The AL East is widely regarded to be one of the most competitive divisions in baseball, and in all of sports for that matter. Unfortunately for the Orioles, 85 wins may only be good enough for fourth place in the division in 2014. With Opening Day only a few weeks away however, it is time to make picks in the division, and time to look in detail at the other four teams competing with the Orioles. This time a year ago, the Toronto Blue Jays had “won” the offseason and were a trendy pick to win 90 games and contend for the World Series, and the Boston Red Sox were coming of a 69-93 season and looked unlikely to contend in 2013. As we saw, the Blue Jays went on to finish last in the division and the Red Sox won 97 games and eventually won the World Series as well. It’s quite difficult to predict the 2014 season, as every single team in the AL East can realistically contend for a playoff spot. That being said, here we go:
Toronto Blue Jays
For the Blue Jays, everything that could have gone wrong in 2013 did.
They made the marquee moves during the offseason heading into last year, acquiring Jose Reyes, R.A. Dickey, and Melky Cabrera among others, and were expected to contend for the division title. Unfortunately, Reyes and Cabrera both missed extended time, and Dickey had trouble adjusting to pitching outside of New York.
Elsewhere in the lineup, CF Colby Rasmus, 1B Edwin Encarnacion and DH Adam Lind had good years, but former catcher J.P. Arencibia got on base at only a .227 clip and slugging outfielder Jose Bautista played in only 118 games and looks to have injury concerns moving forward. The offense ultimately will be better in 2014, and looks to have a chance to be one of the better ones in the American League if Reyes, Cabrera, and Bautista do not all miss extended time.
The issue for Toronto comes down to pitching, where there is no true “ace.”
Dickey is slated to start on Opening Day for the Jays, but had an ERA of 4.21 last season and was especially ineffective at home where his ERA was 4.80. Behind Dickey the potential rotation will likely include Brandon Morrow and Mark Buehrle. The final two spots will likely go to J.A. Happ and either Todd Redmond, Esmil Rogers, Kyle Drabek, or Drew Hutchinson. The Jays could still do themselves a favor by signing free agent pitcher Ervin Santana, who immediately would make the rotation look somewhat more impressive.
In the bullpen the Jays have a star closer in Casey Janssen, who saved 34 games with sterling 2.56 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 2013. Options at setup man include Sergio Santos and Brett Cecil, while Aaron Loup and Steve Delabar will contribute as well.
Prediction: 79-83, Fifth place
The Jays will play better than they did last year…because it would be difficult to play any worse. The offense is talented, and the bullpen is good, especially at the back end. If the starting rotation can exceed expectations, the Jays have a realistic shot at 85+ wins and being relevant as a potential wild card team. In this division though, “better” likely still isn’t good enough.
