Does Trey Mancini Have a Rookie of the Year Case?

Yesterday, our friends over at @BirdlandStats (check out their work on ESR here) tweeted out some interesting facts about Trey Mancini and past Rookie of the Year award winners:

Most recent rookies (qualified for BA title) w/ 15+ HRs, 50+ RBIs, & .300+ BA:

T. Mancini
A. Judge
C. Seager
J. Abreu
M. Trout
A. Pujols

— O's Stats & Facts (@BirdlandStats) July 20, 2017

I don’t know about you, but I’m not sure that I can say I quite realized how remarkable “Boom Boom” has been for a rookie this season.

Now, he of course will need to keep it up – to prove he can adjust to the adjustments that pitchers will make, to show that he can endure the dog days of summer, the full 162-game grind of an MLB season – to finish the year in such elite company.

Should he do that though, his case for the Rookie of the Year award is quite strong indeed:

The four* players (Seager, Trout, Pujols, Abreu) not still in their rookie season, won rookie of the year. https://t.co/9il57WUHbD

— O's Stats & Facts (@BirdlandStats) July 20, 2017

Let’s see how Trey’s numbers compare to how those four guys, all ROY winners – Corey Seager, Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Jose Abreu – in their respective rookie campaigns.

Seager (2016): .308/.365/.512, 137 wRC+, 26 HR, 7.5 fWAR

Trout (2012): .326/.399/.564, 167 wRC+, 30 HR, 10.3 fWAR (did you guys know that Mike Trout is really good? Mike trout is really good.)

Pujols (2001): .329/.403/.610, 159 wRC+, 37 HR, 7.2 fWAR

Abreu (2014): .317/.383/.581, 167 wRC+, 5.3 fWAR

And Mancini, through last night’s game:

.305/.351/.530, 131 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR

The low fWAR can be chalked up to the fact that, compared some of those other guys, Trey doesn’t do much with the glove. To be fair, he is also not playing his natural position, aside from the time Chris Davis spent on the disabled list.

Of course, it’s just Trey’s (and our) luck that he is doing all of this while being overshadowed by that Man Mountain playing in New York (of course!), the force of nature who just destroyed all comers at the Home Run Derby like they were toddlers with wiffle ball bats, Aaron Judge.

There may be a glimmer of hope though – Judge is just 4-for-29 since the All-Star Break, without an extra-base hit. His numbers are, of course, still insane, at .312/.434/.642, with 30 HR and 68 RBI. But Judge needs to do all of those things that we said about Mancini above, for the rest of the season as well. While his home run lead is likely insurmountable, should that average and OBP continue to plummet, Mancini may have a puncher’s chance.

Take out Judge, and Mancini would lead AL rookies in wOBA, wRC+ and slugging percentage, and rank third in fWAR.

Naturally, we can’t just “take out” Judge. He’s out ahead of the pack in the Rookie of the Year race by a good 10 lengths. The fact that he plays in New York pushes that lead out to 15.

Trey Mancini very likely won’t win the AL Rookie of the Year this season. That doesn’t mean we should overlook what he’s doing.