Chris Tillman saw his LOB% jump to a career-high 80.5% in 2013. In fact that mark was the sixth best among starters last season. It’s no coincidence that the O’s starter pitched to a 3.71 ERA (113 ERA+) over 206.1 innings pitched.
Leaving more guys on base = less runners crossing home. Duh.
But what does it mean? Beyond The Box Score’s Alex Skillin featured Tillman’s LOB% in a recent post about 2013′s best starters at stranding runners.
The Orioles right-hander saw his LOB% rise to 80.5% last year after a more normal 71.4% in 2012, something that should immediately spark off alarm bells. Significant increases like that are almost certain to correct themselves over a larger sample, and there is little in Tillman’s track record that suggests he can replicate his 2013 performance. The 25-year-old has just one pitch (his curveball) that yielded above-average results last season, and his 21.2% strikeout rate was just slightly better than league average. Tillman’s elevated LOB% was a big reason why he outperformed his FIP last year, and I would bet that is 3.71 ERA is due to rise this season.
It’s hard to disagree with Skillin’s assessment of Tillman’s LOB%. That dramatic jump is likely that reason that many projections see Tillman’s ERA and FIP increasing in 2014. No, it’s not because they hate the Orioles. Steamer, Oliver, ZiPS and PECOTA all project Tillman’s BABIP allowed to rise from 2013 (.269) as well.
If you examine his H/9, HR/9 and BB/9 you’ll noticed that the numbers were very close between 2012 and 2013.
Read more on Chris Tillman at BaltimoreSportsReport.com…
One Response
I don’t see Tillman regressing at all, I think he lowers his ERA because of the type of mindset he has and how he assesses and goes about handling situations.
Chris is smart. Smart is not something that can be measured with just statistics, regardless of how advanced those statistics are. I mean, people act as if his statistics are rigged or it was just “luck” that Tillman was that good in situations with inherited runners. Reality is, he (buck)les down and doesn’t give in to the moment. Some people call it luck or a fluke that Tillman was that good in those specific circumstances, but can’t it just be possible that he has finally put it all together, much like another Chris on this ball club?
It’s just funny to me how wrong seemingly everyone has been about this Os team the past few years. Two years ago they were projected to lose a hundred games and ended up making the playoffs and almost advancing without their best player at the time (Markakis). Last year the team had more glaring holes than the previous year and Jim Johnson couldn’t close out ballgames, yet they still won 85 games. This year people are still labeling the Os a fourth place team despite being better in virtually every category than the previous two years. Not that this is what the article is about, just making a point.
Reality is, Tillman was called up for a few major league stints before 2012 and was awful. He comes up in 2012 and was absolutely dominant, lowering his ERA from the 5-6 range to below three. So my point is…he is obviously getting better, it isn’t just luck. Even if his inherited runners percentage goes down I highly doubt his ERA or other numbers take a significant dip, if any, because I do see him being better and I do see his WHIP being in around the 1.12-1.17 range, as opposed to 1.23, which is what I think it was last season.
I do believe Tillman will be even better this season than last, nothing leads me to believe that he will digress in any way. I have watched all of his games and just from the eye test and how well he has pitched in extreme situations is obvious (to me at least) that he has what it takes to be dominant. And that concludes my article. Hahaha.