In a magical 2012 season during which the Orioles won as many games (93) as they had lost the year before, the BUCKle Up Birds boasted a single pitcher with double digit wins: Taiwanese rookie Wei-Yin Chen. The young lefty impressed me, but the pitcher who really caught my eye was a righty who spent two large portions of the season in the minor leagues.
Miguel Gonzalez was called up on May 29th and made a couple appearances in relief before being sent back to Triple-A Norfolk. He returned at the beginning of June and got another relief appearance under his belt before joining the starting rotation. Gonzalez fit in nicely, posting quality starts in two of his first three outings. He hit a bit of a rough spot at the end of July, giving up 11 earned runs in 2 starts vs. Tampa Bay and at New York.
The rookie responded by casually posting a 1.91 ERA in the month of August, including seven shutout innings each against the same Tampa Bay and New York teams that had previously given him trouble. No big deal.
Miguel is the type of pitcher who quietly goes about his business. As a member of the tarp crew last season, I spent a good deal of time in the bullpen and I witnessed Miguel’s reserved personality first hand. While guys like Luis Ayala, Pedro Strop, and Tommy Hunter were being their goofy selves, Gonzalez liked to mind his own business and watch the game. Every once in a while he would shake my hand, ask how I was, and sit next to me for an inning or two. He was humble and didn’t view himself above anyone else, even the kids who raked his mound and scrubbed his pitching rubber.
Gonzalez finished off the regular season with four consecutive quality starts to give him ten for the year. A 9-4 record paired with a 3.25 ERA made Miguel look great on paper, but it was his poise that really stood out to me. Of his 15 starts, 10 of them came against American League East rivals and 9 of them were on the road.
Did I mention he allowed only one run on five hits with eight strikeouts and no walks in seven innings pitched in his first career postseason start which just so happened to come at Yankee Stadium? Yeah, that happened. Had he not fallen victim to the O’s untimely cold bats and Raul Ibanez’s (evil) late inning heroics, Gonzalez would have recorded the win in that contest as well.
Miguel Gonzalez’s impressive rookie campaign was not a fluke.
This is the part where hardcore statisticians call me out for not mentioning the fact that Gonzalez’s BABIP was one of the lowest in the league. For those of you who don’t know sabermetrics, BABIP with regards to a pitcher stands for the opponent’s Batting Average on Balls In Play. In other words, anything that isn’t a strikeout, walk, home run, hit by pitch, or error. The average BABIP is somewhere around .290-.300. Miguel posted an abnormally low .254 BABIP, meaning he must have gotten lucky and is due for some bad luck this season.
Here’s my take: Forget about BABIP. There’s a difference between luck and natural talent. I’ve watched Miguel throw bullpen sessions. The mechanics are there. The confidence is there. The skill is there. He makes smart, quality pitches to force outs. That’s not “luck”, that’s fundamental baseball.
Gonzalez’s BABIP was comparable to that of Jared Weaver, Matt Cain, and Clayton Kershaw. These are pitchers who have proven themselves as superstars. Is Miguel Gonzalez as good as Jared Weaver? No. Should he be mentioned in the same sentence as Matt Cain? Probably not. Can he post a Kershaw-esque ERA? I don’t think so. Is he capable of winning 15 games and acting as the ace of the Orioles’ staff? I believe he is.
My prediction: 15-8, 3.74 ERA, 145 K, 52 BB.
