Can Jason Hammel turn his season around?

When the Orioles’ 2013 season got underway on April 2 against the Tampa Bay Rays it was Jason Hammel who received the starting assignment and up picked the win, allowing three hits, one walk, and three earned runs over six innings.

Since then poor outings have been more of the norm for Hammel than good ones. In 19 first half starts he recorded just seven quality starts, which equates to only 37% of his starts. According to Baseball Reference, the league average is 51%. Among qualified pitchers for the Orioles this season, Freddy Garcia came in higher during his time on the team at 40% (four in ten starts).

You can essentially look across the board at any number of stats and see that Hammel is having one of his worst seasons where he will make atleast 20 starts. His 5.24 ERA would be the highest of any season Hammel reached the 100 inning plateau. The 19 home runs he’s surrendered is two shy of tying his career-high, set in 2011 with the Colorado Rockies. The 124 hits allowed is twenty more than Hammel gave up last season, in 6.1 fewer innings pitched.

In 2012 opposing batters hit .234/.302/.335 versus Hammel. Not surprisingly, in 2013 all three are higher, currently at .284/.346/.468.

The Orioles have a decision to make when the season is over. Jason Hammel will be a free agent, provided he doesn’t sign a new contract. Based on what we’ve seen through the first half of the year it’s tough to see him being offered a deal in Baltimore, unless he makes a dramatic improvement down the stretch, given the presence of Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen, Miguel Gonzalez, Kevin Gausman, Zach Britton, and possibly Jair Jurrjens in the picture next spring. Recently acquired Scott Feldman, also a potential free agent, would enter the mix as well if brought back.

When Dan Duquette begins the process to ultimately decide if Hammel will be part of next year’s team I would imagine he will at some point have to consider this:

Is the dip in velocity this year compared to 2012 the main reason Jason Hammel has struggled in 2013? Probably not entirely, but it can’t be seen as particularly encouraging considering you sometimes see arm fatigue a factor late in the season.

It’s also evident Hammel isn’t missing as many bats during his second year wearing orange & black.

A look at the probable starters for this weekend’s series versus the Texas Rangers sees Chen, Gonzalez, and Tillman getting the nod so we will have to wait until the Orioles get to Kansas City to see Hammel make his first start of the second half.

Most fans feel fairly confident in the team’s chance to win with Chen, Gonzalez, and Tillman on the mound, as they should. While those three are solid, Jason Hammel and Scott Feldman will also need to not be liabilities when it’s their turn in the rotation if the Orioles are going to make up a 4.5 game deficit in the AL East.

Feldman was brought in to largely be a complimentary component. Hammel was expected to, at worst, replicate the success he enjoyed a year ago when he wasn’t injured or, preferably, improve upon it. Neither has happened to this point. Next Monday would be a good time to start the turnaround.

Stats via Baseball Reference and pitch data courtesy of Brooks Baseball