This is the time of year most publications update their prospect list, and I thought I would do the same. A lot has changed since the list I made back in February, so here is a look back at my top 20 list going into the year.
3. DL Hall
A few of these guys have graduated, and some have been kicked out of the top 20 due to new draftees and high risers. This is my list, and I follow my opinion. I don’t consider Pipeline or Baseball America rankings when making my list; this is my list and my opinion. Let’s get started.
- Samuel Basallo, C, FSL
There will be a lot of new names on this list, and we have one to get us started. While the 2019 class was the first time the Orioles dove into the International market, the 2020-21 class was the first time they signed a couple of high-profile players that cost over a million dollars. The Orioles signed Basallo out of the Dominican Republic for $1.3 Million. While he was seen as the second guy at the signing period, Basallo has outproduced his O’s counterpart. Basallo hits balls hard, apparently putting up triple-digit exit velocities as a 16-year old. He has shown off that power this year as he already has six home runs and eleven extra-base hits in his first season in the states. Basallo is a huge human listed at 6-3, 180 pounds, with a long left-handed swing that can get under baseballs. Exciting things will happen when you have a prospect that can get under baseballs and hit them hard. Basallo’s defense isn’t the best right now, and he probably won’t stick at catcher, but if he continues to hit, it won’t matter where he plays.
- Cade Povich, LHP, Aberdeen, (High – A)
Cade Povich is another new name, after being acquired in the Jorge Lopez trade. Povich struggled at times with the Twins, but he flashed in his first start with the Orioles, going six innings and struck out eight. Povich has some nice shape to his fastball that can get some run on it. Povich’s change-up is also a plus as he develops his other pitches. He misses a ton of bats, but he needs more consistency. He fills the strike zone and won’t nibble, which is good, but he also leaves too many pitches over the plate. Povich’s first start looked electric, so maybe the Orioles are well on their way to fixing whatever was up with him with the Twins.
- Drew Rom, LHP, Bowie, (Double-A)
Drew Rom has earned the nickname “Mr. Consistent.” You know what you will get from him every time he takes the mound. While that isn’t the most exciting, it creates a solid floor for him. Rom just attacks the zone with strikes. He needs to pitch like this due to his low velocity, which has caused some to be lower on him. Rom has succeeded due to his control, great breaking ball, and development of the off-speed pitch. Rom has given up some runs, which can be seen with a high ERA of 4, but he pitches in a hitter-friendly environment, so this isn’t that surprising. Rom will probably never be an elite pitcher, but he just understands how to pitch, and it works for him.
- Joseph Ortiz, SS, Bowie, (Double-A)
Talk about a tale of two seasons. Ortiz is amazing defensively, and he makes splash plays nearly every night. If you know an inch of information about Orioles prospects, you know this. The issue is his offense. He was awful for the first couple of months and turned into Babe Ruth in July. He hit .405/.438/.674 with seven doubles and five home runs, and is keeping it going in August so far. I wish Ortiz would be more consistent and not so hot and cold, but his offensive surge helped him keep his spot in the top 20.
- Chayce McDermott, RHP, Aberdeen, (High – A)
Chayce McDermott was acquired from Houston in the Trey Mancini trade. He has been building up velocity since he was drafted and was on track to take that next step for the Astros, until he ran into trouble and had to pitch in one of the best offensive environments in the minors. McDermott also looked nice in his debut for Aberdeen. He has a fastball with improving velocity and two distinct breaking pitches. He will have to throw more strikes, but he has strike-out stuff that was too good not to take a shot on. McDermott has a ton of potential if he can harness his stuff.
- Jud Fabian, OF, FCL
Fabian was a third-round pick by the Orioles in this year’s draft. He has two skills that stick out, his power and defense in center. Fabian has a swing that just annihilates baseballs with force, and he can get great jumps on balls and has an arm to back him up if he needs it. The main issue is the pure hit ability and the strikeouts. Fabian was running some huge strikeout rates in college at Florida and never was a contact hitter. He got the number down in 2022 after not signing with the Red Sox following being drafted in the second round. He was still carrying some pretty high strikeout rates, though, and it will be something that will make or break Fabian as a prospect. Can Fabian control his discipline enough so that his power can shine? Considering that he already lowered the strikeout rate in college, I think he can drop it further with the Orioles. Mike Elias has been after Fabian for a while, so it was cool to see him get his guy this year.
- Hudson Haskin, OF, Bowie, (Double-A)
Haskin was one of my favorite players to watch last year. He plays baseball like in the 1980s, with a ton of contact and good baserunning with good defense to supplement him. It was fun to watch, but Haskin has raised his ceiling for me this year. He has unlocked his power which is dangerous. He already makes a ton of contact, and now he is hitting for some power to help his profile. The main issue is availability, as he can’t keep himself off the injured list. He has missed large chunks of seasons in back-to-back years, which might hurt his upside. When he is healthy, he is just a fun watch and will stick in center for the future.
