Two of our writers whose opinions I respect greatly, Jonathan French and Phil Backert, laid out their concerns about Ubaldo Jimenez last night. You can read those two pieces at the following links:
Did Orioles find right fit with Ubaldo Jimenez? (French)
Why I’m not sold on Ubaldo Jimenez (Backert)
However, I’d like to respectfully disagree with each of them regarding Jimenez. I think this was absolutely the right more for the O’s to make, for several reasons.
French’s main concerns center around the fact that Jimenez had fewer quality starts and innings pitched/start than even Miguel Gonzalez in 2013.
He may have pitched all those innings and made those starts but the two stats he hasn’t fared so well with lately have been quality starts (QS) and IP/start. Here’s what they look like over the past five seasons:
2009: 33 GS, 24 QS, 6.61 IP/start
2010: 33 GS, 25 QS, 6.70 IP/start
2011: 32 GS, 16 QS, 5.88 IP/start
2012: 31 GS, 13 QS, 5.68 IP/start
2013: 32 GS, 16 QS, 5.69 IP/start
So notice the starts he made were pretty consistent; however, how deep he went into games wasn’t and in spite of his “rebound” year last season, his QS and IP/start still aren’t at his 2009-2010 levels, which is where the Orioles need them to rebound to.
In comparison the Orioles could have had Jason Vargas for the same deal he got with the Royals and Vargas has averaged 18 QS and 6.38 IP/start the past three seasons. Miguel Gonzalez also had 19 QS and 5.72 IP/start last year and Jimenez isn’t an improvement over that even at 2013 levels.
However, as French himself pointed out in a later tweet, 2013 was indeed a bit of a tale of two seasons for Jimenez.
@EutawStReport Jimenez did have 10 of his 16 QS post AS Break and averaged 6.46 IP/start so there is hope. #Orioles
— Jonathan French (@JTrea81) February 18, 2014
Throw in the numbers unearthed by MASN’s Steve Melewski yesterday, and that point is only driven home further.
- 1.82 ERA post All-Star break
- 4-0 with a 1.09 ERA over six starts in September
- Also in September, 41.1 IP, seven walks and 51 strikeouts
Backert is uneasy about Jimenez being suddenly quite dominant over the latter part of 2013 after being mediocre in 2011, 2012, and for the start of 2013 following his best season in 2010.
I just don’t think Jimenez is a difference maker. After showing promise early in his career, Jimenez hit a rough spot in 2011 and 2012, before rebounding in 2013.
Did he really though? The end of the season numbers suggest Jimenez had a bounce back season, as he finished the year with a 3.30 ERA and almost 10 strikeouts per 9 innings.
However, in Jimenez’s first 19 starts in 2013, he had an ERA of 4.56 and a WHIP approaching 1.50 with 53 walks. The last 13 starts, the ERA dropped to 1.82, the WHIP to 1.143 and the strikeouts to almost 11 per nine innings.
No question Jimenez was elite down the stretch, but did he get hot at the right time, or did he turn his career around? I have 2 ½ consecutive years that show a below average pitcher compared to 13 starts that show an elite starter.
Let’s first address the sample size of Jimenez’s first 19 starts in 2013 leading to his ERA of 4.56 and WHIP approaching 1.50. While that’s true, a closer look reveals that it was actually his first four starts that led to the bulk of those ballooned figures. In consecutive starts in early April – his second and third of the season – he allowed seven earned runs in back-to-back games, in 4.1 and 1.2 IP, respectively.
Let’s take out just those TWO starts from his 2013 numbers…
They then go from 182.2 IP with an ERA of 3.30, to
176.2 IP with an ERA of 2.70.
Over his final 28 starts of the season, he was 13-7 with a 2.61 ERA.
Pretty consistent.
Backert also brings up Jimenez’s decreasing velocity as a concern.
The other worrisome about Jimenez is his fastball velocity has been decreasing steadily. According to FanGraphs.com, Jimenez had a fastball average of 93.9 in 2011. It dropped to 92.1 this past season. That is a significant drop in two seasons, especially when you consider the Orioles just locked him up for the next four years.
This may be a valid concern, but as we who watched Daniel Cabrera can readily attest, velocity is not the end-all be-all of pitching. Not that I’m suggesting Phil doesn’t know this, of course, but he says that Jimenez was no good in 2011, then laments his drop in velocity since the same time.
Perhaps the decreased velocity has actually helped him?
To the BrooksBaseball machine!
Here we see Jimenez’s release speeds for various pitches by year. Yes, there was a drop of 1.8 MPH on his four seamer between 2011-13, but there was also a drop of 2.36 MPH on his change up. The way I choose to look at that is that the difference in speed for the two pitches went from 7.3 MPH to nearly 8.5 MPH. End result? A more deceptive change up. Never a bad thing.
(To use the same source Phil did – Fangraphs – the differences in velocity are as follows: Fastball – 2011: 93.9; 2013 – 92.1. Change – 2011 – 86.6; 2013 – 84.2. Difference of 7.3 MPH to 7.9 MPH)
How about how often Jimenez uses each of his pitches?
It’s evident that Jimenez knows he can’t just overpower hitters with his fastball, as he went from throwing it about every three pitches in 2011, to every five pitches in 2013. He added a cutter in 2013, and relied much more on his slider and splitter than on his curve and change as he had in the past.
That says to me that Jimenez really has sort of reinvented himself as a pitcher, and makes me hopeful that the results we saw over the final five months of 2013 are indicative of those we can expect in 2014 and beyond.
Backert did have this one key positive thing to say as well:
The positive for Jimenez is he doesn’t give up the long ball. For his career, Jimenez gives up 0.7 homeruns per nine innings. With the small ballparks in the AL East and the strong defense the Orioles have, that is a huge positive.
We all know how important keeping the ball in the yard – especially in The Yard – is. How often last year would an Oriole starter have a solid outing going, only to lose it quickly on the long ball? Perhaps we won’t have to worry about that with Jimenez.
Finally, did the O’s overpay? Well, according to the advanced metrics, they did not:
@NestorAparicio he has 2 b worth about 2-2.5 WAR a season to be worth the deal….in 5 of the last 6 years, he has been worth 3.3 WAR+
— rob shields (@BSLRobShields) February 18, 2014
You pay a premium for wins in today’s MLB.
I, for one, applaud the Orioles for this move. I can’t wait to see how it turns out…while I obviously don’t know, I’m hopeful.
Stats via Brooksbaseball and Fangraphs
