The 2023 Orioles start their run at a potential 4th world championship this Saturday by hosting the Texas Rangers, who easily defeated the Tampa Bay Rays in the Wild Card round. The good news is that the Rangers threw their two best starters in those games, so they won’t be able to pitch either against the O’s twice, and neither can start game 1 (unless they want Jordan Montgomery going on three days’ rest, which I doubt).
Looking around social media land, it seemed that most fans wanted to play Texas more than Tampa. Tampa was familiar, has an excellent bullpen, and Randy Arozarena kills us and seems to always come up big in the playoffs. That being said, I also recall most fans wanting to play the Royals in 2014 and that didn’t work out too well.
An early injury sidelined Jacob deGrom for 2023, and deadline acquisition Max Scherzer went down for the end of the season (although he had a recent bullpen session and has a chance to come back for the playoffs, the ALDS is viewed as a long shot at the moment). Those injuries really took away a starting pitching advantage Texas had on most of the league. That said, their starters were still top 10 in ERA despite playing in a very hitter-friendly ballpark.
The acquisition of Montgomery has likely saved their season in terms of being able to not only make the playoffs but also be a threat in them. He has a sub-3 ERA for Texas and while he’s not a big strikeout pitcher, he limits the walks and homers, so he tends to not beat himself. Montgomery has had good success vs the current O’s players, at least the ones he has faced. Ryan Mountcastle and Anthony Santander, who each have at least 15 at bats vs Montgomery, have had decent success. Jorge Mateo has an 844 OPS but in only nine at bats. Other than that, the O’s have greatly struggled vs him in the other ~75ish at bats. He has yet to face Gunnar Henderson or Adley Rutschman.
The one (and basically only) free agent starter I wanted in the offseason was Nathan Eovaldi. He went to Texas and despite missing some time with an elbow injury, has had a big year for them. He has been very good when healthy. Like Montgomery, he’s done well against the current O’s. In 142 at bats, only Adam Frazier has a homer off him, and the team’s combined OPS is 642. No one has really done well against him although Rutschman and Henderson have only faced him in four at bats combined.
Dane Dunning has the second most IP of any Rangers starter (counting only Rangers innings) but he has struggled since June. In his 93 IP since July 1, Dunning has an ERA of 4.55, although he gave up nine runs in one of those starts. His peripherals are good but not great. Here we go again though: in 60 at bats, O’s hitters have a combined OPS of .552.
Andrew Heaney had 28 starts for the Rangers this year but they moved him to the pen once Eovaldi returned. The bullpen is where the Rangers struggle, which is part of the reason they moved Heaney. They are 24th in bullpen ERA, 22nd in Ks, 29th in HR rate and 22nd in FIP. They do have the 6th best BB rate. They traded for Aroldis Chapman back in July, and his ERA is a pedestrian 3.72 for Texas. Will Smith leads the team in saves but he has an ERA well over 4 (although his FIP is a full run better). Martin Perez is also pitching out of the pen now and he has been more successful there than he was in the rotation.
This is the area of the team you hope the Orioles can expose. While there are some good arms out there and some pitchers that have had success, overall the bullpen is Texas’ weakness. You hope that in high leverage situations, the Orioles are able to take advantage.
On the other hand, the Rangers offense is very good and I personally worry about the O’s bullpen facing that offense in high leverage situations. They are 3rd in the majors in runs scored, 4th in homers, 5th in BB rate, 3rd in wOBA, 3rd in WAR, 3rd in OPS and 3rd in OBP.
The offense is led by Corey Seager, who put up an OPS over 1.000 this year. They have seven other players with at least 340 PA that have an OPS of .750 or higher and that doesn’t include elite prospect Evan Carter (ranked in the same area as guys like Heston Kjerstad and Colton Cowser), who has an OPS over 1.050 in just 75 at bats and hit the cover off the ball in the wild card round.
The Rangers are also a very good defensive team: 6th in team OAA and 6th in team DRS.
With all that being said, as an O’s fan, what should we be worried about? First and foremost, you worry about their offense. They just put up 11 runs in two games in Tampa and they have been excellent all year.
From a pitching standpoint, you worry that they will be able to easily shut down Gunnar because they likely throw a lefty starter in game 2 and have several lefties in the pen. We know Gunnar has struggled against lefties all year. There are enough righties that he can expose but he will face lefties in a lot of high leverage situations and this is one of my main concerns.
As a team, the O’s are 10th in the league in OPS against lefties (Texas is 4th). And we also know that Brandon Hyde likes to go away from lefties when facing lefty pitching. That means we could see Ryan O’Hearn and Cedric Mullins sit in game 2 and/or see them pinch hit for (more of an issue with O’Hearn) and that takes the bat away from two of the team’s better hitters. We could see more James McCann, Jorge Mateo and Aaron Hicks than we were thinking we would. Maybe that ends up working, but if it doesn’t, it means you went down without your best players on the field. That would be tough to stomach.
Can the Orioles pitching hold up against the Texas offense, especially in high leverage situations? Can the Birds’ offense get into the Texas bullpen to expose that part of the team? That will likely determine the series.
I do feel it’s very important for the O’s to get the first game. I don’t worry about this team doubting themselves, but I do worry about a young team being too amped up and maybe starting to press if they get down early.
Texas didn’t end the year well but that doesn’t matter now. It’s a new season and they just rolled Tampa. Do not take this team lightly.
It’s been seven years since we had playoff baseball in Baltimore, and the MLB team has been a joke for most of that time.
The fan base is ready. It’s time to get loud and go crazy and let’s hope this team can create some more “Delmon Young” moments.
