds. I fully expect for them to go hard after some college arms as well as 1B and OF. Then hopefully the O’s can develop them. This has been the Orioles’ problem for at least a decade. Maybe that’ll change with some of the organizational changes over the years under Duquette’s tenure. Otherwise the future could look very bleak.

Wrap It Up

Davis is going to be missed terribly if the O’s can’t resign him. It’ll be back-to-back years losing players that can hit 40 homers. But signing a Heyward type will shore up the outfield and make the overall lineup better. It can then give the Orioles an opportunity to try an Alvarez type in the OF.

I honestly don’t think the club misses much of a beat with Caleb Joseph behind the dish. A combination of him and Steve Clevenger is both cheap and capable until Chance Sisco (20 years old at Frederick, hitting .306/.383/.413 – .796 OPS) is ready.

The infield (3B, SS, 2B) remains pretty set. Without Davis the O’s will have to stick with someone like Pearce. Not the end of the world, but just goes to show you how important Davis is to this lineup.

The SP and RP should remain respectable. Not world beating, but stable.

All in all, this is the offseason where Duquette has to be very aggressive and Angelos needs to open up the pocket book to solidify this team for at least the next 3-4 years. The Orioles future could still be bright. However, if Duquette isn’t aggressive, it’s easy to see that 2016 will be a lackluster affair and one not to look forward to.