Brandon Hyde didn’t lose the game for the Baltimore Orioles last night, but he didn’t do everything he could to help them win either. In the bottom of the tenth in a 5-5 game with a runner on second and nobody out, Aaron Judge stepped into the box at Yankee stadium. Against the Orioles this season Judge has posted a .341/.413/.805 line. That’s a 1.218 OPS (decent) that’s come with six home runs and 11 RBI in just 11 games. With the game on the line, Judge should have never gotten the chance to swing a bat in the tenth inning. And all those numbers I just gave you, aren’t even the biggest reason why.
When the rules of a game change, so does the opportunity to assess strategy. Baseball’s extra inning “ghost runner” rule is no different. It’s a rule most people dislike, but it’s also a rule that can be exploited. When entering the bottom half of an extra-inning with the game still tied, the visiting team has a distinct opportunity to create advantages that aren’t otherwise present.
By intentionally walking the leadoff hitter, it creates an opportunity without taking on the usual risks associated. Normally baserunners are bad, but that’s because baserunners risk turning into well, runs.
In this game scenario, if the runner on second base scores, the game is over. A runner on first means absolutely nothing offensively. Not only does a runner on first come without the usual risk, but it also increases the ways a defense can create outs by putting on a force play at all three bases. Further, it creates the possibility to record multiple outs on fewer pitches, which is the entire goal of a pitching staff (not to mention a taxed bullpen) especially in high leverage situations.
Now you might say that the home team could then simply sac bunt the runners over to second and third, erasing the force advantage and putting the winning run 90 feet away. That’s true, but they could do that anyway with the leadoff hitter and the runner on second. You don’t avoid an opportunity to create an advantage just because your opponent might try to counter it; you just keep countering.
For one, bunting is a risk… let them take it. They’re risking bunting into a double play and increasing the ways in which they can strike out. Don’t get in their way. Even if they are successful in bunting the runners over, they’ve given you one of the outs you’re trying to get. Thanks guys! You then counter by putting the next hitter right back on first intentionally (remember these runners don’t count) and now have even further increased the ways your defense can make the final two outs.
Add to these strategic advantages the fact that Judge has beat the Orioles to pieces, and this should have been the easiest coaching decision of Brandon Hyde’s career. Put Judge on.
Instead, Hyde whiffs on the opportunity and plays it straight up, resulting in a 100-mph, 27-degree (.700 xBA) fly out to right field, giving Hyde a lucky result on a bad process.
It’s incredibly hard to win baseball games. It’s even harder to do it at a rate that gets you into the playoffs and beyond that to win a championship. It requires talent, a little luck and above all good decision-making.
The Orioles rebuild is producing fruit. The talent on the field and the farm is noticeably improved. Hyde seems like a good dude and a player’s style coach. But as a manager, his job is to be prepared to make decisions that increase the chances of the team winning ballgames. If Hyde is unable or unwilling to see the edges that give his players the best chance to win, then I guess there’s only one thig to say while he’s calling the shots…
Good luck.
