How Can the Orioles Improve Against Left-Handed Pitching?

In Roch Kubatko’s daily piece a week ago on MASNsports.com, he shared a quote from Brandon Hyde that caught my eye regarding the Orioles performance against LH starters:

We have to do a better job against left-handed starters, honestly. I know our record was good against them last year, but the way our lineup is constructed, we’re going to see everybody’s best left-handed starters, their best left-handed relievers. We haven’t swung the bat the best against them this year. We’ve got to do a better job of it going forward.

While they have improved a bit in that time (in no small part thanks to hot stretches from Jordan Westburg and Colton Cowser), here is where the Orioles splits sit now, as of April 17, 2024.

vs LHP: .224/.287/.365 with a 90 wRC+ (.268 BABIP)

vs RHP: .273/.324/.492 with a 136 wRC+ (.297 BABIP)

In terms of performance against RHP, I have some exciting news: the Orioles are turning into the best lineup in baseball against RHP. This might be a perennial 130 wRC+, lineup against RHP; dare I say it, perhaps even better than the Braves (123 wRC+ against in 2023).

While these stats are sure to ebb and flow with the tide of a long major league baseball season, Cowser (1.356), Ryan O’Hearn (1.113), Gunnar Henderson (1.062), and Westburg (1.055) all are lineup regulars who have OPS marks eclipsing 1.000 against RHP with Cedric Mullins (.966) just behind.

Against LHP, however, only a few Orioles hitters have even respectable performances: Adley Rutschman (.922), Jorge Mateo (.908), Ryan Mountcastle (.899) and Westburg (.795).

If the Orioles can find a way to be an average-slightly above average (100-105 wRC+) lineup against LHP, all of baseball will be put on notice.

So how do we get there?

The other day, I took a look at current MLB rotations and found that 109/150 (72.6%) of current SPs are right-handed. This number is slightly more favorable among opposing AL East (80%) teams. Unfortunately, the best two lefty pitchers (Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodon, even if they have looked a bit shaky this April), pitch for the Orioles’ most imposing divisional rival, the Yankees.

If there’s one thing the Orioles believe in, it’s that RHB are better equipped to face LHP and LHB are better equipped to face RHP. This is not to say that the Orioles will never let a lefty face a lefty. The Orioles have three budding stars (Henderson, Jackson Holliday & Cowser) who all hit left handed; the former two (at least) will continue to start against most LHP (with days off worked in when a LHP is on the mound). I’d guess the Orioles are hoping exposure to quality major league LHP over the course of the next couple years will lead to more competitive ABs by these budding stars. However, it does put more pressure on the right-handed bats to really dominate lefties. The Orioles are wanting for a right-handed bat who gets 400-ish PA and crushes LHP.

I think a Mateo/Mullins platoon is wise and maximizes the value of both players. The Mountcastle/O’Hearn pseudo-platoon at 1B also helps minimize LHB exposure to LHP.

I see the biggest room for improvement in the roster spots currently held by Ramon Urias and Austin Hays. I’d imagine I’m not alone among Orioles fans, as the status of these two players has been a hot topic for discussion.

The issue is that just doing straight prospect swaps (say Connor Norby and Coby Mayo for Urias and Hays) would mean that Norby and Mayo are sitting at least 70% of the time.

I don’t actually have an issue with that for Norby (who I think is a high-floor, low ceiling, hit-first prospect) but I am opposed to that path with Mayo, who could develop into a legitimate star.

The most sensible immediate path, in my estimation, is to DFA Urias in favor of Norby. Again, I think Orioles fans over-estimate Norby’s trade value, and for a win-now team, I’m fine with giving him 200-ish PA against LHP. Perhaps with a strong performance, he could push for an increased role.

Give Hays a couple months to get right in a reduced role where he faces mostly LHP. If he continues to struggle or doesn’t take well to a part-time role, I think the Orioles have enough depth to either release him or trade him for a minimal return.

At this point, there would be two options for Hays’ roster spot. One would be to bring up Mayo and ease him into a big-league role. However, as long as Mountcastle and Anthony Santander are playing nearly every day, it’ll be difficult to give him the number of ABs needed to continue his development. I’d rather keep Mayo in Norfolk for most of the year unless he is able to drastically reduce his K rate (currently at 25 Ks in 16 games) or one of Mountcastle/Santander get hurt.

My preferred option would be to acquire a right-handed bat, probably a corner OF who crushes LHP. I’d want a player who is used to part-time play and doesn’t expect a full-time role. Think Adam Duvall. Looking at early-season production from players in this mold on mediocre teams, here are a few names: David Fry (CLE), Mark Canha (DET) or Matt Vierling (DET).

Having said this, and perusing the market a bit for who might fit this description, the Orioles might just decide to hang on to Hays to fill this role (Canha is probably the best option otherwise).

With the addition of Norby, let’s look at a typical lineup against a LHP.

Henderson (SS)

Rutschman (C)

Mountcastle (1B)

Santander (RF)

Westburg (3B)

Norby (DH)

Cowser (LF)

Mateo (CF)

Holliday (2B)

If you want, you can tweak that lineup for Hays/a righty part-time bat like Canha to spell Henderson, Holliday, or Cowser against a tough lefty. That would bring the RHB:LHP ratio to 7:2, which is pretty solid.

In conclusion, I’d like to see Norby replace Urias, even if he only plays against LHP. The Orioles have plenty of other trade pieces and I’m less worried about stunting Norby’s development than I would be with Mayo. I think at this point, Mayo should stay in AAA unless there is an injury to Mountcastle/Santander. Mayo will get full-time MLB ABs in 2025.

The Orioles also should be keeping a keen eye out for a RHB in the mold of Duvall. Alternately, Hays could get back on track (though he’s never really been a lefty crusher).

Finally, internal improvement from Henderson, Cowser and Holliday (even if they can just be average against LHP) would be important in balancing out the Orioles performance against left handed starters.

Regardless, expect the Orioles to be one of the foremost offensive powers in the league for the foreseeable future.