Grading the Orioles’ Very Busy Trade Deadline

Another major league trade deadline has come and gone, and now our attention turns squarely towards the postseason.

The Orioles were a little more active at the deadline than in recent years, making a flurry of moves before 6:00 on Tuesday. Despite that, a lot of Birdland feels as if the front office left something to be desired, and I agree… sort of. It’s complicated.

Let’s break down the deadline move-by-move, and I’ll hand out grades for each individual trade as well as how the front office fared as a whole.

Orioles trade OF Austin Hays for RP Seranthony Dominguez and OF Cristian Pache

This first move, which came on Friday, was a bit of a surprise. Mike Elias shipped outfielder Austin Hays, who’d been a stalwart of the major league ballclub since 2019, up the road to Philadelphia in exchange for reliever Seranthony Dominguez and another outfielder, Cristian Pache. Of all the deadline deals, this is probably the one that hurt the most. “Haysie” had stuck with Baltimore through the entire rebuild, so long that he’d been there when the O’s lost 100 games and when they turned the corner to win 100. It came as a bit of a shock to see him gone, since he hadn’t really been rumored to be on the trade block or even have a lot of interest from around the league. Nonetheless, he’s now a Phillie, and I certainly wish him the best of luck. He deserves it.

Even though it hurt, the deal made a good bit of sense for the Orioles. This team had a serious need for relief pitching, and Dominguez should help fill it. The numbers aren’t great in 2024 (he’s posted a 4.50 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP thus far), but the underlying metrics indicate that he should improve down the stretch. The flamethrower’s xERA is a solid 3.28, according to Statcast, and he’s in the 95th percentile for fastball velocity. He doesn’t really get hit hard, with his average exit velocity in the 91st percentile and his hard hit rate in the 90th. Dominguez has some nasty stuff, too, centered around a pretty impressive fastball. He’s had his fair share of struggles over the years, and his addition will certainly help an ailing Baltimore bullpen.

Seranthony Dominguez, Wicked 88mph Slider. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/M9Kg8lqNE7

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 31, 2024

Getting Pache alongside the reliever was a bit confusing. He plays excellent defense but struggles at the plate, and I don’t see much room for him in the major league clubhouse with Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad playing well. About the deal, a friend of mine texted me with something along the lines of, “Pache is pretty much a less good version of Cedric Mullins… and the Orioles already had him.” It’s important to have a guy with Ceddy’s skillset, but having two isn’t the most efficient use of limited roster spots. Pache is out of options, so we’ll see if the O’s try to pass him through waivers.

Grade: B-

Orioles trade three prospects to Tampa for SP Zach Eflin

This was by far my favorite move that Elias made this week.

The timing was perfect: Birdland seemed a bit down after seeing Hays depart, but the vibe around the fan base certainly changed with the addition of Eflin, who didn’t cost too much. To get 1.5 years of a quality starting pitcher, the front office only had to give up Mac Horvath (3B, A+), Jackson Baumeister (RHP, A+), and Matthew Etzel (OF, AA). Horvath, a second round pick out of the University of North Carolina in last year’s draft, was Baltimore’s highest rated prospect in the deal, clocking in at #10 in the organization. Baumeister was the only other prospect in the the Orioles’ top 30, rated #17. None of the prospects given up cracked MLB Pipeline’s top 100.

Eflin had been going through a down year in 2024 following an impressive showing in 2023 on a Rays team that won 99 games. So far, he’s posted 4.11 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 20 starts. The WHIP is encouraging – borderline elite – but it doesn’t really line up with Eflin’s earned run average. But that’s the beauty of baseball: ERA doesn’t tell the whole story. A quick glance at Baseball Savant tells you that he’s been much better than his raw metrics suggest; Eflin’s xERA is a very good 3.47, and he has an xWOBA under .300. Oriole hitters praised the former Ray, citing how hard it is to hit his stuff. Eflin doesn’t walk guys (his BB% is in the 99th percentile), which is something this rotation desperately needs. Batters do chase his stuff (88th percentile chase rate), which goes a long way toward getting outs.

Zach Eflin's 3Ks in the 2nd. pic.twitter.com/BOX1YZw1kv

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 29, 2024

Eflin had borderline-ace numbers in 2023, and getting him at that price point is excellent work by Elias. He’ll likely slot in as Baltimore’s third starter, but he’s good enough to be a #2 in other rotations. The best part? Eflin’s under contract through next season, and the club taking on his $18M salary in 2025 exemplifies David Rubenstein’s willingness to pay up for good players.

Grade: A

Orioles send Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers to Miami for Trevor Rogers

Aaand here’s where the wheels fell off.

To say I hate this deal would be a very, very big understatement. Before even looking at what the Orioles got, let’s just look at the magnitude of what they gave up.

Connor Norby was the #6 prospect in Baltimore’s system before getting shipped off to the Marlins, and he’d been playing okay in limited action in the major leagues. The versatile infielder had posted an underwhelming .594 OPS in 6 games at the big league level, hitting just .188, but he did have two home runs while contributing solid defense. Obviously, we’re looking at a very small sample size here, but it’s not as if he came in and stunk up the joint. I was personally a huge fan of his, so it’s tough to see him go, but he wasn’t in a place where he’d be getting the consistent playing time needed to develop. I expect him to experience a good bit of success in Miami.

