PIR: Breaking Down the O’s .500 First Half

REALITY: The Baltimore Orioles are 44-44 at the 2015 All-Star break.

PERCEPTION: Being .500 at the All-Star break seems just about right for this team. In their first 52 games of the year, the O’s were 23-29 and in last place. As they began to get healthy, the Birds went on an 18-5 streak during a 23-game span, which took them from last place to first place in the American League East. But then the Orioles went into a tailspin, losing 11 of their last 14 games.

That up and down roller coaster has them at .500 and currently 3^rd place in the AL East. However, there are some positives as they are only 4.0 games out of first place and just 0.5 game out of 2^nd place.

REALITY: The Orioles end the first half with a 3.76 team ERA, which is 12^th best in MLB and 6^th best in the American League.

PERCEPTION: Orioles starters are 22^nd in baseball with a 4.23 ERA, but their bullpen is 6^th in MLB and 3^rd in the AL with a 2.91 ERA.

I was all prepared to make the argument that the Orioles pitchers are not the reason for the lack of wins so far this season. But then when you look at their ERA over the 88 games, you see that they have struggled overall. The big reason for that is the amount of walks the pitchers have given up this season. They have the 8^th most walks in MLB and 3^rd highest in the AL.

So while I still believe that pitching is not the reason for the O’s struggles in the first half, there is room for improvement.

Some can keep bringing up losing Cruz and Nick, but the 2014 Orioles scored 4.35 runs per game and it's 4.4 this year.

— Steve Melewski (@masnSteve) July 12, 2015

Now if you want a true difference from last year, look at the rotation ERA. It was 3.61 in 2014 and is 4.20 now. Always about pitching.

— Steve Melewski (@masnSteve) July 12, 2015

REALITY: The O’s are 12^th in baseball with a team batting average of .255, which is good for 6^th in the AL.

PERCEPTION: Chris Davis hits a lot of home runs, but he also strikes out a lot. Well, the entire team does that. The Birds have hit the 5^th most HRs in baseball so far this season, but they have also struck out the 5^th most in MLB.

If you have watched the team for any amount of time this year, you know they live and die by the long ball. Sunday was a perfect example of that. They scored two runs, on two solo home runs.

The ironic part of all that is that this off-season, General Manager Dan Duquette stressed that he wanted to improve the Orioles’ on-base percentage. That means, he wanted to get players who get on-base a lot. That just hasn’t worked out the way DD planned. The only time the Orioles have gotten on-base a good amount of time was during their 18-5 span, when they were just about perfect hitting with runners in scoring position.

You can pretty much break all the numbers down to one stat… hitting with runners in scoring position. Overall, the Orioles are 3^rd in baseball with a .290 batting average with runners in scoring position. That is mostly due to their 23-game streak in the middle of the first half. However, during their last six games, they are 1-for-36 with RISP and are just 5-70 in the last 11 games.

REALITY: The non-waiver trade deadline is in just about two weeks.

PERCEPTION: Everyone wants the Orioles to make a few moves to help the team. The problem is they just don’t have the players to make the moves that fans want.

You want a #1 starter? You have to give up at least a power hitter and a top minor league prospect. The problem is the Orioles don’t have one. Their top two pitchers in the minors are injured… they have no value. You aren’t going to trade Adam Jones or Manny Machado, so who are you going to give up? Don’t say Chris Davis or Matt Wieters. No team is giving up a #1 starter to rent one of those players for two months, as they are free agents and will test the market to get the most money they can.

You want a power hitting corner outfielder? Again, I ask, who are you going to give up…Wei-Yin Chen? He is your best pitcher right now. Losing him doesn’t help you as you try to get to the playoffs where pitching matters more.

More than likely, you will see the Orioles bring in a #3 or #4 starter as they did in 2013 with Scott Feldman and Bud Norris. If they bring in a hitter, it most likely won’t be a power-hitting starting outfielder, as much as it may be a quality bat to DH or come off the bench.

DD and Buck Showalter are going to do whatever they can to improve this team, but I can almost guarantee that it won’t be what the majority of fans want.