Who is the real Chris Davis? That will be the multi-million dollar question that will need to be answered – at the latest – sometime next winter when he enters free agency.
Is he the guy who in 673 at bats hit .286 with 53 HR and 138 RBI and finished 3rd in MVP votes in 2013? He could be.
Or, is he the guy who in 525 at bats finished with a stat line of .196/26/72 in 2014? He could be.
Is the 2013 version of Chris Davis really that good? Probably not. Is the 2014 version of Chris Davis really that bad? Probably not.
If you choose to view those two consecutive anomaly seasons on the surface and try to make sense of it you will be left scratching your head. If you dig a little deeper and make some reasonable assumptions you will see that the answer most likely lies somewhere in the middle.
2013 was the first time in his career that Davis received regular at bats and had a clearly defined role over the course of a full season. Prior to that, he was in a constant competition for playtime or in a platoon situation at first base. In Texas he had to compete with Justin Smoak and when he initially came to Baltimore it was Mark Reynolds.
A legitimate case can be made that being able to show up at the park every day and have a clear understanding of his role and what was expected of him had a positive impact on his performance. Maybe that level of comfort and a set routine was all he needed to take his game to the next level.
Perhaps eliminating the distractions of figuring out where and if he was playing, which glove he would be using that day, whether he would be taking ground balls or shagging fly balls prior to the game, etc. increased his focus.
Maybe a little extra focus was all he needed to reach his full potential. With his underlying ADD issues out in the open and having tested positive for Adderall twice, the focus issue could certainly have some merit.
Does that explain the level of success he had in 2013? It is definitely worth considering.
In 2014 the cat was out of the bag. Davis was now one of the most feared hitters in baseball. He was the type of hitter that could take a perfect pitcher’s pitch and put in the seats to all fields. Davis now garnered the full attention of opposing teams. Teams pitched him more carefully. Opponents put every at bat under a microscope in an effort to chart his tendencies and pinpoint any potential holes in his swing. Once his weaknesses were exposed they were quickly exploited by every team in the league.
Davis began to see fewer and fewer hittable pitches. When he did get a pitch he could drive, a lot of those balls were driven directly into the exaggerated shift that he faced every time he stepped to the plate. You actually began to see the cumulative effect of the extra attention and respect he was being given by opposing teams in the latter part of the 2013 season.
As the 2014 season went on, things obviously went from a situation where Davis was up against the opposing pitchers to a situation where he was up against not only the guy on the mound, but against himself. At times he had the demeanor of a man defeated before he even stepped into the box.
Did the league figure him out? Did his ADD get the best of him? It is definitely worth considering.
In my opinion, the adjustments that teams have made in regards to how they approach Davis will make it very difficult for him to ever put up numbers similar to his 2013 stat line.
However, when the 2015 season starts the 2013 & 2014 seasons will be irrelevant. Davis will come in with a clean slate and far less expectations then he had entering 2014. He should be refreshed mentally and finally out of his own head. The Adderall exemption won’t hurt either. Combine that with the adjustments I believe he will make to better handle the approach teams are taking against him and I expect an uptick in his numbers.
If you view both 2013 & 2014 as the anomalies that I feel they are, I think the Orioles will get something more in line with his career numbers. His career stat line based on a 162 game average is 253/35/97 and that is around where I feel he will end up.
In my opinion, that is the real Chris Davis is and I will take it all day.
2 Responses
Great read man. I totally agree with your projection for 2015 and I too will take that. Baltimore has become such and all or nothing town. If the O’s were in the running to sign a guy with your 2015 projectednumber, say 6,7 years ago the people of birdland would be clamoring to sign him and cursing the warehouse if he got away. Now after after Davis hit 50+ bombs it seems like anything less is a failure. Its just like the the Ravens. I remember when this town was electric just for the playoffs. Now its SB or bust every year. I hope the Davis haters remember what we had after playing this season to your projected numbers and signs elsewhere for big money. Davis will be solid and so will the O’s. Blog was spot on bud keep’m coing.
Great read.