Boy, do I look stupid! @OldTakesExposed
Roughly six hours before I began writing this piece, another piece of mine published on ESR that was essentially satire, a laugh-so-you-don’t-cry breakdown of fictional players that could benefit the Orioles because yet another snag had been hit in negotiations and the lockout seemed destined to continue.
Then about 20 minutes after it was published, the news broke that an agreement had been reached and baseball was officially back. Hours spent breaking down Patti Mayonnaise Statcast data were for naught, but it’s a pie in the face I’ll gladly accept because BASEBALL IS BACK! Air Bud would still be an elite defensive pickup, but now that we have an Opening Day etched in stone it’s time to shift gears and get back to reality (oh there goes gravity). There are still a handful of intriguing free agents available, and it would behoove the Orioles front office to peruse the market and gauge interest from a few players, including:
SP Yusei Kikuchi
Yusei Kikuchi is a fly ball pitcher and Camden Yards would have been one of the worst places for him to call home…that is until the Orioles decided to create additional acreage in left field.
Dark blue nodes on a player’s percentile ranking are never a welcome sight, especially for pitchers in categories like average exit velocity and xwOBA. However, Kikuchi managed a capable 4.41 ERA last season, higher than every Orioles starter not named John Means, and the few categories that are in above average ranges could potentially be enticing to Mike Elias and company, as he’s espoused fastball spin and swing-and-miss potential in the past.
Another thing that could make Kikuchi a good fit besides moving the fence back? Outfield defense. The Mariners won 90 games in 2021, but they were a below average defensive team. Center fielder Jarred Kelenic and right fielder Mitch Haniger were both below average, coming in at 35th and 23rd at their respective positions in The Fielding Bible’s rankings. Left fielder Jake Fraley was slightly better but did not play enough games to qualify for the list. The Orioles will regularly deploy an outfield featuring Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays, with speedy Ryan McKenna a bench option providing plus defense. The Orioles already have a bevy of southpaws occupying (like Means) or competing (like Alex Wells and Zac Lowther) for rotation slots, but Kikuchi could potentially be the second best among them.
The pool of remaining pitchers is thin and they all have their imperfections, but the Orioles need more pitching, and another potential option could be..
SP Garrett Richards
A one-year stint in Boston ended with an ERA and FIP near 5.00, but Garrett Richards is another guy with two things modern front offices love: velocity and premium spin rates. I mean, look at this slider that he gets Randal Grichuk to whiff on:
He’s on the wrong side of 30 and doesn’t generate a lot of swings and misses, but he’s one of the best of a limited crop of affordable pitchers. Additionally, Richards and his 94.5 MPH average fastball would be welcome in an Orioles rotation that was a) bad and b) filled with relative soft-tossers in 2021. His ceiling is somewhere around the 1 WAR he contributed last year if he stays healthy, which is not a guarantee given his extensive injury report, but the stuff is worth taking a chance on; perhaps Chris Holt and the analytics department can use the data at their disposal to maximize the efficacy of his electric stuff.
SS Carlos Correa
There’s no need for an illustration or analytical breakdown explaining what baseball fans already know: Carlos Correa is a fantastic baseball player. The team who earns his signature will be getting an elite all-around player at the peak of his powers. He’s already proven himself more than able to rise to the occasion in playoff games, boasting an .849 OPS in 79 playoff games (yeah yeah, the garbage can thing…he’s done well before and after that).
The commitment will likely be a decade long and the total value could come close to doubling Chris Davis’s record-$161 million deal, but the statement it would send to the fan base would be seismic. Scorned by yet another streak of losing seasons and the unceremonious breakup of the last competitive Orioles team, Correa would provide an instant jolt to fan interest that combined with the new wave of young talent could initiate a new winning era of baseball in Baltimore.
Opening Day is April 7, leaving major league teams less than a month to fill their rosters. Money will be thrown around in epic fashion, the likes of which we haven’t seen since James Harden’s last trip to an adult entertainment establishment. The Orioles, with the second lowest payroll in the league, could use this period to bolster a pitching staff that had a collective 5.85 ERA last season, complement the soon-to-arrive prospects (see you soon Adley), and show the fan base who’s remained committed throughout the perils of rebuilding that the team is ready to dedicate the resources required to make the team a winner again.
(but seriously, Correa pls)
