Blake Snell might just be the most polarizing pitcher in baseball. He can run as hot as anyone for extended stretches, a tendency that has netted him two Cy Young awards in the past six years (only Jacob DeGrom has won more than one in the same timeframe). In 2023, Snell posted a 5.40 ERA/5.52 FIP in his first nine starts. From then on, 13/23 (57%) of his remaining outings were scoreless while he posted an astounding 1.20 ERA/2.74 FIP.
We all remember Blake Snell absolutely mowing down Dodgers in the 2020 World Series before a controversial early hook sunk the Rays. Snell has also been more than just a one start wonder in the playoffs though – he has posted a 3.33 ERA with 11.3 K/9 in 12 playoff appearances (10 GS).
Snell may be well on his way to another remarkable run in 2024 following a putrid first several starts. Over Snell’s first six starts in 2024, he posted a 9.51 ERA (4.62 FIP). The last three starts? 1.00 ERA/3.03 FIP with an astounding .105/.177/.158 slash line against him.
Snell is controlled through 2024 with a player option (1 year/$32 million) for 2025. This contract situation certainly provides some risk for an acquiring team. If Snell was to blow out his elbow in August, a hefty chunk of change goes down the drain, as he would be a lock to pick up his 2025 option. However, for a new, renewed ownership group that seems set on financially investing in the team, Snell could be an interesting pitcher to extend for significantly less than say, Corbin Burnes will net in free agency. This is because Snell is a much less consistent pitcher than Burnes. However, Snell offers the same start-per-start upside that is so valuable in a playoff series; few pitchers can so completely dominate MLB hitters.
Personally, I prefer the idea of the Orioles taking on some financial risk with Snell in the short term, rather than giving up an absolute haul of future stars for Garrett Crochet or Tarik Skubal or even signing Burnes to a long-term deal. There is also the chance that Snell has a decent but not dominant second half and is so saddled by his first half numbers that he actually picks up his ’25 player option.
In terms of acquisition cost, it’s hard to imagine the Orioles would have to give up much more than a Kyle Stowers/Connor Norby type and a lottery ticket or two if they took on all of the money owed to Snell.
Sometimes, I wonder if Snell is the personification of the bell curve meme where the caveman and the jedi both agree that he’s good while everyone else thinks he’s too inconsistent and not worth the risk. If you’re wrong, you gave up expendable players, flushed some cash, and are back where you started (.600) and a piece or two short in the rotation.
In summary, Snell has some risk of inconsistent performance but about as much upside as any pitcher in baseball at an acquisition cost that will likely be several tiers below similarly talented pitchers like Crochet and Skubal. I’d prefer to pair a Snell acquisition with an Erick Fedde or at least Nick Martinez type who can chew up some innings for the Orioles down the stretch.
This strategy would help the Orioles get to the playoffs and then have three potentially dominant starters to trot out in a five-game series.
