Reality: Orioles starters need to lower pitch counts and go deeper in games.
Perception: The starting pitching staff for the Birds usually do pretty well through three or four innings. After that, there are no guarantees. Only Chris Tillman has averaged six innings per start. Each starter has give up more hits than innings pitched, while also having fewer than a strike outs per inning. Those two stats show that pitchers are needing too many pitches to get through games. And it’s showing in their records. Starters are 10-12, while the bullpen is 5-2 on the year.
The Orioles need their starters to work more efficiently. Thankfully, they have a full bullpen, and a real good crop of major league ready pitchers in AAA that can help. T.J. McFarland is expected to join the O’s today, while Kevin Gausman, Dylan Bundy, and Johan Santana could all be called up to help by the All-Star break.
Reality: As frustrating as this season has been early on, the Orioles are still in first place.
Perception: Heading into the start of a 3-game series in Tampa, the Orioles are currently tied with New York for first place in the AL East, one game above .500. They are 1.5 games in front of every other team in the AL East.
I’ve heard some people claiming the AL East is terrible. But that’s not the case. The Orioles have the fourth best winning percentage in the American League. How is that showing that the AL East is bad? It’s showing just how competitive almost every team in baseball is. 20 teams in MLB are within three games of a Wild Card spot. Just like the AL East, you have competitive divisions just beating each other up. It’s going to continue this way all season. Most teams will lose two of three and then win two of three. The key will be the team(s) that can string together a couple of winning streaks. Those will be the teams that separate themselves from the rest.
Reality: The better a few Orioles players do this year, the shorter their stays in Baltimore will be.
Perception: This is the catch-22 of where the Orioles stand. We all want the team to do well, but we better hope they win the World Series this season, because they may not have anyone left in a year or two to help make them competitive.
J.J. Hardy’s and Nelson Cruz’s contracts end when this season does. Chris Davis and Matt Wieters have one year left on their deals. Nick Markakis has a big option for next year, so he’s likely to become a free agent after this season.
If the Orioles can negotiate with Markakis to not pick up the option, but sign a long-term deal, they might be able to work out something. He’s not a top-tier player, but I think his great arm in right field and his quality at-bats at the top of the lineup prove that he is worth extending to keep on this team.
Cruz has proven so far to be the best off-season pick-up in all of baseball. As good as he has been and as good as his season could turn out to be, it might end up being bad for the Birds in the long run. If he continues to hammer home runs, he is going to be set for a major pay day after this season…probably pricing himself out of the Orioles’ budget.
Hardy needs to be re-signed, but if they don’t get something done during the season (which seems unlikely), then don’t be surprised to see him go into free agency to see what’s there. And remember, there is a team that wears pinstripes who will be looking for a shortstop.
That leaves Davis and Wieters. I think most of Baltimore had the sense that Wieters would not return to the Orioles after the 2015 season, but that Davis might be kept around. I’m just not so sure. They share an agent who likes his players to test free agency, and if both of those guys get there, you can bet the Orioles will be outbid. There just doesn’t seem to be anything tying either of them to staying in Baltimore long-term. Wieters is having a career year and Davis is a fan favorite. It will be tough to see either of them go.
photo: Craig Landefeld