- Seth Johnson, RHP, Aberdeen, (High – A)
If Johnson wasn’t getting Tommy John Surgery, he would be a top 10 prospect. He was showing much-improved stuff over the year with Tampa and looked like another coin in the Rays’ pitching development bucket. He probably wouldn’t have been traded if he was healthy, though Elias took a chance. Johnson sat in the mid-90s with his fastball, but it was ticking up this year. His Slider is a true wipe-out pitch, and he also developed a change-up and curveball. Elias saw a young projectible arm available due to injury and took a chance on him.
- Dylan Beavers, OF, FCL
The Second Round pick out of Cal showed some serious potential in his last year. Beavers is similar to Kyle Stowers coming out of college. He is a tall outfielder with a long left-handed swing that can kill baseballs for days. He understands the strike zone well and can get under and drive them. The main issue with Beavers was the whiffs on breaking pitches. He wasn’t chasing balls, and it looked like they were coming from him just missing in the zone. This might be due to the hitch in his swing that the Orioles will try to fix. If this happens, I see Beavers as a 30-home run threat with good defense in right field. That is a profile that plays and something we can work with. Beavers was a top 20 prospect for me in the 2022 Draft, and the Orioles were lucky to get him where they did.
- Connor Norby, 2B, Bowie, (Double-A)
Connor Norby just rakes. He has much more power than I expected to see from him, even after leading the NCAA in hits last year at ECU. He’s carried that profile to the Orioles. He got off to a slow start in the pitcher-friendly Aberdeen, but has crushed it for Bowie. He has equaled his home run number at Bowie in 17 fewer games than in Aberdeen. Norby hits some moon shots as well. He has multiple homers that have gone over 420 feet. Norby looks more like a guy with 20/20 power and the ability to hit above .270 that plays. The issue is that he seems locked to second base right now as he doesn’t have the athleticism for short or the arm for third. Still, a second baseman with great power and contact numbers can be hard to find, so I don’t mind it. Norby can’t stop hitting, and he should be playing baseball in Triple-A by the end of the year.
- Heston Kjerstad, OF, Aberdeen, (High – A)
We have finally seen the former number two overall pick play baseball. Kjerstad has had an odd year. He was raking at low-A and now is struggling at High-A. I am not concerned, considering the struggles offenses have had at Aberdeen. Kjerstad is a lot better of a pure hitter than I gave him credit for. He makes a lot of contact and hits the ball with authority. The power is as advertised, and he can get under baseballs as well. The issue is the strikeouts which have been high this year, but I think he is pressing right now. It seems like every offensive prospect struggles at first in Aberdeen, so I am willing to give Kjerstad a break. Kjerstad has shown good defense in fight field as well. He needs to develop some consistency, but I think he will show how good he can be.
- Terrin Vavra, INF/OF, MLB
No player represents the Moneyball meme more. Why is Vavra killing it right now? “He gets on base.” Why is Vavra starting consistently? “He gets on base.” Vavra does this by having professional at-bats with an advanced feel for the strike zone and contact ability. He is so fun to watch offensively, and his success in the majors is why he is this high. Vavra has okay defense, but for some reason, Brandon Hyde prefers Rougned Odor defensively, which is why he has started a decent number of games at DH. Vavra is quickly turning into a fan favorite, and it is not hard to see why.
- Jordan Westburg, INF, (Triple-A)
Westburg is slightly lower than some expected, but I have my reasons. His best ability is the versatility he brings. He can play Short, Second, and Third pretty well. Offensively is where some of my critiques come in. I wish Westburg were more consistent with his bat. He makes decent contact but strikes out a little more than you’d like. I feel like Westburg getting the contact-over-power archetype out of college was wrong as he has much more power and less contact ability. However, he is ahead of Vavra and Norby because he brings more power and versatility than them. Westburg looks like a guy who can hit for a decent average and get on base with good power and the ability to play all over the dirt. That is a top 100 prospect, in my opinion.
- Kyle Stowers, OF, (Triple-A)
Kyle Stowers has light tower power. He has 30-35 home run pop in his bat, and he has been hitting more doubles this year and has improved his consistency as well. He managed to get his strikeouts down this year which was the one thing I needed to see from him. Stowers has 46 extra-base hits with his nineteen home runs and is making a statement. He has good defense in right, and he probably should be on the Orioles right now.
