The MLB offseason kicked off yesterday, as it was the deadline for teams to pick up player options and extend qualifying offers (QO). The free agency period has now started, and teams are free to negotiate with available players and their agents.
In Baltimore, there were many decisions to be made, although most of them were no-brainers. The two easiest decisions for the O’s were to extend the QO to both Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander. While the O’s would be ecstatic if either accepted, clearly neither is happening.
The Orioles also had four option decisions to make. The most expensive were for Seranthony Dominguez and Ryan O’Hearn, both of whom are set to make $8M in 2025. As expected, the Orioles picked up both.
To me, those four moves were all obvious and correct, although I could see why some would disagree.
The next two moves were the bigger deals to me. First, they picked up Cionel Perez‘s option. He’s now set to make $2.2M in 2025, and while that’s not a lot for a reliever, the problem is that the Orioles need to upgrade their pen and there are only so many roster spots with which to do so. If they picked up Perez to trade him, that’s fine. That makes logical sense since he is a cheap asset out there. To his credit, Perez has been durable, appearing in 62 or more games for three straight seasons.  His WPA was solid, he gets a lot of ground balls, and he limits hard contact. Also, despite an elevated ERA, he had a very solid xERA and FIP. All of that is very good and certainly helps make the case for keeping him at that low number.
My issue with Perez is that he is a pitch-to-contact guy, with a below-average strikeout rate, very high BB rate, and he doesn’t miss bats or induce chases outside the zone. These are not usually the guys you want in high leverage situations and the Orioles need to add at least one high leverage reliever.
Now we move to the biggest shock of the day: declining to pick up Danny Coulombe‘s $4M option.
In today’s game, $4M is nothing. Coulombe misses bats, has an above average K rate, an excellent walk rate and does a respectable job against both righties and lefties. His Statcast data is also very solid.
So, why would they not pick him up? Well, he is 35 years old, missed three months with arm issues in 2024, and saw a decrease in his fastball velocity. Despite having good Statcast numbers overall, he did see a drop off in some categories, including a big drop in exit velocity, which jumped to 90.3 from 85.6 in 2023.
If I had to guess, the thought process went like this: the Orioles already know they are keeping Gregory Soto, and Keegan Akin is likely to be back, especially since he has an MiLB option remaining. So, it came down to Perez versus Coulombe as the 3rd lefty, and they likely trust Perez to both hold up better physically and perform better in 2025.
For me, I see Coulombe as one of the team’s best relievers, and unless there is something going on with him physically that we do not know about, this is a mistake. We all couldn’t wait to get him back last year and now he’s gone? This team needs to add very good relievers, not watch them walk away for free. Even if you have doubts, you are telling me you couldn’t pick up the option and trade him? There would be no takers for a very good reliever on a one-year deal for 4M? I just find that hard to believe.
Obviously, this wasn’t just a big decision day for the Orioles. Everyone around the league had to make these same decisions and there were some that potentially impact how the Orioles will approach the offseason.
Amongst the players who received a QO were Nick Pivetta, Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, Max Fried and Nick Martinez. This matters because if the Orioles sign any of those guys, they will lose a high draft pick. Now, should that matter? No, not really BUT if you can sign a similar pitcher and not lose a pick, why not just do that instead? Pitchers like Nathan Eovaldi, Yusei Kikuchi and Blake Snell were not QO eligible. Those pitchers could vault to the top of Mike Elias’ list, if they weren’t already. As of right now, the Orioles stand to have six picks in the top 100 and could add a seventh if Colton Cowser wins ROY. Could they trade one of those comp picks? Could they decide to lose one for a FA? Sure, it’s possible, but with the amount of talent the system has lost the last few years, Elias may view this draft as a way to build it back up.
Some players that didn’t exercise their own option or their team declined their option that could interest the O’s include Travis D’Arnaud, Colin Rea, Snell, Kyle Gibson, David Robertson, and Eovaldi.
Obviously, the market will also be flooded with non-tendered players in the coming weeks as well. The pool of players will be plentiful and for a team like the O’s, who have obvious and specific needs, this will be a good pool of players to choose from to fill every need they have.
