There is an old adage in MLB that you need to give teams and players until Memorial Day until you can really start to judge them. With that in mind, here are some (much needed) day off musings about the O’s, what we have seen and what we should/could see going forward.
1. I think all fans are happy with the pitching and overall competitiveness of the team. They have always played hard under Brandon Hyde and it’s not their fault that ownership and the front office have sabotaged the team’s chances of winning. Through all of it, they have played hard and had a good attitude.
This year, between the left field wall being moved back and hitting down around the league at levels we haven’t seen in a long time, the pitching is doing fairly well and keeping the team in games.
They still have one of the worst records in the sport and definitely have a lot of holes on the roster, but it is a better product to watch right now.
2. Speaking of a better product, it sure would have been nice to see the Orioles attempt to put a better product on the field for 2022. The left side of the infield is terrible (yes I know they want Jorge Mateo to be the everyday SS but he’s not that. The arm and speed are mesmerizing but that’s it).
With just a few other pitchers and a better shortstop and third baseman and this would be an intriguing team this year.
3. With respect to #2, this is why I wanted Adley Rutschman up by last July. Had the Orioles brought him and let him get his feet wet and put a better product on the field in 2022, they could be looking at a .500-ish record in 2022 with contention in 2023 a very real possibility.
As it stands, we are still two or mears years out from that.
4. Speaking of the need for another SS, I would still look at Paul DeJong, who is a player I clamored for in the offseason. Obviously, that looks like it would have been a poor decision thus far, since he has a sub-.500 OPS and has been sent to the minors. That said, his game and the last few years preceding 2022 look very similar to J.J. Hardy’s before coming to the Birds (JJ had OPS+ of 75 and 96 and DeJong is 87 and 85).
In fact, if the Os traded for DeJong, they would be acquiring him at the same age Hardy was when they got him. DeJong actually may play a better defensive shortstop than Hardy and his offensive upside is higher. Maybe, at age 28, DeJong is done as an effective player. That’s definitely possible. Or maybe he needs a change of scenery, like JJ did, and things will get better. He has $6M remaining on this year’s contract and is guaranteed $9M in 2023. After that, he has team-friendly options.
The Cardinals have obviously moved on from him and would be very happy to save any money. If you could get them to pick up half or more of his deal and send them a few non prospects (again, a la the Hardy deal), I think that’s a trade you make and see what DeJong has left. This is a guy who, despite having a sub-.500 OPS, still has a positive WAR because his defense is that good. He has been a high WAR guy in the past and seeing as we have no one who is a definitive major-league shortstop, this is the type of low-risk move I would like to see from Mike Elias.
5. It is time to get Grayson Rodriguez up. He is rarely being challenged in the minors and there is very little to no reason to continue to use up his arm to pitch in the minor leagues. Pitchers only have so many pitches in their arms, so no need to waste them against inferior competition once they are ready – and GRod is ready.
6. In that same thought process, why is DL Hall still in the minors? I know he isn’t lighting up AAA in terms of run prevention yet but if all he is going to be is a 3-4 inning pitcher in 2022, let him do it up here. Let him learn at this level, under the better coaches and training staff. Elias has basically said he will be up this year and perhaps it’s not a huge deal if its tomorrow or a month from now, but I would like to see him get as much time in the majors in 2022 as possible, so that he is that much readier in 2023.
7. The minor leaguers are off to uneven starts. While Gunnar Henderson looks like a top-25 prospect, players like Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg have struggled and are striking out at surprisingly (especially for Cowser) high rates. Kyle Stowers, after a long slump, is mashing again and the strikeout numbers are pretty good. He is certainly on the doorstep of the majors at this point. Coby Mayo has seen his OBP dip way down, although his tremendous power is there. He has been hitting better the last week, so hopefully we will see the OBP go back up but it’s something to monitor.
On the pitching side of things, it’s been pretty bad. Jean Pinto doesn’t look great, Kyle Bradish has been very uneven in the majors, after a nice start in AAA, Drew Rom has been hurt (though he did start last night) and just overall, you aren’t seeing many guys really assert themselves. The organization got a big jolt last night with Carter Baumler making his pro debut. He pitched well and he is definitely someone to watch. In terms of pure upside, he’s probably the third best pitching prospect in the system right now.
8. How these young guys continue to perform will really help shape the trade deadline for the Orioles. I am still of the opinion that Cedric Mullins should be traded and the Marlins remain a possibility. They have the young arms this team needs. Trey Mancini may not bring back a ton in trade but there is also very little reason to keep him the rest of 2022 and you should not be paying him $10M in 2023. How many of the bullpen pitchers continue to pitch well could also impact the trade deadline.
Elias has proven he will move BP arms, so anyone out there could go although I think they hold onto Felix Bautista.
9. The MLB draft is less than two months away and the industry consensus is that Druw Jones is the #1 player. There is zero reason not to go BPA for this pick. The Orioles have the second-highest draft pool in history, so spending later won’t be an issue even if they go slot with the first pick (which by the way, they won’t have to. There’s zero chance Jones turns down $8-8.5M and elects to go to college because he didn’t get slot value of 8.8M). Also, very few players taken after the first round of the draft ever make an impact in the majors, so why take a lesser player with the first pick in hopes of finding one of the few that slips through the cracks and becomes a successful major leaguer? That just doesn’t make sense and you can pay as much as you want anyway. MLB doesn’t stop you from spending over slot across the board. They just penalize you for it and if you are the Orioles and have spent no money the last few years, why would you care? Just buy whatever you want. Keep going BPA in what could be your last draft to be loaded with high picks for a while, at least amongst the top 3-5 picks. Swing for the fences and get the generational talent in Jones and don’t settle for some college kid that you have over-drafted. Don’t hit a double, go for the grand slam.
The organization needs more top-flight, elite talent.
10. We should be seeing Heston Kjerstad soon. I know a lot of people likely want to write him off but I believe in the talent and still feel he has a ton of upside. That said, he needs to get out there, stay healthy and go perform. The O’s took him with the second pick for a reason and while he may not have a consensus #2 guy, he was a consensus top 10 player and some think he would have been higher if the college season was played in its entirety prior to the draft.
Overall, I think the team is in a pretty good place. I think it’s on Elias to make the right moves in July and then properly add to the team in the offseason and start to get this team to a level of true competitiveness. The minor leaguers have always been at the forefront of ajy potential resurgence and now we are seeing those guys either up here or about to be here.
Put the right players around them and let’s start winning.
