This is part two of Nick’s MLB preview. To see part one – American League, click here.
National League East
1. Washington Nationals 96-66
2. Miami Marlins 83-79
3. New York Mets 80-82
4. Atlanta Braves 76-84
5. Philadelphia Phillies 64-98
The Nationals are the best team in the majors, and might be playing in the least competitive division. Tanner Roark would likely be a #3 or better starter on most teams but he’s merely a bullpen option on this rotation of aces. Even if the offense is average, they will win a lot of games because of Max Scherzer, Steven Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman, Gio Gonzalez, and Doug Fister. If Bryce Harper actually breaks out, this team will win 100 games.
The Marlins are going to improve, and might actually have a shot at a playoff spot if they can stay in the race until Jose Fernandez returns in June/July. The offense should improve with the addition of Dee Gordon and his speed, as well as another year of overall improvement from the young outfield trio of Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, and Christian Yelich.
New York has a dearth of young pitchers, and losing Zack Wheeler for the year hurts. However, it wasn’t long ago that Matt Harvey was considered a top-five pitcher in the game, and he’s healthy again finally. Still, this offense will struggle. Speaking of struggling offenses, the Braves might be the worst offense in baseball in 2015, as outside of Freddie Freeman, the best hitter is…what’s left of Nick Markakis? Andrelton Simmons? The starting pitching should be good and Craig Kimbrel is insane, but he won’t get a chance to close out games if Atlanta can’t score.
The Phillies are the worst team in baseball. If they do end up dealing Cole Hamels, I’d drop them to 100 losses. On the bright side, even their management seems to finally realize that Ryan Howard is terrible.
National League Central
1. Pittsburgh Pirates 89-73
2. Chicago Cubs 86-76 (Wild Card)
3. St Louis Cardinals 84-78
4. Milwaukee Brewers 81-81
5. Cincinnati Reds 72-90
The Pirates are going to be a very good offense in 2015. Andrew McCutchen is a star, and Starling Marte isn’t too far behind him after consecutive good years. Gregory Polanco will make this the best outfield in baseball if he steps up and hits over .250. That appears likely, since he displayed great hitting ability in every level of the minors. If Pedro Alvarez remembers how to hit again, he could lead the league in homers, and Neil Walker might be the most underrated second baseman in the game.
I like both Chicago teams this year, if you couldn’t tell. The Cubs have a plethora of young stars, including Anthony Rizzo, Jorge Soler, Kris Bryant, and Javier Baez, although Baez needs to learn how to make contact or he’s going to spend some time in Triple-A this season. What makes the Cubs true contenders though is how good the top two guys in the rotation are. Jon Lester was a revelation last season, and Jake Arrieta seems to have finally figured it out. Man, it’d be nice if the Orioles still had him. It’s a good time to be a Cubs fan.
The Cardinals are still a very good team, and should finish over .500, but I think they miss the playoffs mainly because of concerns with Adam Wainwright. Wainwright’s struggles in the second half of 2014, as well as his increasing age and injury troubles make him a risky bet to be a true ace in 2015. Michael Wacha needs to take another step forward for this to be a playoff team. The offense should still be good however, and Jason Heyward may be primed for a career year.
Milwaukee fans should be encouraged by the positive news surrounding Ryan Braun and his wrist, but there still isn’t enough pitching for this team to make a postseason push. Mike Fiers is going to surprise a lot of people in that rotation though. As for Cincinnati, if Jay Bruce and Joey Votto rebound, they may be alright offensively, but Bruce has been trending downward for years, and Votto himself acknowledged earlier this spring that he was coming along slower than expected. Billy Hamilton’s defense and his ability to steal 60+ bases are great, but his sub .300 OBP and caught stealing percentage is not. Look for Johnny Cueto to be moved by midseason if the Reds are out of it.
National League West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers 93-69
2. San Francisco Giants 85-77 (Wild Card)
3. San Diego Padres 84-78
4. Colorado Rockies 71-91
5. Arizona Diamondbacks 66-96
Los Angeles is probably the second-best team in baseball, and with a rotation headed by Clayton Kershaw, it’s not hard to understand why. If Kris Bryant wasn’t the animal he is in Chicago, Joc Pederson would be my pick for rookie of the year, as I think he is in for a big season. If Yasiel Puig takes the next step, this could be a banner year in LA.
The reigning World Champion Giants should be good again, but the loss of Pablo Sandoval hurts the offense, and fatigue for staff ace Madison Bumgarner is a realistic concern after he single-handedly dominated last October. The Padres just miss the playoffs for me, although I think they will have a good year. Matt Kemp had a great second half to 2014, and Justin Upton’s power plays everywhere, even in Petco. James Shields and Tyson Ross anchor what should be an above-average pitching staff as well, although the outfield defense may struggle.
If we knew today that Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez would be healthy for 150 games this year, Colorado could safely be expected to win at least 10 more games. However, because they can never seem to do so, and because the pitching staff projects to be one of the worst in baseball, it’s hard to project too much for them. That being said, Nolan Arenado is in for a huge year, and may end up being regarded as one of the best third baseman in baseball a year from now.
Arizona is in for a rough year, but at least fans can enjoy the brilliance of Paul Goldschmidt, who may be the most complete first baseman in baseball. Look for speedy outfielder AJ Pollock to have a good year as well, after dealing with injuries last season.
