While Matt Wieters’ bat has started off the season on fire, reminding fans of his “Mauer with Power” nickname from when he was a prospect, has something happened to the Wieters that used to gun down opposing base stealers like he was in the movie “Hook?”
[youtube]http://youtu.be/Ty_QxHOeErw?t=28s[/youtube]
(0:28 mark)
In 19 games started this season, Wieters has thrown out just one of seven runners attempting to steal (.143 CS%), ranking 24th in the MLB. That one lone base stealer was Jacoby Ellsbury on April 7th, which feels like an eternity ago. Since then, Wieters has allowed four stolen bases.
Although Matt respectably still holds a 0.3 defensive WAR (tied for second highest in MLB), and has yet to allow a passed ball while committing only one defensive error (.993 Fld%), allowing 6/7 steals so far is jarring.
What happened to getting to yell “Don’t. Run. Ever.” the phrase coined by the folks at OBP Apparel, to every silly fool who dared to challenge Wieters arm? Is something wrong with Matty, or is it just a testament to how slow Orioles pitchers are taking to deliver the ball to the plate in 2014?
First, let’s take a look at who Wieters has surrendered these stolen bases to: Austin Jackson, Rajai Davis, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brock Holt, Grady Sizemore, and Alcides Escobar.
Four out of the six have had 30-plus stolen bases in a given season (Davis, Ellsbury, Sizemore, and Escobar), and two of those (Ellsbury and Davis) had years of 50 or more steals in a season. I think it is safe to say that Wieters hasn’t been giving up any bases to any Molina-esque (or Wieters-esque, for that matter) base runners.
So are O’s pitchers giving Matt a chance?
Well, of the six SB, five have come against two of the Orioles starters who are notoriously slow to the plate: Bud Norris (2) and Ubaldo Jimenez (3).
MLB Scouting Report describes Bud Norris’s delivery as “easy to run on,” and Jimenez’s as “really easy to run on.” Not exactly Mike Mussina.
A “speedy” base runner will get from first to second in about 3.25 seconds; therefore, a pitcher’s delivery and the throw down to second have to be less than that time in order to have a chance of making a play.
Wieters is known for having one of the best “pop” times (average of 1.9s or better) of any catcher. That’s the time it takes from the ball hitting the catcher’s mitt to the tag at 2nd base. With this in mind, simple subtraction says that O’s pitchers must have a delivery time of 1.35s or better to give Wieters a chance.
Neither Norris or Jimenez are near that 1.35s mark, so if Wieters wants a chance at throwing out a runner he may need to take a page out of the book of pirate baseball tactics (above video).
It’s worth mentioning that on April 22, Wieters mentioned he had some tightness in his right forearm but only sat out for one game.
Wieters is certainly doing some damage with the stick, but he is going to need some help from his pitching staff. No team can afford to give teams extra bases, so Buck and pitching coach Dave Wallace are going to have to nip this in the bud while they can.
Or else we can say goodbye to the phrase “Don’t. Run. Ever.” and say hello to “Run. At. Will.” At least, when Jimenez and Norris are on the mound, that is.