Stowers, on the other hand, had bounced between Baltimore and Norfolk a good bit in 2024 after his 2023 was derailed by injury. At the big league level, “Sunshine” was batting .306 with a .797 OPS and one home run. Whenever the front office had tabbed him to fill a need with the major league team, he delivered with impressive offense and solid defense. Yet, the Orioles’ outfield is exceptionally crowded with Anthony Santander and Mullins being mainstays and Cowser and Kjerstad looking to lock down the unit in the future. Stowers was very good in 2022 and was experiencing more success in ’24, a trend he’ll look to continue with the Marlins.

These are two guys who I rate very highly. The Orioles should’ve gotten something great for them, right? Surely a solid pitcher or reliever at least!

No?

Wait, all we got was 4.53-ERA Trevor Rogers?

Okay, well the front office must really see something in him. His advanced stats must be pretty promising, right?

You’re telling me that his xERA is worse at 4.84? And that he’s below average in nearly every Statcast metric?!

Is this a joke?

Unfortunately, it’s not. Rogers is now a part of Birdland, and it looks like he’ll become this team’s #5 starter, bumping Albert Suarez to the bullpen. Now, I don’t mind Rogers as a player, but what bothers me about this deal is (1) what Elias had to give up to get him and (2) that the team decided to forgo the opportunity to bring in an ace and put themselves in position to win a ring in 2024.

Maybe the front office does see something in Rogers, but I’m having trouble discerning what it is. He had a good rookie year in 2022 but has been below-average since. Management clearly views him as a long-term project, as he isn’t a free agent until 2027, which is fine, but the Orioles need someone who can help them win now. And, unfortunately, Rogers doesn’t fit the bill.

Grade: D

Orioles add Eloy Jimenez

In the final hour, Elias and crew made a surprise move, sending a low-level prospect to the White Sox in the form of pitcher Trey McGough, who was at the AAA level when the trade occurred. It was a pretty well-known fact that the Orioles were looking for another bat, particularly in the outfield, but Jimenez wasn’t exactly a hot commodity in the lead up to the deadline.

In Chicago this season, Jimenez was batting .240 with a .642 OPS, both of which are far below his career averages. He adds solid defense to the roster, and his acquisition all but guarantees that Pache will be optioned to Norfolk. Maybe the Orioles think they can get him back to the form he’s showcased over the past couple of years, but this move is a little puzzling to me.

Still, Jimenez is a better baseball player than McGough is now or in the future. That makes the deal okay in my book, but I don’t really know what the former adds to this team.

Grade: B-

Orioles bolster rotation with Gregory Soto

In a deal that came in the final minute or two, Elias brought in yet another Phillies reliever in Gregory Soto. The Orioles, who might as well be called “Philadelphia South” at this point, have three members of their 2023 bullpen on the roster: Kimbrel, Dominguez, and now Soto.

This deal adds some much-needed bullpen depth to a position group that surely needs it. Soto has posted a 4.08 ERA so far, and he’s only a couple of years removed from back-to-back All Star campaigns. To bring him to Baltimore, the front office only had to sacrifice minor league pitcher Seth Johnson, which seems like pretty fair compensation.

Soto hasn’t been the best in 2024, but he certainly hasn’t been horrible. If he’s able to be a reliable arm out of the bullpen, I’ll consider this trade a win for Baltimore. I’m concerned about his WHIP (over 1.5), but maybe Elias sees something in him that the coaching staff can unlock. He throws gas, with his fastball velocity in the 96th percentile this year, and forces a lot of ground balls and whiffs. If the Orioles are able to take advantage of the raw power Soto brings, they’ll be much better off.

Grade: B

Orioles send cash to Cincy, get two players

Elias apparently wasn’t satisfied with the outfield in the waning moments of the 5:00 hour, sending cash considerations to Cincinnati for outfielder Austin Slater and infielder Livan Soto. Neither of these guys will make much of an impact, if any, on the major league squad in 2024, so it’s hard to grade the move. They’ll likely spend the remainder of the season in Norfolk, serving as emergency injury insurance if something goes wrong.

Still, whenever you can acquire players for cash, it’s a win in my book. Adding a couple of guys to fill holes in Norfolk was necessary, so long as they don’t serve as roadblocks for up-and-coming prospects.

Grade: B+

Overall Grade

I, like many Orioles fans, was very disappointed with how the trade deadline went, especially after the Tyler Rogers trade. However, what’s more upsetting is what the club didn’t do. Elias has had three Orioles teams in playoff contention at the trade deadline and has underwhelmed each year. 2022 and ’23 were pretty much complete busts; Brett Phillips was DFA’d shortly after being acquired and Jack Flaherty struggled to a 6+ ERA with the team before being relegated to the bullpen.

Sure, this deadline wasn’t all bad, but I would’ve liked to see a clearer message from the front office that, Yeah, we’re going for it. Re-signing Corbin Burnes still seems like a pipe dream, and as such, the Orioles really should’ve acquired an ace to help propel them in 2024 and beyond. Will the lack of a splash move cost the Orioles a World Series this year? Only time will tell, but this team did get a bit better after today. The question is, did they improve enough?

Overall Grade: C