Ever since MLB writer and BBWAA member Raul Ramos reported that the Orioles had made a sizable contract offer to free agent Carlos Correa prior to the lockout, the memes have been flying. Whether you believe the report or not, it’s been a fun talking point to help Orioles fans get through what has been a frustrating offseason.
On Tuesday, we published a piece pointing to reasons why you, as an Orioles fan, should not want Correa in the orange and black for the next decade. It is fine to agree with the points made; however, I’d like to present my counterargument.
You Want Correa
Carlos Correa is really, really good at baseball. The 27-year-old is just entering his prime and is coming off the best season of his career to this point. In 2021, he slashed .279/.366/.485, setting a career high with 26 home runs and becoming the first Houston Astros player ever to score over 100 runs in a season. He both walked at a higher rate and struck out at a lower rate than he ever has before. He also won his first Gold Glove, leading all defenders (not just shortstops) with 20 defensive runs saved and finishing in the 98th percentile in outs above average. And, for the second consecutive season, the “injury-prone” All Star infielder did not miss any significant time due to injury, on his way to a fifth place finish in the American League MVP voting.
To put his bat into perspective, let’s take a look at how his 2021 numbers stack up with the rest of the Orioles (min 200 PA).
.279 AVG: T-2nd (Cedric Mullins .291, Ramon Urias .279)
.366 OBP: 1st
.485 SLG: 3rd (Mullins .581, Ryan Mountcastle .487)
26 HR: 3rd (Mountcastle 33, Mullins 30)
92 RBI: 1st
.205 ISO: T-3rd (Mountcastle .232, Mullins .228, Austin Hays .205)
.364 wOBA: 2nd (Mullins .372)
.373 xwOBA: 1st
134 wRC+: 2nd (Mullins 136)
11.7 BB%: 2nd (DJ Stewart, 13.8)
18.1 K%: 2nd (Maikel Franco, 16.6)
5.8 fWAR: 1st
7.2 bWAR: 1st
I tried to limit myself to a few statistics but may have gotten a little carried away. Oops.
OK, I’ll get to the elephant in the room. Correa played a large role in the Astros’ cheating scandal and was shady during the aftermath. It is certainly reasonable to be upset with his behavior – I get it, and I was mad for a while myself. What they did was wrong and how they handled it was sub-optimal. But that was almost half a decade ago now. I’m over it. Sure, they took it way too far, but sign stealing has been a part of baseball for as long as the game has been around – the ‘Stros just happened to get caught. Oh, and that 2017 Astros team sent the Yankees home in the ALCS. We should have thrown them our own parade.
Sidebar: Most Orioles fans will tell you that their favorite O’s memory from this century is “The Delmon Double.” Delmon Young the baseball player became a Baltimore hero and eight years later we all still stop to watch the video every time it shows up on our social media feed. Lest we forget – Young the person was twice arrested for assault (plus another incident in which he was suspended for 50 games after he threw a bat at an umpire) and is known as a hateful, racist, anti-Semite. Apples and oranges, I know. I’m just saying.
You Don’t Not Need Correa
There is a chance the left side of the infield will be set for a while once some of these prospects make their way to Birdland. Gunnar Henderson could be a stud. Jordan Westburg could end up just as good if not better. Coby Mayo might hit 500 career home runs at the big league level. Maikol Hernandez might be the next Wander Franco. Or maybe that guy is Joey Ortiz.
“Could.” “Might.” “Maybe.”
I like these guys. I like them a lot. I think they will have productive careers. None of them have played a single inning of Major League Baseball. The argument that teams should avoid upgrading at certain positions because they have a few prospects that might be able to play the same position later down the road is not really an argument at all, especially when those prospects aren’t quite knocking on the door yet. If you have an opportunity to sign a proven, elite shortstop, you do it and worry about Gunnar when he’s ready.
You Probably Won’t (But Might) Get Correa
I guess this is the part of the article in which I leak the information I have regarding this situation.
I heard from a source and was able to confirm with multiple people that the Orioles did, in fact, offer Correa a 10-year contract worth upwards of $300 million. It appears the preliminary report from Ramos was accurate. I do not know whether or not that offer is still on the table, but I do know that it is the largest offer in terms of total money that Correa has received to this point.
Remember who represents Correa. He left William Morris Endeavor after last season and joined forces with Scott Boras in January, during the lockout. It was reported by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal Sunday night that they could be after a one-year deal and test the market again next offseason, which would allow Correa and Boras to understand each other and their desires a bit better. I was able to confirm this report with the added information that a plethora of new teams have reached out to Correa’s camp with interest in a deal for 2022.
Mike Elias’ comments Monday are discouraging. He told reporters that “it’s unlikely the Orioles will be in multi-year mode with free agent contracts” via MASN’s Roch Kubatko. To me, this means one of two things: either he’s pulled his offer to Correa after accepting that he’ll be looking elsewhere, or he’s holding his cards close to his chest. It’s not unlike Elias to keep quiet until a deal is done (which could be why none of this information has been revealed by more notable reporters), so this could be a case of not wanting to get the fans even more riled up in the event the O’s don’t eventually land Correa.
It is currently unclear what Correa’s final destination will be. As of now, it looks like there’s a good chance he’s heading back to Houston for another season. But to completely rule the Orioles out at this point would be pure conjecture. Will it happen? Probably not, but it’s encouraging to know that the organization is starting to show legitimate interest in higher-profile free agents. At some point, they’re going to have to.
