The O’s Lost Corbin Burnes – Now What?

As we enter the New Year, there is a large portion of the fan base that is in full freak out mode after the O’s predictably lost staff ace Corbin Burnes. While I understand the feeling that comes with losing one of your best players, the O’s 2025 season isn’t over. There is still a lot of the offseason left and there are plenty of good options out there to continue to improve the team and particularly the pitching staff.

Losing Burnes

Burnes has left the Orioles to be close to home with the Arizona Diamondbacks. He actively sought out the Snakes, taking less money to sign there. The facts that he made the effort to reach out to them and that he took less money, despite being a Scott Boras client, should tell every O’s fan that the team could not compete with that.

Had the Diamondbacks turned him down, maybe the Orioles sign him. Bob Nightengale and Jon Heyman reported that the O’s put out franchise record-breaking offers and that they were amongst the highest bidders. Locally, the Baltimore Banner reported that the O’s offer fell short of the Arizona offer. I guess it depends on whatever narrative you want to believe but the overall point is that the O’s put an offer on the table that may have gotten him signed if not for Arizona. However, when factoring in taxes, the O’s would have had to put around a 6/225 offer on the table just to effectively match the Arizona offer and obviously he wasn’t coming here just on a price match.

What would it have taken?  Well, he clearly valued family over money, so perhaps no offer would have done it.  However, if we want to assume there was SOME number that could have lured him away, what is that number?  7/280? 8/300?

I get that some of you were basically saying give him a blank check, but that would have been foolish. Burnes has some red flags in terms of his declining strikeout rate and the idea that over the last two years, he has seen his whiff% drop significantly. This doesn’t mean he’s not good. He is still excellent, and I expect him to be excellent for another few seasons, assuming health. However, where will he be after that? Some assume he is trying to pitch more to contact and get outs earlier in the count. Maybe, but pitching to contact can be dangerous in that you are now relying on your defense, and you are increasing your chances of giving up baserunners. Baserunners, not Ks, are what increase pitch counts.  Remember, a ball put in play is an out 70-73% of the time. A strikeout is an out over 99% of the time. Some portions of his Statcast page also see small signs of decline.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s still an excellent profile overall and I admit that I am nitpicking in some ways, but Burnes is 30 and those seemingly small signs of decline can turn into larger problems as players get on the wrong side of 30.  Of course, he could also be Max Scherzer, who was one of the very few players to sign a large nine-figure FA deal that ends up paying off. It’s not that it’s not possible for Burnes to do that, it’s just that the odds are stacked against it.

At some point, the juice is not worth the squeeze and that point was likely what it would have taken to convince him to stay here.

So, What’s Left for the Rotation?

This is the question the O’s fan base is now asking. The Orioles surprised all of us when they went out and signed Japanese legend Tomoyuki Sugano. Sugano has been a stud over in Japan and just won the equivalent to their MVP award last season. Known for his impeccable control and command, Sugano will come here with an impressive resume but also a lot of questions.  He has a low strikeout rate, but that is also not unusual over in Japan. In their hitters, they value contact rates and putting the ball in play.

Think of the teams last year that gave the Orioles fits…the Guardians, Royals, Astros, etc…all of them were contact teams that were tough to strike out. They would single you to death (see my issue with Burnes). Its like death by a thousand cuts. We have seen many Japanese pitchers come to America and see big jumps in their strikeout rates increase because of the differing styles. That said, even if his K rate increases, his HR rate is also likely to increase. In the NPB, his HR rate was very low but again, that reflects how they play the game. I would guess the BB rate can still stay low, but I think his ability to be successful will be based around the HR ball.

Either way, there is some risk there and he can’t be the only pitcher added. I did not feel they would add two starters, but I guess they felt that the depth was needed and that there is some decent upside with this play.

Who is that second guy they add?  There are two free agent options that stand out right now.

The first one, and part of a rumor going around today, is our old friend Jack Flaherty.

A lot of O’s fans are against Flaherty because he didn’t pitch well here in 2023. Some even felt he didn’t “look” like he wanted to be here. Of course, those are probably the same fans that thought Joe Flacco never cared about the Ravens or football either.

(Somehow, Baltimore is full of body language experts.  Who knew?)

Anyway, it has been reported that when the O’s acquired Flaherty for the 2023 stretch run that he was on fumes. He had barely pitched the previous two seasons and the innings piling up influenced his stuff. That doesn’t change how some fans feel. However, Flaherty is still just 29 (he turns 30 during the playoffs next year) and in the four seasons (not including 2020) that he has been healthy, has a 12 fWAR and has made 27 or more starts and averaged ~165 IP per season. His peripheral stats are very good and his Statcast numbers are also very solid. There aren’t really any signs of decline or things you worry about in his game.

