Earlier this week, the bomb was dropped on the baseball world that the beginning of the season would be delayed because owners are horrible people. As we sit here and wait for things to change on that front, Orioles fans were presented with a very interesting rumor coming from Raul Ramos.
He posted an article, written in Spanish, about how the Orioles had offered Carlos Correa a 10-year deal. He later appeared on the Glenn Clark Show and revealed that the offered was worth 44M per year in the first 2 years and 29M a year for the next 8. That would have made the deal worth 320 million dollars.
— Raul Ramos (@RamosRauli) February 28, 2022
"According to my sources, yes, they put an offer on the table. 10 years, top-heavy the first two years where they offer around $44M/season the first two, and around $29M the next eight. I'm not saying they're going to get him, but they have interest." @RamosRauli on O's/Correa
— Glenn Clark (@GlennClarkRadio) March 1, 2022
For full disclosure, I admit I had never heard of Raul Ramos before but, according to his bio, he has recently become a member of the BBWAA and he covers the Yankees (one of the teams Correa has been rumored to go to) and Mets for LasBasesLlenas. I would assume this means he knows some people in and around the game and, seeing as he covers the sport in Spanish and his twitter bio has the PR flag on it (where Correa is from), I think it is reasonable to believe that he is reporting this in good faith and perhaps knows someone involved in the talks. This does not mean the rumor is true. It could be an agent putting it out there. It could just be a false rumor but I do think there is at least some reason to think this guy is legit.
For me, I am extremely skeptical of it not because of who put the rumor out there or the idea that no one else has confirmed or even talked about it but that I find it hard to believe the Angelos family would make this level of commitment to a player, especially one from outside the organization.
However, since there is nothing else to talk about, let’s just frame the discussion around the idea that this is true and the Orioles have a legit shot at signing him. Fans out there have said, “no way we can outbid the Yankees or Dodgers or whoever for him.” First of all, let’s debunk that myth. ANY team in MLB can outbid any team for a player. Despite the recent complaining by the owners, the game is flush with cash and new TV deals make it even easier for teams to spend a lot of money on a player if they want to. Secondly, let’s remember what the Orioles are trying to do and what they have accomplished.
I have been very vocal that the rebuilding stuff has been taken too far and that it’s not needed at this point. I was all for tanking in 2019 and to an extent in 2020, especially with the COVID stuff. I felt more effort should have been made in bringing in better talent, especially in 2021, but I also get how COVID may have hurt that for 2021 as well. The rebuild isn’t what will cause the Orioles to be a contender long-term. That is a fallacy. Let’s remember, the only thing gained by losing games on purpose is the higher pick and the higher draft pool, most of which is spent on that higher pick. Otherwise, every single thing the team has done since Mike Elias got here could have been done whether they lose 120 games or won 120 games, and 2022 is expected to be closer to the latter on the top betting websites on betstation.com.
Now, with that being said, the team has no long-term payroll commitments. They have built up a very good farm system and will have a lot of players making very little money for the foreseeable future. We don’t know the outcome of the CBA yet but it appears that while the young players may see their minimum go up and perhaps able to make some money through incentives, that’s not really going to change things.
So, what does that mean for the Orioles? Well, it means that for the next 4-5 years, their core will be making no money. Even when they hit their first and second arbitration years, you will see guys making minimal dollars compared to their value on the field. In other words, if things go right, the payroll is going to be very low for years to come.
How does this pertain to Correa? Well, it’s basically the rookie QB contract thought process in the NFL. The best commodity in sports is the rookie QB playing at a high level on his initial four or five-year deal making very little money. That allows their team to spend in other areas and pay big contracts to players that they wouldn’t otherwise be able to if their QB was making market rate for that position.
