The Baseball Prospectus Annual is a tome of over 500 pages of player and team analysis, released, as the name implies, before every season. This year marks the 29th edition. While it’s typically most useful for fantasy (formerly “Rotisserie”) baseball players, it’s a fun read for any fan of the sport. Some folks buy one every year, but I’d imagine most are more like me in that they shell out when their favorite team is supposed to be good, or even – like this year – when the face of your team’s franchise is on the cover.
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Yeah, there was no way I wasn’t picking up a copy this season. The last time I bought one was back in 2018, and it contained this prescient nugget on then 23-year-old Anthony Santander:
Among the great enduring romances of our generation is the blissful marriage of Dan Duquette and the Rule 5 Draft. The consolation round that brought you such names as Rickard, Verrett and Flaherty this time supplied Santander, an athletic July 2 signing out of Venezuela back in 2012. His 2016 season in High-A was legitimately impressive, but the Indians ran out of time developing him thanks to a checkered injury history that left him averaging around 60 games a season. The Orioles scooped him up, and he proceeded to spend the majority of the season recovering from offseason shoulder surgery. If he can ever get healthy, he’s hinted at the ability to hit the ball hard from both sides of the plate and handle a corner outfield spot. There are worse lottery tickets, even deferred.
I’d say a guy who eventually earned the nickname “Tony Taters” was indeed a very worthwhile lottery ticket, wouldn’t you?
Since I know everyone doesn’t want another gigantic physical book clogging up space on their shelf (but get one here if you do!), I thought I’d share some of this year’s Orioles entries with my Birdland brethren.
We’ll start with what I’ll call The Position Player Studs, and continue with pitchers, prospects, and maybe more in later editions.
These were originally written for BP by Jake Mintz, whom many of you know as the O’s fan of Cespedes BBQ fame.
Let’s start with the cover model himself, Adley Rutschman. Jake took an interesting angle with Adley:
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Adley is a 26-year-old catcher with so much love to give a good team. Affable and high-energy, he’s good with pitchers of all ages, from rookies to seniors. He thrives best in a high-offense environment and loves to go for walks. He possesses 85th percentile “fetch” skills in preventing passed balls and wild pitches, and is eager to jump up in meeting strangers attempting to nab second base, though could work on his skills as a guardian against steals. Alas, the hidden-ball trick won’t work on him as his chase rate is well below league-average. Overall projection: a very good boy.
That’s a whole lotta puppy puns. Well done, Mr. Mintz.
Now to some less silly evaluations…
During his time as a prospect, Henderson was hyped as the type of player who might one day earn a statue of himself outside a stadium. But for the first two months of 2023, the eventual AL Rookie of the Year took that sentiment far too literally, blasting past the word “selective” and even “passive” toward downright “statuesque.” From Opening Day until June 1, Henderson swung at just 68.8% of in-zone pitches with two strikes, far and away the lowest rate in MLB. But from taht point until the end of the season Henderson’s 20-game rolling swing-zone rate jumped more than 20 percentage points. The surface level results, predictably, followed. A monster June, during which the 22-year-old posted a .994 OPS, rocketed him into awards consideration. He would go on to dominate that conversation for the remainder of the season, winning the award by a unanimous vote. A capable defender at both left-side infield spots who’s just starting to hone his approach and tap into his light-tower raw power, Henderson is a franchise cornerstone set to make All-Stare teams until his body grows old or the planet disintegrates.
In May, the Orioles social media team mic’d up Mountcastle during pre-game for one of those behind the scenes-style videos. At one point, he delivers a scathingly accurate assessment of himself: “My natural face just has a stupid smile on it.” That’s also a great way to describe Mountcastle the player. Like his face, his offensive approach is equally approachable and inflexible. The man loves to swing, he loves to chase, he loves to hit. When he makes contact with a baseball, it’s the equivalent of a warm smiles, but there are many times in life where other facial expressions are the most prudent course of action. If Mountcastle keeps grinning his way through that hack-happy approach, he’s a reliable, average first baseman who scorches the ball and doesn’t offer much else. Still, that’s a pretty nice life.
When Mullins hit the IL with a right groin injury on May 29, the O’s leadoff man was reemerging as one of the more dynamic center fielders in the sport. Through 54 games Mullins had a .263/.356/.479 slash line with eight homers and 13 steals to go along with outstanding outfield defense. But that unfortunate groin injury, suffered while running out a ground ball, completely torpedoed Mullins’ season. From his return on June 24 until the end of the season, Mullins slashed .205/.257/.357 with a .263 xWOBA and then went 0-for-12 in the Orioles’ brief October soiree. Lower body injuries for a player like Mullins, who relies so much on his speed to create value, are particularly concerning, but a full offseason of R&R should give him a clean slate heading into 2024. He remains entrenched as the Orioles starting center fielder, but might find himself hitting further down the lineup as the Hendersons, Rutschmans, Kjerstads and Hollidays of the world continue matriculating toward greatness.
Anthony Santander
Put the ball in the air, kids. That is, if you want to make a living. Santander had the second highest fly-ball rate in baseball – that’s called elevating and celebrating – and many, many of those files were to the pull side. But Santander has become more than just that, with his 41 doubles ranking third in all of baseball. Combine all that with a league-average walk rate and you have a player capable of hitting in the middle of a good team’s order. The former Rule 5 pick has one year left on his current contract, which has made Santander the center of trade speculation, given the cornucopia of Orioles outfield prospects. Even for a ruthlessly long-sighted team like Baltimore, trading away a dependable middle-of-the-order presence like Santander would be surprising. But if the O’s underperform in the first half, don’t be shocked if the highest paid player on Baltimore’s 2024 roster – suck it, Craig Kimbrel – gets dealt before he hits the open market. That Santander, acquired by the old front office regime, endured the years to make it to the postseason as a key contributor is incredible.
Hays has seen a lot. He made his MLB debut with the Birds at age 21, way back in September of 2017. Seth Smith played in that game, so it’s been a minute. Now a seasoned 28-year-old, Hays has survived the entirety of Baltimore’s rebuild and rebirth. The regular outfield for the 110-loss 2021 Orioles was Hays in left, Cedric Mullins in center, and Anthony Santander in right. Sound familiar? Given the space to develop on subpar ball clubs, Hays has steadily developed into a perfectly sufficient everyday outfielder. A hot first half earned him an All-Star nod – he actually started the game in Seattle after injuries bounced Mike Trout and Aaron Judge – but tailed off as the season wore on. The epitome of a Role-5 player, Hays is neither a problem nor a solution. With two more seasons until he reaches free agency, he gets to remain the Orioles starting left fielder unless his productions suddenly falls off a cliff.
Like I said above, stay tuned for more of these in the coming days.
Want to pick up your own 2024 Baseball Prospectus Annual? Click here.
