Yesterday at ESR, a couple of our writers participated in a point/counterpoint argument regarding the Orioles’ potential use of $50 million man, Ubaldo Jimenez. After reading both articles, I became curious to know what other fans think is the smart thing to do.
I would like to take a look at our six starters individually, break down their statistics, and ultimately take a vote to see what you all think should be done with the Orioles rotation.
“The Ace” – Chris Tillman
After a brilliant 2013 campaign in which he found himself one of five Orioles representatives at the annual All-Star Game, Chris Tillman became the face of the pitching staff in Baltimore. After pitching a career-high 86 innings in a very solid 2012 season, he more than doubled that total by pitching 206.1 innings in 2013 and solidifying his spot in the starting rotation.
Fast forward to 2014, when a rough patch of starts in late May and early June left many fans wondering if “The Gap,” as my friends and I affectionately refer to him (just look at his million-dollar smile), was truly cut out to be the ace of a competitive team’s pitching staff. During that cold streak, Tillman gave up 20 earned runs in only 14.1 innings, getting into most of his trouble very early in the game. However, after a horrendous outing in Texas in which he surrendered five runs in 1+ inning of work and was consequently pulled from the game, Tillman really found his groove and went TWENTY consecutive starts without allowing more than three earned runs.
The breakdown
Tillman’s 3.34 ERA and 2.8 WAR are certainly reasons to put a smile on the face of any O’s fan, but his abnormally low .268 opponent BABIP could be a cause for concern. I believe, however, that his success is based mostly on making quality pitches. He has a solid two-seam fastball that typically clocks in around 92 MPH, and he is very good at mixing in his 75-77 MPH changeup, his strong cutter, and his filthy 12-6 knuckle-curve. I’m sure the Orioles’ fantastic defense doesn’t hurt, either. There is absolutely no reason to doubt what he brings to the mound every fifth day.
Chris Tillman will be our Opening Day starter.
“The Stud” – Bud Norris
.@BudNorris25 taking a selfie at #OsFanFest pic.twitter.com/j4Uh9ubAUn
— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) January 31, 2015
Bud’s jolly attitude and unusually perky brand of fan interaction have quickly made “Stud Norris” a favorite in Baltimore. He is my personal favorite, both based on his on-field performance and how much he loves and appreciates the support he gets from O’s fans. Acquired him from Houston at the deadline in 2013, Bud has been in the rotation ever since, save a couple extra-inning relief appearances. For the record, he lost both of them. Let’s keep him in the rotation.
Norris has been just the type of pitcher the Orioles need in the rotation. He goes out to the mound every fifth day and gives it his absolute best effort. He gets fired up when he performs well and is not afraid to show frustration when he struggles. Only twice last season did he pitch fewer than five innings in a start, and one of those was due to a three-hour rain delay. He typically does a good job of keeping runners off base, though he did lead the league in HBP last year with fourteen.
#Orioles Bud Norris leads baseball with a 28.8 K% with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs since debuting in 2009.
— Ace of MLB Stats (@AceballStats) February 4, 2015
The breakdown
Bud’s 3.65 ERA is slightly lower than the major league average, but his 4.22 FIP was almost a half run above average. In my opinion, this, as well as his low .280 opponent BABIP, is simply a result of the O’s stellar defensive play. His fastball approaches 95 MPH on a good night and his hard slider combined with his ability to mix in his sinker and changeup keeps batters on their toes. While a select few believe Bud could pitch better in a relief role, I think he has more than proven that he deserves to get the ball every fifth day.
“The Lefty” – Wei-Yin Chen
Since signing with Baltimore in 2012 after his tenure in Taiwan, Chen has been a staple in the O’s rotation when healthy. The only real complaints that fans have voiced regarding Chen are his inability to pitch well later than the fifth or sixth inning and that he gives up the long ball too often. While these are valid arguments, Chen has still been one of the team’s most consistent starting pitchers over the last couple seasons.