The same concept applies here. While we don’t know who will and won’t succeed, the idea behind what Elias is trying to accomplish is to have that consistent pipeline of players who can come up and continue to play at a high level for very little cost. Take a guy like Adley Rutschman for example. If he hits his ceiling, he is an MVP candidate who will make $30-40M total over his first six year. If he produces 20-30 WAR in that time frame, he is giving the O’s tremendous value. Even if all he ends up being is Matt Wieters, that’s still good value for the money, even if it’s a disappointing outcome overall. All of this can be said about the other top guys as well.
For years, we have seen the Orioles give out poor contracts. The middling deals to the middling or worse players cripple a team. The contracts for guys like David Segui, Danys Baez, Ubaldo Jimenez, Yovani Gallardo, etc.…None of those deals on their own hurts you that bad. But when you have a lot of them, it does. Those are not players that move the needle at all and they are players where a team should be able to get 80% of their value for 20% of the cost..at the very least.
Gone should be the days of paying players in that $4-15M range (with the possible exception of an undervalued elite reliever – I still feel that market is different than for other positions). But still, Elias shouldn’t be signing a 3rd or 4th starter to a 3/36 type deal. That player isn’t likely to be worth it. The farm should be producing that player.
If you are able to do that, than signing a Correa for $30-40M per year really won’t matter. On a team that can and has carried a payroll of up to $165M, that contract isn’t a big deal at all, especially when they are saving so much money elsewhere. This is a concept known as “stars and scrubs” and it basically says to pay elite guys and then have a lot of players making very little money. The concept being that mid-tier free agents are past their primes and are on the decline, so why pay them? Of course, this is partly why the players have an issue right now but this is a reality they better get used to because it’s not changing.
We then go to the next question of, should the Orioles sign Correa? There are a lot of reasons not to. How long will he stay at SS? Is his bat good enough to move to third once the time comes? What about durability? He has missed a lot of time in his career due to injuries. What about the cheating scandal in Houston? Should that impact anything?
For me, I think you sign him with the thought that you get four or maybe five years of him at SS at anywhere from average to Gold Glove level over that span. I think you also assume that after year seven, you will be lucky to get positive value from him. Are those reasons not to sign him? I think the answer is, it depends on what else you do.
I have been on the “trade Cedric Mullins” train for a while and signing Correa would accelerate that for me. The reason for that is because the Birds need pitching and Mullins is the best bet to get good young arms that help for the long haul. I think you also have to question where Mullins will be in two to four years. Will he be what we saw in 2021? Or will he merely be a good player? For me, I see him as being worth 10 or so WAR over the next four years. I think he will be a solid, valuable guy but I think the pitching he could bring in a trade is more valuable. And you have to ask yourself, if he is just a 1.5-2.5 WAR player, is that worth arbitration 2-3 dollars? I don’t believe so. Therefore, I would trade him now, when his value is potentially at its peak (the concept of trading him a year too early).
That type of thing will be the give and take when you have a deal(s) like this. You don’t keep those middling guys that you can easily replace. You keep churning bodies, that way you can sustain a deal like this when it turns bad. However, in the meantime, you are able to win and challenge for titles in part because you signed Correa.
I personally hate the idea of a contract like this for almost anyone, including Correa. However, I also recognize the need for doing things like this and I would much rather pay Correa $30-40M a year than give three of four players combined the same money.
And while the O’s have potential SS options in the minors, none of them are for sure and there is still a lot of doubt they stay at the position. Signing Correa won’t really block anyone except maybe Joey Ortiz, and we don’t know if he will hit enough to even play up here. Jordan Westburg and Gunnar Henderson could end up at second and third respectively and there is some doubt that Coby Mayo, the team’s 3rd best prospect (he is, don’t listen to anyone who tells you otherwise), can stay at third long term. He could end up at first or a corner outfield spot. So, this move doesn’t block anyone, and it gives Elias a centerpiece to his rebuild while signaling to the sport that Baltimore is ready to stop being a laughingstock.
This would also signal a drastic change for ownership and would certainly make me feel better about their commitment to winning. I am not holding my breath on this but I am hoping its true and while I do think the contract will be regrettable after year six or seven, I hope it gets done because it makes the path to contention that much easier.