- Coby Mayo, 3B, (Double-A)
Coby Mayo has the best pure power in this system, and it isn’t close. Mayo just crushes baseballs, with loft. This is a great combination, and not even the pitcher-friendly Aberdeen could hold him for long. He can also make good contact, leaving him with a profile that plays. Add in his throwing arm that looks like a bazooka attached to his shoulder, and you have one of the better third base prospects. Mayo got hurt just after he got promoted, and he just got back on August 9th, so he hasn’t put up numbers yet in Double-A. Unfortunately, this does keep him out of the top 5, but when he puts up numbers, he will be back in the top 5 at some point. Mayo is fantastic, and the amount of moon-shot home runs he hits is impressive. Once he gets playing time and consistency, he will be a top 100 prospect.
- Colton Cowser, OF, (Double-A)
The run on Number One picks begins with last year’s. Cowser must have heard the negative talk about him because he has looked fantastic in Double-A. Again, struggling in High -A Aberdeen is a theme for these prospects. Cowser makes a ton of contact and has shown much more power than I expected this year. He went from a 15-20 home run guy to a 20-25 home run guy. Add this into great defense in Center and a good throwing arm, and you have a future star here. Cowser might not have been seen as that guy coming out, but his performance in Bowie has spiked him up list for me. He also runs the bases well, and the slump he went through seems to be due to the hitting environment in High-A more than his skill. If you have him lower than 80 on your top 100 list, please wise up and look at the player in front of you. Put away what you thought the player was in College, and look what he is now. Cowser is killing it right now, and the only “Colton Cowser Problem” we have is people not giving him enough respect. Cowser has earned respect, and it stinks people won’t open their eyes and see how good he is.
- Jackson Holliday, SS, FCL
The run on Number One picks continues with this year’s pick, Jackson Holliday. Holliday was my number two prospect, and his profile just fits what the Orioles want. He makes a ton of contact with good power from the left side. Thanks to a swing adjustment, he improved his Senior year annd put up some serious power numbers. Holliday also has good defense right now at short with a good throwing arm to help. Holliday perfectly fits what the Orioles want in their offensive prospects (good swing decisions, good barrel control, high exit velocities), and he should be a high riser moving forward.
- DL Hall, LHP, (Triple-A)
DL Hall is electric. Hall has a fastball that can get up to 100, a fading Change-up, and two distinct breaking pitches. Here is the issue: his command. Hall needs to stop nibbling around the zone and start attacking more. He has the stuff to do this, and he needs more consistency. Hall will look unhittable in some starts and struggle his next, which can be frustrating. I kind of understand what Elias said about Hall’s consistency. Those highs, however, are why he is so highly ranked and above others. When he is on, he might be better than Rodriguez; it is just about how many times a year he will be on. Hall is still electric, and I don’t think he will be a reliever; he just needs consistency in his starts and not to throw so many pitches because his upside is greater than any pitcher in this farm system.
- Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, (Triple-A)
Let’s get this out of the way; if Gray Rod didn’t get hurt, he isn’t on this list. He is the future ace of this staff that probably won’t pitch for the Orioles this year like he should because of his Lat injury. He did throw off of a mound yesterday, but his chances of coming to Baltimore this year are dwindling by the day. Gray Rod is awesome, and he is the best pitching prospect in the game right now. He has a fastball that can reach up to 100 that he can control, with a wipeout slider and fading change-up. It breaks my heart he won’t pitch this year, but please don’t play the service time game with him, Orioles. He should be a big part of the 2023 Orioles, and I can’t wait to see it.
- Gunnar Henderson, SS, (Triple-A)
Gunnar is beyond special, a gifted hitter with patience, who is taking his game to the next level. Gunnar has done this without sacrificing his power, and he still could hit 25-30 home runs a year. Add this to his contact ability, and you have a .280 hitter that can simultaneously hit for power and be disciplined. Special. Gunnar can also play third or short, but with Jorge Mateo still on the roster, it looks like he will be playing third for the Orioles unless something changes in the offseason. Gunnar has the arm to play third and the athleticism to play short if needed. Gunnar also has good speed and is a smart base runner. Special, there is no other word to describe him. How long can Gunnar’s talent keep him in Triple-A? I don’t know. He is talented enough for the majors since he has killed Triple-A, but the Orioles have a log jam at third right now, and unless you want Gunnar on the bench (you don’t), it remains to be seen how the Orioles handle a call-up. I still predict he will be here in September with Hall and Stowers. Gunnar is the next cornerstone of this already fun team.
There is a ton of movement, but that is to be expected. The Orioles are blessed to graduate the number one prospect and have the following number one take his spot immediately. If a prospect did not make the top 20, that doesn’t mean they are bad; there just isn’t enough room for everyone on this list.
This farm is special, this team is exciting in the majors, and there is no better time to be an Orioles fan. Thank you for reading.