The breakdown
Chen’s 2014 season was easily his best since coming to America, as he posted a 3.54 ERA despite a relatively high opponent BABIP of .298. His effectiveness with runners on base was important to his success and he was even better with runners in scoring position, only allowing an opponent batting average of .204. There is no reason to remove our only left-handed starter from the rotation, especially with him pitching as well as he has.
“The Phenom” – Kevin Gausman
After a back-and-forth 2014 season during which he was left off the Opening Day roster and was sent down to the minors four different times despite pitching well, “Gas Man” spent most of the second half of the season as part of the starting rotation. Although he did not make a start in the postseason, he was lights-out in three relief appearances in October.
Gausman is only 24 years old. He was the fourth overall selection in the 2012 draft and made his major league debut the following season after breezing through minor league batters at every level. There is no doubt he has the “stuff” to succeed at the major league level, and he has proven that when he has gotten the opportunity.
The breakdown
Gausman posted a 3.57 ERA last season despite, like Chen, allowing a very high BABIP of .307. He struggles with control at times, allowing 3.0 BB/9 innings, but most young pitchers do as they are getting their feet wet. Once Gausman gets some more big league innings under his belt and learns to better control his 99 MPH heater, he should become the star pitcher we all know he can be. However, on a pitching staff with enough experienced starters to fill a rotation, the youngster is often the odd man out. Even if he is the biggest heartthrob since 13-year-old Bieber.
got my orioles cowboy hat on! yeehaw @kevingausman #rodeoking #OsFanFest pic.twitter.com/DWTMAJKxaz
— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) January 31, 2015
“The Amigo” – Miguel Gonzalez
Almost two years ago, I wrote an article in which I broke down Miguel’s stellar rookie year and predicted him to pitch even better in the future. I was not far off. Ever since, Miguel has pitched extremely consistently. He has pitched mostly in a starting role and has thrived doing so. His composure in typically stressful situations is incredible. Personally, I love what he brings to the rotation.
The breakdown: Gonzo is one of those above-average pitchers who tends to fly under the radar…
…but gives his team a quality outing every fifth day. His 3.23 ERA last season led the team. Although his FIP over his first three seasons has been quite high and his opponent BABIP on the low end of the scale, there is something to be said about a pitcher who has a career ERA of 3.45 in over 400 innings. I do not know how you could leave a guy like that out of your 5-man rotation, but Miguel could be the favorite to take up a long relief type of role in the bullpen.
“The Money Vacuum” – Ubaldo Jimenez
Oh, Ubaldo. There is not much to be said about Mr. Jimenez that has not already been put out there. Simply put, he finished third in the NL Cy Young voting in 2010 and then forgot how to pitch until the second half of 2013. That dominant run convinced many teams that he had rediscovered his form, and the O’s were the lucky bidders who gave him a four-year, $50 million contract.
After a horrendous 2014 season featuring a trip to the 15-day DL after he stepped in a pothole, O’s fans are left wondering what will happen to Ubaldo in 2015 and beyond. On one hand, Jimenez will make $12.25M this season, and many believe that the team cannot afford to pay someone that much money to pitch in a relief role, and therefore, he should be in the rotation to begin the 2015 season. On the other hand, Jimenez could be considered “sunk cost” in which case the O’s should forget about the money and do what’s best for the team. In addition, the O’s already have five other pitchers who have made a good case to be in the starting rotation.
The breakdown
He was bad last year. Really, really bad. Combine Kyle Boller and Andy Dalton, turn him into a starting pitcher, and you have 2014 Ubaldo Jimenez. His 4.81 ERA would have ranked fourth from the bottom in the American League last season if he had pitched enough innings to qualify. He walked about a million batters (OK, 77) and left Orioles fans calling for his head after just about every start. But, as I mentioned, we are paying him a lot of money. Maybe he gets another chance, or maybe we eat the money and throw him in the bullpen.
What say you?
[cardoza_wp_poll id=54]
