Nick Markakis won’t be back for the Orioles in 2015. Thankfully, Markakis’ offensive production is extremely replaceable. He doesn’t have much power (14 HRs, .386 SLG percentage in 2014), and is below average on the basepaths (four SB, -2.7 baserunning runs above average).
The most glaring issue facing manager Buck Showalter, though, is replacing Nick’s .342 OBP atop the order.
So who will replace Nick at the top of the Birds’ lineup?
One option is Alejandro De Aza. De Aza owned a .314 OBP last season, which pales in comparison to Markakis’; however, his wOBA (weighted On Base Average) was .310 versus the .325 of Markakis, a much smaller margin. Plus, De Aza had a whopping 145 wRC+ (league average is 100) in September after he came over to the Orioles.
However, there are reasons to believe that this was a fluke. For one, his BABIP (batting average on balls in play; league average is ~.300) in September was a laughably huge .350, which would be impossible to maintain. If you want a reason why, just see that his BABIP in March and April was .191, and for the season was .317, meaning it all evened out for the most part.
Also, his ISO (Isolated Power, league average is around .140) was extremely poor in July and August, as he put up a .092 and .091 in those two months. As we remember, after coming to the O’s, he mashed, racking up a .244 ISO, which is also completely unmaintainable for a hitter of his ability. For example, sustaining that for a full season would place him among the ranks of Jose Abreu, David Ortiz, and Victor Martinez.
The final reason to dismiss De Aza – though not necessarily as the leadoff man – is that he is not the baserunner people believe him to be. Sure, he stole 17 bases in 2014, 20 in 2013, and 26 in 2012, but his baserunning runs above average in 2014 was even worse than Markakis, at a mere -3.4.
The next option that has been much talked about in Birdland is David Lough, who quietly logged a vicious .403 wOBA in the second half. His wRC+ went from 63 in the first half, to 161 in the second. How did he do it?
To start, he slashed his strikeout rate from a little over 20% to just under 10%, meaning he had more chances to put the ball in play and for it to potentially find holes, which is reflected in his wicked uptick in BABIP: it jumped from .239 in the first half to .360 in the second. Obviously, those are two extremes and cannot be expected to be maintained. However, if his 2015 season meets somewhere in the middle, he would have a solid season that I would certainly be pleased with.
In that case, he’d end up with roughly a .330 OBP, a wRC+ in the range of 110, and a wOBA around .330 – all very respectable numbers, but not necessarily top notch for a leadoff bat.
I think the dark horse for the leadoff spot in the lineup is newly acquired Travis Snider. His 9.5% walk rate and .338 OBP best compare with Nick Markakis, and his wOBA of .343 is actually better than Markakis’ was last year. Add in the fact that he has more power (.174 ISO vs. .111 ISO; .438 SLG vs. .386 SLG) and Snider is primed to have a better season than Markakis did in 2014.
Now, perhaps the fact that Snider has more power will push him out of the leadoff spot rather than into it, but I believe that he has a legitimate chance and is the guy I would place there right now. Not convinced?
According to Steamer, Snider projects to be 15 percent better than Markakis in 2015 – Snider with a 116 wRC+ versus Markakis’ 101 wRC+. Plus, Snider’s wOBA is (again) projected to be 20 points higher than Markakis’ number.
If all of that doesn’t convince you, then I suppose I should stop trying. However, I firmly believe – and I hope you do too – that Travis Snider will be better than Nick Markakis this season and beyond.
Does this mean he fits in the leadoff spot? Not for certain. It would certainly be new for him; he has only hit first in the lineup in 28 games in his entire career, logging a poor .230 batting average.
However, my personal vote goes to Travis Snider for the leadoff spot in the Orioles Lineup come Opening Day.
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