September is upon us, the month known for “must-win baseball,” and these next three series – Boston (leads AL East), New York (1.5 games behind O’s in WC), and Cleveland (leading O’s .5 games in WC) – are just that.
This past weekend the Orioles had an opportunity to take three games against the American League second Wild Card leader, the Oakland A’s, but had to settle for a series win. A poor offensive performance in game two cost them the sweep, as they wasted Chris Tillman’s eight innings of one-run baseball.
This late in the season, and against these next three contenders, the Orioles cannot afford to squander a dominating pitching performance like the one Tillman put on for the 33,834 faithful at OPACY.
Each of these next nine games carries meaning, whether it is climbing the standings by beating the guy in front of you or knocking down the ones chasing your tail. The last thing the O’s need is the offense and pitching staff to be opposite pages, because with both sides of the ball clicking, there is no reason the Orioles won’t be playing come October.
The good news is that the Orioles offense answered with an explosion of offense in yesterday’s 10-3 walloping, with the help of the resurgence of Nick Markakis, who hit his first XBH in 31 games and his first HR in 51 games.
That kind of game is a fire starter, and hopefully it lights them up for a winning streak. Unfortunately, it isn’t going to be easy.
The Orioles head to Boston first, to face Doubront, Lackey, and Lester in what is sure to be gritty series. The Orioles will send Chen, Norris, and Tillman to mound to counter – that seems to match up perfectly with the Sox rotation.
Chen vs. Doubront is a great lefty vs. lefty match-up. Although the O’s have struggled against southpaws (18-20), Doubront’s last outing against the Orioles ended in an early exit. In that game, Danny Valencia went 2-4 with a double and home run against the big lefty, so you can bet on Showalter plugging Danny in as the DH tomorrow.
For Chen, his only start against the Red Sox this year came all the way back on April 8th. Chen pulled a typical Chen move, throwing six innings of shut out baseball only to surrender a three-run home run in the seventh. Wei-Yin is the Orioles most consistent starter; let’s just hope Buck pulls him before his tank hits E.
Norris vs. Lackey is sure to be a heavyweight match, as both pitchers have swing-and-miss stuff. Last time the teams met, Lackey was knocked around for five earned runs, surrendering three home runs. Machado, Davis, and Markakis have been able to knock Lackey around this year and will look to replicate his last start.
For Bud, since joining the Orioles he is 3-0 as a starter, and the O’s are 5-0 in games he has started. Norris may not have a pretty ERA of 5.53 since joining the Orioles, but the Birds are averaging 6.35 runs per 9 innings when Bud is on the mound. As long as that pattern continues, Stud Bud has a shot to take down the first place Red Sox.
Tillman vs. Lester is going to be a battle between an emerging ace and a former ace who is looking to get back to the top. Every O’s fan knows the absolute kryptonite that Lester has been for the O’s, holding a 15-2 record with a 2.72 ERA. My level of frustration has led me to refer to Lester as “The Hated One” (credit to my father). Now that the O’s have turned their organization around it is time to put an end to “The Hated One’s” reign, and I can think of no one better to go toe-to-toe with him than Chris Tillman.
Orioles fans love to argue about whether Tillman is an “ace” with many pointing out that the win stats is flawed, but that is all irrelevant because all that matters is when he takes the ball, he gives the Orioles a chance to win. Tilly has been great for the O’s this year, and if it weren’t for some bullpen blunders or lack of offense, he would have a real shot at becoming the Orioles’ first 20 game winner since 1984.
The thing that has made Chris so great is ability to make adjustments and avoid the big inning. He has become exactly what the Orioles had hoped for, someone from the young guns they were grooming, who stepped up and developed into a strong pitcher. I don’t know if Chris will be the guy to get the ball in a one-game playoff, but if he did, I would know that the Orioles had a real shot to win.
After finishing up in Boston, the O’s will head to New York to try a knock the persistent Yankees off their tails. To start the series the Birds will send Gonzo the Yankee Slayer to the mound to face off against C.C. Sabathia. Although Miguel is winless against the Yankees in three starts this season, he has pitched to a 2.37 ERA in those starts.
The Orioles will close the final two games with Feldman and Chen against Nova and Hughes.
These upcoming series are going to be huge for the Birds. They truly need to win as many games as they can. Taking each series would push them closer to playoff spot, but what the O’s really need are sweeps. With the pitching match-ups they have, the O’s have a serious shot to do some damage to the AL East and the Wild Card chase. Is it gut check time? I think so.
