The AL East is widely regarded to be one of the most competitive divisions in baseball, and in all of sports for that matter. Unfortunately for the Orioles, 85 wins may only be good enough for fourth place in the division in 2014. With Opening Day only a few weeks away however, it is time to make picks in the division, and time to look in detail at the other four teams competing with the Orioles. This time a year ago, the Toronto Blue Jays had “won” the offseason and were a trendy pick to win 90 games and contend for the World Series, and the Boston Red Sox were coming of a 69-93 season and looked unlikely to contend in 2013. As we saw, the Blue Jays went on to finish last in the division and the Red Sox won 97 games and eventually won the World Series as well. It’s quite difficult to predict the 2014 season, as every single team in the AL East can realistically contend for a playoff spot. That being said, here we go:
Boston Red Sox
From worst to first, the Red Sox were the best story in baseball last season, as they won 97 games and the World Series in manager John Farrell’s first season.
The Sox enjoyed a resurgent David Ortiz, who refuses to age and looks poised to put up another productive season in his late 30’s. Shane Victorino and Mike Napoli were shrewd free agent signings who exceeded expectations, and Dustin Pedroia played through a thumb injury to have another successful campaign.
They lost sparkplug Jacoby Ellsbury to the Yankees in the offseason, but seem capable of replacing him at the top of the lineup with rising star Daniel Nava. If shortstop Xander Boegarts and Will Middlebrooks continue to develop, the offense may be as good as or better than it was last season when it finished as the top scoring squad in the league…by over 50 runs!
The key for the Sox is on-base percentage, another offensive stat they led baseball in last year.
As for the pitching, Jon Lester and John Lackey rebounded from disappointing 2012 seasons to show they can still be capable front end of the rotation starters, and Felix Doubront looked strong as the season progressed as well. The wild card for the Red Sox is Clay Bucholz, who started only 16 games due to injury, but won 12 of his 13 decisions with an insane 1.74 ERA. If he can remain healthy in 2014, this rotation could be one of the more complete ones in baseball.
In the bullpen, Koji Uehara captured lightning in a bottle for the stretch run and looks to open 2014 with the same job. Uehara’s 0.57 WHIP last season was historically good, so if he can pitch at a level even close to that, the Sox will be in business at the back of the bullpen. Junichi Tazawa, Craig Breslow, Andrew Miller, and Edward Mujica help complete one of the better bullpens in the American League.
Prediction: 92-70, First Place
If there is any team capable of replacing a star as big as Jacoby Ellsbury, it’s the Red Sox, who look to be poised for a second consecutive 90-win season and are still likely the class of the AL East. Even if some of the players who had career years last year end up regressing, the Sox are too deep to fall too far (they outscored their opponents last year by 197 runs, the best in all of baseball)
They have a very real chance to repeat as World Series Champions, if they avoid injuries.
One Response
Nick,
I have read all five our your AL East previews and enjoyed each one. You make a lot of good points in a short amount of space, and I won’t be surprised if the season turns out close to what you have predicted. It will be interesting to see. Three points I would make.
Each team each year is unique so I do not understand or agree with the suggestions that the Blue Jays will only improve so much over last year or the Yankees will fall from last year this much. They are different teams this year. Each will rise or sink on its own merits regardless of what happened last year.
The 2012 Orioles were only lucky in the eyes of those pundits, including New York’s Cashman, who don’t understand what it means to win. A team that wins 93 games has won 93 games. There are no extra points for extra runs or more pleasing aesthetics. Arguably, the 2012 Orioles were the most efficient team in the major leagues. A team that loses three World Series games by 10-0 scores but wins the other four games 1-0 is the champion. Sounds like something the Rays might do, doesn’t it? Don’t talk about run differential. Run differential might be interesting, it could be useful for discussion, but in the end it is meaningless. Were the Yankees lucky last year? They won six more one-run games than their season-long winning percentage would have projected. Take away those six games and they would have finished closer to last place than third! No, they weren’t lucky. They did what they had to do. Just as the Orioles did the year before. They won games.
Finally, with the exception of only a rare few pitchers in the history of the game (the Yankees’ star Mariano Riviera would be one of those rare exceptions), the role of “closer” is the most overrated in all of sports. A punter or kicker is more important to a football team than a closer is to a baseball team. Incredibly, people (those damn pundits again, unfortunately most baseball managers, and even many fans) think the loss of Jim Johnson to the Orioles will hurt the team’s performance. Statistically, the Orioles could throw almost anyone out there in 2014 and likely do as well or better than they did last year.
Thanks for letting me expound, maybe I should say vent. As I said, I very much enjoyed your observations. I can’t wait for the season to begin. Play ball!