The Orioles, when they have been good the past few years – the end of 2011, 2012, and the first half of 2013 – have gone on runs. The runs have been five and six game stretches where the team packs on the wins.
But just as Boston and Tampa got white hot this season, and Cleveland and Kansas City discovered this wonderful thing called “how to win games” and Oakland and Texas picked up right where they were last year, the O’s have turned downward.
This season, sadly, has been a series of two steps forward, one step back, and lately two steps backward, one step forward.
Last year’s astounding 29-9 record in one-run games, and no walk-off losses, and extra-inning dominance that drew historical comparisons, during the 2012 regular season was because of doing things right: having a great bullpen, knowing how to manufacture runs, and having a shutdown closer who barely ever blew a save.
This season it has been a different mantra: pitch decently enough, hope to hit enough home runs to win, and hope the bullpen shows up, while playing good defense.
The defense has been markedly better, and it would be hard to find a better defensive team in the Majors than the Orioles. Just like it would be hard to find a better power-hitting team, considering the O’s lead the Majors in home runs.
The problem is that the fundamentals of baseball, other than good defense, have been out to lunch most of the year.
The O’s bullpen has been middle-of-the pack at best. Call it “the McDowell Effect” on some of the relievers like Darren O’Day and Brian Matusz from last year, or just chalk it up to opposing teams figuring out how to hit some of the O’s late-inning specialists, but the pen has not been, overall, very effective this season.
It’s the totality of the work that has to be seen, and the O’s seem to reserve bad performances for the nights that other pen members pitch well. It has not been a season of everyone pitching well, but rather a couple guys pitching well, and at least one person coming into the game and serving up a game-killing “hit-me-here” pitch homer to hitters they should have been looking out for, like (twice) Paul Goldschmidt of the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The pen has one job: hold games, not increasing the damage, and close out games where the O’s are leading. While other teams like the Rays and the A’s have made that look easy – other than one bad stretch involving Rays closer Fernando Rodney – the Orioles have struggled, and that has been a huge difference. A losing record in one-run games this year (14-22) vs. last year’s dominance is almost unthinkable, and that’s largely on the bullpen (not just closer Jim Johnson’s nine blown saves) and lack of clutch hitting.
The lack of clutch hitting is the most beguiling. Sure, teams have been gearing up for O’s stars like Chris Davis and Matt Wieters and putting on “Joe Maddon Specials” (grossly exaggerated shift defenses) such as playing infielders in mid-right field against Davis.
But that doesn’t explain Brian Roberts taking the Tampa series off with runners in scoring position after being .500+ before the series.
On Tuesday’s game, a bloop single into the outfield would have given the O’s a lead, just as it would have done on Monday’s game. Roberts was instead 0-8. Orioles hitters have seemed especially clueless when changeups have been thrown, which is usually a sign of aggressiveness at the plate, looking out for fastballs and getting fooled.
Jim Pressley, the O’s hitting coach, has been spectacular at teaching the team to hit for power in their bandbox known as Camden Yards. And his approach has really helped players like Major League HR leader Davis and All-Star Adam Jones.
But the O’s can’t seem to find ways to shorten their strokes against better pitching for the betterment of the team. The Rays and Sox, however, find ways to do that.
The O’s have lacked this focus at times and it has just killed the team. Losing three nights in a row on blown saves to the Diamondbacks is utterly demoralizing, when a blooper here or there might have given the team a little more cushion for a struggling Johnson.
The over-aggressiveness does produce home runs but also produces strike-outs and wasted at-bats in key situations. And Roberts is just one example (from the Tampa series anyway). Nate McLouth has been badly struggling, and when he has been up has not been making good outs, nor has Manny Machado been much of a factor at the plate lately.
That, and the Orioles still do not have a good DH. They missed a huge chance to go after Twins slugger Justin Morneau, who could have provided critical help to a lineup that seems to be struggling to find it.
The prediction here, sadly, is that O’s miss the playoffs unless the team can wake up – in a big way – against the Red Sox, a team that they have recently dominated. But winning two of three in a series won’t work. The Orioles need to wipe out the Sox with a sweep for a 3 or 4 game pickup. One game here or there won’t do it as time is running out with just over a month left in the season.
It can be done, but members of the O’s in the bullpen and lineup – with runners on base especially – need to find ways to get it done. Sometimes a check-swing blooper is a heck of a lot better than a swing for the fences, and a pitch-around of a guy with power who is likely to be thinking homer is also a lot better than challenging a hitter when that’s not the best option.