Now, is he the same pitcher he showed in 2024? Who knows? He reportedly wants a five-year deal. I do not see him getting that. I think he gets a three-year deal with an opt out after year one. I think teams will want to see him do it again before committing longer term to him. The Orioles will not lose a pick if they sign him but they could lose him after the season, which means they stand to lose three starting pitchers after 2025. That could be a problem from their end, if that is indeed the type of contract he ends up getting.

Another free agent option is Nick Pivetta. I imagine that if the Orioles signed Pivetta that the fan base would go nuts, accusing them of penny-pinching and saying he can’t replace Burnes, blah blah blah. What I can tell you is this…the Orioles are not going to replace Burnes 1:1. In other words, we are not going to add a staff ace. We are going to add another pitcher that will be like Zach Eflin…i.e., a pitcher that, if healthy, will provide innings and pitch to a 3.5-4 ERA. Pivetta can be that guy. His stats prior to 2023 were nothing special. His 2018 season was very solid, so he has shown it before. Of course, that was so long ago that it would be foolish to count on anything similar.

However, he has shown great improvement in the last two seasons, which is unusual, given the fact that he is about to turn 32. The improvement is undeniable though. He has had some excellent K rates in the past, but posted the best of his career in 2023 and 2024. His walk rate has also plummetted, culminating in a career best 2.2 rate in 2024, while his Statcast numbers are better than they were a few years ago.

Pivetta’s HR rate has been his big problem, but getting out of Fenway figures to help with that. He has traditionally not been good against lefties, but was excellent in 2024. Over the last two seasons, Fenway has been the second most hitter-friendly park in MLB according to Baseball Savant park factors. Even with the LF wall moving in, it’s likely OPACY will play less hitter friendly than Fenway.

A Pivetta acquisition isn’t ideal but there is enough there are reasons to believe he can further improve from the near-sub-4 ERA pitcher he’s been recently.  His xERA in 2024 was 3.59, and it has been under 4.00 in three of the last four seasons.

The issue with Pivetta is also that the Orioles will lose their third highest pick if they sign him (which is likely to be the comp pick they will receive once Anthony Santander signs elsewhere.)

The balance with Pivetta is how much value to place on that pick (and the player of course) versus what it may cost to trade for a starter.

That is the Orioles’ other option. They could deal for someone, and the name out there we hear the most is Seattle’s Luis Castillo.  Castillo has been an ace-level pitcher at times in the past, but he is showing some signs of decline. While his contract isn’t prohibitive, I think it will cost a lot less to acquire him than I have seen some speculate. The red flags are not something to ignore. They aren’t enough to turn me away and I would be very happy to move one of the Ryans (I want Coby Mayo to be the everyday first baseman) for him. Elias may need to include another minor piece or two but I hope he’d be open to that.

Personally, I’d value the draft pick higher than what I believe the package would be for Castillo, so I would rather make the trade than sign Pivetta.

Two other names that could be out there are Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray.  Lopez would be the costliest. He has a relatively cheap contract, with four years and $76M remaining.  I am not interested in trading Mayo or Samuel Basallo for him. Teams are simply not trading top ~10 prospects. Even Garret Crochet didn’t require one, so I don’t think Lopez would, but a deal built around Heston Kjerstad (and obviously some more pieces) would be something I would investigate.

Gray would be another very good target.  All his numbers, even at age 35, continue to be excellent. Gray signed a 3/75 deal last year, but it is heavily back-loaded. He is due $60M the next two years plus a $5M buyout if his team doesn’t pick up the 3^rd year option for $30M. If the Cards look to trade him, I am thinking they will have to pick up some of that deal and likely won’t get a big return.

Lastly, you have Roki Sasaki. Many O’s fans have scoffed at Baltimore’s chances to acquire him – and perhaps they are right. I personally feel more optimistic than most. That doesn’t mean I think they get him, just that I think the O’s have a better shot than they would have with most superstar Japanese players. He is said to want a smaller market, less attention and to go somewhere that values development. We also know that O’s majority owner David Rubenstein wants to get into the Japanese market. Perhaps there is a Sugano connection as well but overall, I just feel that the O’s could be a good landing spot for him.  And while you never know how he translates, there is every reason to believe he is going to be a top-of-the-rotation starter. Given his age and the contract he will get, many consider him the #1 prize of the offseason,

Will any of those guys replace Burnes?

Consider this: Corbin was worth 3.7 fWAR last year. Sasaki is probably more talented and will be entering his prime, but he has to adjust to living and playing in the USA.  Gray was worth 3.8.  Flaherty was 3.2.  Castillo and Pivetta were closer to 2 fWAR.

So, maybe you get a suitable replacement or get 75-80% of his production but that doesn’t mean you can’t win as much or more in 2025.

Tomorrow, we’ll talk about the bullpen, offense, and the O’s AL East competition.