Trade rumors are swirling, and O’s fans are being tortured and teased by the team’s reported “interest” in big names like David Price, Cole Hamels, Jon Lester, and Cliff Lee.
Regardless of whether or not the Orioles pull off a blockbuster trade for an ace, or stand pat at the deadline in hopes Ubaldo Jimenez can repeat last years second half success, the O’s are going to have to decide who stays in the rotation and who goes.
Pah! Ask that question before the All-Star break and it might have been a lot easier to come to an agreement. Now, Orioles starters have pitched to a 2.92 ERA in the second half of the season, and lowered their FIP below 4.00 to 3.43 (7th best in the AL, 12th in MLB).
Remember that huge concern about how none of last year’s playoff teams had a FIP over 4.00? Well, overall (going into Tuesday’s game) the Orioles pitching staff in the second half has pitched to a 3.17 ERA and 3.19 FIP; meaning that it has been the pitching – not stellar defense – behind the pitcher’s strong numbers.
It’s even more amazing when you consider they have done it while playing against the top two offenses in baseball – the Los Angeles Angels and Oakland Athletics.
Post All-Star break the Orioles starters’ numbers have looked like this:
Chris Tillman (pre-Tuesday): 0-0 2.13 ERA (3.69 FIP) .188 OppBA (.211 BABIP) 0.95 WHIP 6.39 K/9
Wei-Yin Chen: 2-0 2.08 ERA (3.52 FIP) .208 OppBA (.225 BABIP) 0.92 WHIP 4.85 K/9
Kevin Gausman: 1-1 5.06 ERA (2.85 FIP) .348 OppBA (.432 BABIP) 1.97 WHIP 7.59K/9
Bud Norris: 1-1 3.86 ERA (2.28 FIP) .292 OppBA (.412 BABIP) 1.63 WHIP 10.80 K/9
Miguel Gonzalez: 1-0 1.98 ERA (4.53 FIP) .220 OppBA (.233 BABIP) 1.24 WHIP 3.95 K/9
So who stays and who goes?
Well, first let’s start off by making it clear that neither Tillman or Chen (being the lone lefty) are going anywhere. That also being said, unless the Orioles shutdown Ubaldo for the year (unlikely), Jimenez is also going to featured in the five-man rotation when he returns in the second half of August – I mean, the Orioles didn’t dish out $50 million dollars for him not to pitch every fifth day.
So between the Orioles acquiring another starting pitcher, Jimenez’s return, and Buck’s attitude towards a six man rotation, one or two of the current starting five are going to have to be moved somewhere.
If one were to go purely by the numbers, Gausman would be the odd man out. Let’s be honest though, the young phenom is clearly the most talented starter in the Orioles rotation. Although, Kevin is still young and may not quite be ready for a pennant race. I myself would prefer to see the Orioles number two prospect be a mainstay in the rotation now and into the future.
Another option might be to send Miguel Gonzalez to the bullpen, or option him back to Triple A Norfolk to create space; still, that would be a tough call as Gonzo has been the O’s strongest starter in his last few outings.
In his last four starts, Miguel has thrown 29.2 innings – going into the 8th three times – while surrendering only six runs for a 1.82 ERA. Hard to give the boot to a guy who has been that red-hot.
Thus, the only final remaining option (my choice) is to move Bud Norris to the bullpen.
One could make the argument that Bud has been one of the most consistent starters for the Orioles this year and you wouldn’t be wrong. Norris has gone 8-7 with a 3.94 ERA and has stretches where he is dominant, but in a crowded rotation and with the way Gonzalez has been pitching it may be the best option.
Statistically, Norris has not had much success working out of the bullpen, holding a career 4.76 ERA as reliever in a small sample size of 5.2 innings. But conventional wisdom suggests that with Norris’s repertoire, a career 8.25 K/9 as a starter, and decent numbers against the split, Bud may be able to help the O’s down the stretch. A note worth mentioning is that in his brief appearances as a reliever, eight of his 17 outs were recorded via the strikeout.
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